College basketball remains a bizarre sport to tackle in the NIL/transfer portal era. When teams hire a new head coach, there are two types of fans for said team: the ones that expect immediate success, and the ones that understand that things still take time despite some exceptions that we have seen. With NIL and the portal creating a perpetual revolving door, it’s fair to expect schools with a big budget to figure it out and get to the Final Four, new coach and all. In the case of Michael Malone, that is exactly what he is facing, whether fair or not.

UNC has looked pretty rough through exhibition play, and again, there have been two different reactions: some are pessimistic, and some are ignoring the results because the games don’t matter. The truth is somewhere in the middle — the results do not matter, but also there are some very real reasons to be concerned. Still, there are some things that are very fixable, and some there are not. With that in mind, we wanted to take some time and discuss what we think are the best and worst-case scenarios for the 2026-27 Tar Heels. Let’s dive in.

Since we started with the best outcome last year, let’s begin by discussing the worst. There are two glaring issues with this team that are extremely concerning: rebounding, and turnovers. Turnovers can be easily fixed, and it’s possible that we see fewer during the regular season because of better rotations, smarter passes, and overall more focused play. The thing, though, is that I’m not completely sold on Neo Avdalas or Terrence Brown as primary ball handlers. Avdalas has been especially egregious with his turnovers, but he was also responsible for a lot of positive plays against Charlotte. But in a worst-case scenario, this Avdalas/Brown experiment is a huge failure, and that can (and will) spell trouble for the Tar Heels.

On the rebounding front, the two lines of thinking are that it’s a team effort, but also you need size. Right now Cameron Fens is ineligible to play for the Heels, so Sayon Keita, Alexandros Samodurov, and Jarin Stevenson will be that much more important when it comes to working the boards. But what if they don’t figure it out? What if the effort never shows up? We’ve seen a couple of Carolina teams struggle on the boards before, and it ultimately led to a lot of problems.

With the NCAA Tournament field expanding to 76 teams, it would be really bad if the Heels somehow didn’t make it. That said, I don’t think the Heels will be “first four out” bad or whatever they call that particular scenario moving forward. But making it means a bit less if you’re one of the last ones in, and it means even less if you…say…get knocked out in the first round by VCU? That could happen to this team, but let’s remember: this is a rebuild year, and the ideal Michael Malone roster is likely arriving next year. It’d be frustrating, all I will probably do is shrug and count the days until the 2027-28 season.

Worst-Case Scenario: Finishing in the middle of the ACC, losing in the Quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament, and losing in the first round of the NCAA Tournament

Things get really interesting when thinking about the best possible outcome for this year’s team. The obvious thing here is that Cameron Fens needs to be deemed eligible for the best outcome possible. His post presence is something that this team would need in order to have the best chance to achieve their goals, so hopefully things end up working out.

Still, outside of Fens, the Tar Heels have a lot of talent that can get them pretty far. Neo Avdalas, Terrence Brown, and Matt Able still have the potential to be a really good backcourt that is built for the NCAA Tournament. Jarin Stevenson still has the potential to take a meaningful step forward not only as a player, but as one of the leaders for this team. Finally, when looking at the starting lineup, there is Sayon Keita, whose talent was on full display during exhibition. Missing Fens hurts this team quite a bit, but Keita is a more than capable starter, though his ceiling this season probably isn’t All-American high.

Then there’s the bench — Maximo Adams is a really good sixth man for the Tar Heels, and has the potential to be one of the better freshmen in the country. Alexandros Samodurov, Isaiah Denis, and Jaydon Young all gave the Heels good minutes during exhibition, and if the three reach their ceiling, the Heels will be really hard to deal with depth-wise. UNC may not have the depth that the team in Durham has — yes, I had to bring it up, and yes, I am also tired of hearing about it — but they do have enough to do some damage in the ACC.

Michael Malone is a good enough coach to take this roster and turn it into a team that will be able to frustrate a lot of opponents this season. If most of the roster reach close to their ceiling and the rebound/turnover issues are resolved, this can be a really good team. But here’s the thing: I don’t think this is a Final Four team. It’s honestly hard to say that they’re even an Elite Eight team, but it’s not impossible. This feels like a team whose ceiling is the Sweet Sixteen, but the ACC is likely going to be a gauntlet that they’re not built to win. I would love to be wrong, but something tells me that is not the case.

Best-Case Scenario: Third place ACC Finish, losing in the ACC Semifinals, and a Sweet Sixteen finish as a four-seed