Lead researcher, Dr Ellie Paige, said the findings represent an important shift in how cardiovascular risk is identified.
“More than twice as many Australians now fall into the intermediate-risk category, where a conversation with a GP about treatment could save their life,” she said.
The revised calculator was introduced in 2023 and is based on contemporary Australian data from more than 400,000 people.
It replaces an older US-developed model that was known to overestimate risk for many Australians while underestimating risk among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.
The updated tool also considers a broader range of factors, including social disadvantage, existing heart medications, and a history of atrial fibrillation, a common heart rhythm disorder.
Older Australians are urged to know their level of risk.
The Heart Foundation recommends that Australians aged 45 years and over talk to their GP about having their cardiovascular risk assessed. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people are encouraged to start these discussions from age 30, while people with diabetes aged over 35 should also consider a cardiovascular health check.
Experts say the new calculator could potentially prevent thousands of heart attacks and strokes before they occur.