True Believers, g’day to everyone.
Well, a Win is a Win, and you get the four points, regardless of how you got there.
Wasn’t particularly happy with that performance though it gave us the four points and allows us to head into The Finals probably from the Top 4. Now it’s a different game.
Who do you reckon as Premiership favourites? The teams that scare me most on our passage to the Premiership are Geelong (forgot them last week), WB and Hawthorn; would be happy with R24 reducing one of them.
Go Pies.
Round 24
Collingwood 11.16.82 defeated Melbourne 11.10.76. Scoring shots 27 / 21, a significant difference.
Goals:
Q1 2 (us) / 3 (them). 9 scoring shots (us) to 3 (them) for the Quarter. Margin at the first break + (positive) 1 Point;
Q2 4 / 2. Up and down, then 3 goals scored by us. An extended period late Q2 and early Q3 had virtually no score (in fact – 3 Behinds). Margin at HT + 13 Points;
Q3 1 / 5. Late Q3 included 4 goals scored against us. Margin at final break – (negative) 10 Points;
Q4 4 / 1. After an early Melbourne start, we scored 4 unanswered goals; and
Total 11 / 11. Winning margin + 6 Points.
Statistics
Some numbers to seek to identify where there was a substantial difference and how this reflected the game:
Statistic
Us / Them
Comments
Disposals
347 / 396
Reflecting their game style – ‘ball-ownership’. See further comments under Possession, below. Handball – 115 / 168 – a huge difference in a statistic that we usually pride ourselves on.
Hit Outs (HO)
29 / 27
A not-useful number decided by whichever ruck touches the ball first. A better assessment is ‘HO to advantage’, which I don’t have. And a much, much better measure is under Clearances, below.
This number surprised me – I thought we were routinely beaten – the equivalence wasn’t evident to me watching.
Clearances
Centre clearances:
Stoppage clearances:
26 / 38
9 / 14
17 / 24
My observation of this was that they ‘destroyed us’, particularly from the Centre, as reflected in these numbers. Their substantial dominance of Clearances is evident here.
This is a much better measure than the HO and should have indicated a major advantage to them in the next steps – Inside 50s and, ultimately, scoring. Broadly speaking, this didn’t happen.
Inside 50s
52 / 55
The degree of our Clearance deficiency is not reflected in the Inside 50 numbers.
This reflects a pretty substantial difference, negatively reflecting that we had fewer entries into goal-scoring positions. See DE below regarding how we used them.
Disposal Efficiency (DE)
74.4% / 76.5%
Across the whole game. They were marginally cleaner throughout.
DE Inside 50
53.8% / 40.0%
This difference here is huge. These numbers reflect a massive advantage to us.
Linking Inside 50s and DE inside 50 mean they got the ball into the 50 (broadly, into a scoring position) more frequently, but we used it far more effectively (scored) when we got it there.
This represents the overlapping of the different statistics. You could undoubtedly work out a mathematical relationship based on historical figures, however I don’t intend to do so. Needless to say, the 6% deficiency in Inside 50 numbers was, obviously matched by this 30% DE advantage.
Goals scored
11 / 11
The result.
Player numbers with game DE of 80%
9 / 9
Free Kicks
22 / 23
This surprised me. I thought that we were unfairly penalised, particularly early on – my TV is tired of being berated. Again, it was the offences not identified rather than those that were, with consistent areas of concern – caught with ball, failure to dispose correctly, in the back in tackles, etc. There were a number of ‘late pushes after a mark’ not penalised; and some that were. Critically, it was the Frees awarded ‘at the death’ that are always of most concern.
Contested Possession (CP)
107 / 134
Interesting – Possession was dominated, both CP and UCP by them. This may reflect a game style in periods where they sought to pass the ball round the boundary with short kicks and safe marks, sometimes coming unstuck. Of course, we applied the same style at times, also occasionally coming unstuck.
I like it when the ball is locked in our attacking half, of course, as it seemed to be for extended periods, unfortunately without useful scoring. Note later comment – scoring a Behind is giving ball possession at a trivial cost.
Uncontested Possession (UCP)
222 / 252
Turnovers
58 / 67
Not too different.
Possession
43% / 42%
Watching, you’d pretty much identify periods when the ball was in our possession with much shorter periods when it raced the length of the field and scored or they did the same thing against the flow of the game. As such, I don’t understand this equivalence here.
