Last updated: Wednesday, Sept. 23 at 6:00 p.m. ET
The Phillies are closing in on another trip to October. Where that trip begins is far from settled.
With five games remaining, the Phillies enter Wednesday tied with the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres at 87-70. The Arizona Diamondbacks sit four games behind the trio at 83-74 and remain alive for the final National League Wild Card spot.
Atlanta has already clinched the NL East, leaving the Phillies to fight for positioning in the Wild Card field. And there is a big difference between finishing first, second or third in that race.
MLB’s current postseason outlook has Chicago as the No. 4 seed, Philadelphia at No. 5 and San Diego at No. 6. If the season ended today, the Phillies would travel to Wrigley Field for a best-of-three Wild Card Series against the Cubs, while the Padres would visit the Braves.
The race for the No. 4 seed comes with home-field advantage. The top Wild Card hosts every game of the best-of-three series against the No. 5 seed. The No. 6 seed travels to face the third-best division winner.
Here’s where everything stands entering Wednesday night.
NL Wild Card standings
SeedTeamRecordGB4Chicago Cubs87-70—5Philadelphia Phillies87-70—6San Diego Padres87-70——Arizona Diamondbacks83-744.0
All three Wild Card teams have identical records, but MLB uses tiebreakers instead of playing an extra Game 163 to settle ties.
What do the Phillies need to clinch?
The Phillies enter Wednesday with a magic number of two to secure their fifth consecutive postseason berth. Chicago’s magic number is one, while San Diego also sits at two.
For the Phillies, Wednesday’s possibilities are straightforward:
Phillies win + Diamondbacks loss = clinch
Phillies win + Padres loss = clinch
If the Phillies win but both Arizona and San Diego also win, Philadelphia will have to wait at least one more day.
If the Phillies lose to Milwaukee, they cannot clinch Wednesday.
The inclusion of San Diego is important. A Padres loss can clinch a spot for Philadelphia even if Arizona wins. That comes from MLB’s official postseason and tiebreaker calculations, which account for the possible multi-team finishes over the final week. MLB specifically lists a Phillies win combined with a loss by either Arizona or San Diego as a clinching scenario.
San Diego can also clinch Wednesday with a Padres win and Diamondbacks loss. Chicago can clinch with either a Cubs win or an Arizona loss.
Why are the Cubs ahead of the Phillies?
Head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker when two clubs finish with identical records.
The Cubs went 6-1 against the Phillies this season, giving Chicago the tiebreaker over Philadelphia.
The Phillies went 6-0 against the Padres, giving Philadelphia the tiebreaker over San Diego.
Chicago also went 5-1 against San Diego. Those season-series results are listed in MLB’s tiebreaker chart on page 4 of the postseason outlook.
So, in the current three-way tie, the order is:
4. Chicago
5. Philadelphia
6. San Diego
If all three clubs were to finish the season tied, Chicago’s winning record against both Philadelphia and San Diego gives the Cubs the first advantage under MLB’s multi-team tiebreaker procedure. Philadelphia’s 6-0 record against San Diego would then give the Phillies the edge between the remaining two clubs. MLB’s three-team procedure first looks for a club with a superior record against both of the other tied clubs before moving through the remaining tiebreakers.
Philadelphia and Arizona split their six games, 3-3. If those two clubs finish tied and a two-team tiebreaker is needed, MLB would move to the next criterion: intradivision winning percentage.
What does each Phillies seed mean?
No. 4 seed: The Phillies win the Wild Card race and host the No. 5 seed at Citizens Bank Park. Every game of the best-of-three series would be in Philadelphia.
No. 5 seed: The Phillies travel to face the No. 4 seed. As things stand Wednesday, that would mean a series at Wrigley Field against the Cubs.
No. 6 seed: The Phillies travel to face the No. 3 seed. Atlanta currently owns that spot as NL East champion.
The winner of the 4/5 series advances to face the No. 1 seed, currently Milwaukee. The winner of the 3/6 series faces the No. 2 seed, currently the Dodgers.
The Wild Card Series begins Tuesday, Sept. 29, with Games 2 and 3 scheduled for Sept. 30 and Oct. 1. All games are played at the home park of the No. 3 or No. 4 seed.
Remaining schedules
DatePhilliesCubsPadresDiamondbacksWed. Sept. 23vs. MILvs. MIAat LADat COLThu. Sept. 24vs. MILvs. MIAat LADat COLFri. Sept. 25vs. TBat BOS, DHvs. AZat SDSat. Sept. 26vs. TBat BOSvs. AZat SDSun. Sept. 27vs. TB—*vs. AZat SD
The Cubs’ originally scheduled Sunday game in Boston was moved to Friday afternoon because of the threat of severe weather. Chicago and Boston are now scheduled for a split doubleheader Friday, followed by Saturday’s game.
That final Padres-Diamondbacks series is especially notable because the two teams directly behind or alongside the Phillies will take wins away from one another over the final three days.
Wednesday, September 23
Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies
6:40 p.m. ET | Citizens Bank Park
Pitching matchup: Logan Henderson vs. Aaron Nola
Result: TBD
Games to watch
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs, 7:40 p.m. ET
Chicago is tied with Philadelphia but owns the tiebreaker.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET
An Arizona loss combined with a Phillies win clinches a postseason berth for Philadelphia.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET
A San Diego loss combined with a Phillies win also clinches a postseason berth for Philadelphia. The Padres are tied with the Phillies, but Philadelphia owns their head-to-head tiebreaker.
What Wednesday’s results would mean
Phillies win + Diamondbacks loss: Phillies clinch.
Phillies win + Padres loss: Phillies clinch.
Phillies win + Diamondbacks and Padres both win: No clinch Wednesday, but Philadelphia improves its position in the race for home-field advantage.
Phillies loss: No clinch Wednesday.
Thursday, September 24
Friday, September 25
Saturday, September 26
Sunday, September 27