Last 10 minutes of game: 36% / 23%. More easily understood.
Marks
Marks inside 50
Contested marks
123 / 110
19 / 10
10 / 15
We were seriously out-marked in Contested Marks. particularly by their Backs. It reflects the failure of the delivery, to packs, rather than leading individuals.
Marks inside 50 principally reflected good targeting rather than good marking. The Contested Marking deficiency reinforces this.
Tackles
Tackles inside 50
49 / 40
8 / 6
This reflects a substantial advantage to us. It highlights our boys’ application. Importantly, the numbers Inside 50s, as above, contribute to scoring.
1%’ers
36 / 37
Spoils and defensive actions. Not too different.
Best:
The AFL website identifies Collingwood’s Best as:
NickD – the master even with a close tag;
Pendles – outstanding ‘man in charge of the midfield’;
Cameron – great performance against the undoubted best ruck in the competition, significantly aided by his work around the ground;
Schultz – dynamic;
Elliott – give the guy, the ‘nearly mark of the year’ – pity it went by; and
De Goey -see below.
Really good to see JDG get a mention – I thought his contribution was significant – loved that goal that Pendles passed to him. I wouldn’t disagree with any of those selected, maybe the order, but would suggest a couple of others – Maynard (16 Disposals @ 93.8% DE, 385 metres Gained, 4 Score Involvement, 4 Intercept Possessions, 2 Contested Possessions and 1 Inside 50) and McCreery (note his medical treatment during the game; 18 D @ 77.8%, 222 mG, 8 SI, 3 IP, 4 CP and 4 I50). Long also had a good day at the office noting his 226 mG, 5 Tackles and 4 CP. Steele, also in spite of his late arrival replacing Howe, did well with 196 mG, 2 SI and 2 CP. Well done.
Occasionally, not frequently, it is worthwhile having a look at opposing players. Here we have:
NickD / Langdon – 27 D @ 70.4% DE (NickD) / 14 D @ 64.3% DE (Langdon), 6 / 0 Marks, 5 / 2 Tackles, 453 / 311 mG, 5 / 2 Clearances and 4 / 4 SI. I don’t have any doubt who Won that competition. In reality, however, the measure of success will be in a comparison between a reduction in effectiveness of the target against the loss of the contribution by the tagger to his team. Here, there is a pretty obvious reduction in NickD’s Disposals, but the reduction in Langdon’s contribution seems far greater. NickD Won.
The Coaches’ Votes not yet released.
It was a much better performance. We were smiling. With a little good fortune, and ball bounce, we could (should) have Won this by a substantial margin. Right now, that doesn’t matter; some aspects for future games are worth pursuing.
Your thoughts?
Crowd: 60,611.
Result: This was a big improvement, but …
I think we coordinated between players much better however there were periods when, against the flow of the game, they got away from us – Q1 their 3 scoring shots were against our 9. We appeared unable to control these break-away moves. Although only for limited periods, their scoring was effective against our kicking. Our kicking early on was awful.
Ball-handling was pretty good by both teams.
The close scoring equivalence was reflected in their advantage represented by Inside 50 numbers counteracted (obviously to a degree) by our massive dominance in Disposal Efficiency inside 50 numbers.
We still badly need to put together a ‘Kick-in’ plan, both as a negative to stop their kick-ins and as a positive to facilitate ours.
High kicks into the 50 to packs, that we seemed to revert to, is not the best avenue to the Forwards (or out of our Backline) even with Cox (if he was playing) or Cameron as targets. Much better avenues are lower, harder kicks to specific targets, moving in different directions to confuse the defenders. The speed of high kicks also allowed defenders to intercept or, at the least disrupt, the passage of the ball.
In summary, we Won, but not comprehensively.
Next
Now there’s a good question. Next weekend is a week off. The following weekend is FW1 (presumable Finals Week 1). Likely games, of significance to us:
So the rest of R24 is significant. Some issues to be resolved, with best guesses:
Adelaide to Win over North, even at Marvel – stay Top.
Expect Geelong to Win over Richmond at the MCG – stay 2nd, unless Adelaide Loses, then they go to the Top and Adelaide drops to 2nd;
BL meet Hawthorn at the Gabba. If Hawthorn Wins they could jump over BL and us into 3rd position with BL dropping to 5th; us to 4th. If BL Wins they move to 3rd and we drop to 4th too – potential opponents FW1 – Adelaide at AO or Geelong at the MCG;
GWS, meeting St Kilda, are likely to stay 6th;
WB versus Freo at Marvel will decide 7th, 8th and 9th. If Freo Wins they could move, theoretically into the Top 4 subject to their percentage. In that situation, and if the GC beat Essendon in that final H&A game, the WB will be pushed out of the Eight. If they Lose they are likely to drop out of the Eight with both the WB and GC moving up, noting the GC has another game, against Essendon,
Watch the Ladder, as this weekend (and next Wednesday) progresses.
Date / Time / Location?
TBD.
An Opponent?
TBA.
Us:
Context? We have dropped to 4th place on the Ladder (actually today we are 3rd, as I am writing). If Adelaide stays in the top position we could end up in FW1 facing Adelaide at AO. I am confident we could defeat Adelaide , even given their home crowd. Your thoughts?
Changes? We need our best team for this game again. Injuries and their significance are not yet confirmed – absolutely critical. Suggested changes:
Outs: Howe (Injured?), Mihocek (Injured?), McCreery (Injured?), McStay, Lipinski. Your suggestions?
Ins: Cox, Hill, Steene, Cochran and De Mattia;
Your thoughts?
Game Plan – No changes of substance from past. A couple of points, as usual:
Application. Nothing is more important. Positives and negatives totally demonstrated in our last few games. And Attitude is King.
Taggers. Tagging roles might be useful, including an occasional hard lock-down role on their Forwards / Midfield? And protecting our players? That should also be key.
Midfield Management. Pendles guidance / on-field coaching to the collective Midfield remains critical.
Passing. Accuracy of passes by foot and hand is critical. Remember a misdirected pass resulting in a turnover of the ball passes possession to our opponent, immediately shifting control of the game to them.
Drive. Drive out of the Backline is usually a key part of our game plan– much better in Adelaide. Kick-ins are a continuing issue – we need to have a plan that everyone knows and is able to implement.
Kicking for Goal. This was awful early in our last game. Instead of being 3 or 4 goals up, the margin at the first break was a single Point. The players need to consider and apply the willingness to pass the ball inside the 50. The key players with the ability to kick the hard goal is laudable, but not always successful. Ball delivery needs to be to the best goal-kicking position. Importantly, scoring a Behind is a waste – for 1 Point you hand over ball-possession to the opposition. It’s not worth it – get the ball into a better position.
Tackles. Still a failing with opponents spinning out of tackles or brushing off the tackler. This has been one of our strengths this season; we need to get it back. Love the multiple tacklers.
Our Aim? Be happy. Worth reinforcing – our team, yes, we are part of it, were incredibly dour during the OR game against GWS in Sydney; same against Hawthorn a couple of weeks or so ago. Everyone, players and supporters, need to get the smile back.
Summary? We should Win our next game to give our team another week off, following. The danger is our frequent approach to playing our opponent at their strength. This has to stop. We have to pursue the game to our standard regardless of who we are playing. So? Go for the Jugular. Seek to Win well (and take the stress pressure of we, long-suffering, Pies’ supporters).
Winning Selection. Collingwood to Win by ……; BOG: ………………………………………………Goal kickers…………………………………..
TV: FTA coverage not yet out. Go to to monitor. Or go to Kayo or Fox Footy.
Weather: Watch the weather conditions in Melbourne. Boots?
Ground Reports? I hope some of you are going, regardless of the opposition, whenever that is on, and where? Reports please (after or before)? I’d especially like to hear from the armchair warriors watching from afar?
Other:
AFLW – Happening, as I write. R2, GWS are currently leading at Vic Park. R3, next, is against Melbourne (sitting on top of the Ladder against our 14thplace) on Sunday, 31 August also at Vic Park; bounce at 1.05pm. Good luck, ladies.
VFL – Next game tomorrow – Collingwood (7thon Ladder) versus Williamtown (10th) at Vic Park; bounce at 2.05pm. Go boys.
VFLW team – Terrific start, ladies. First two Finals’ games from 2ndplace on the Ladder – FW1: beating North by 13 Points (North placed on the top of the Ladder) and SF: beating BH Hawks by 25 Points (BH placed 3rd on the Ladder). Next – a week off, I think, then another Prelim Final, or straight to the Grannie. Good luck, ladies.
Anything else, everyone?
Next:
Finals. Note there is a week off next weekend.
This is our year; still believe! Always believe; never, ever give up! Go Pies.
Cam
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