Four players are already in: Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz, Ben Shelton and Daniil Medvedev. Jannik Sinner, second in the PIF ATP Live Race to Turin, is out for the rest of the season, so ninth place is the last place in. The four remaining places are held this morning by Flavio Cobolli (3,690 points), Arthur Fils (3,535), Frances Tiafoe (3,430) and Alex de Minaur (3,210). Jodar is 10th, one point behind de Minaur.

Race to Turin before the Rolex Paris Masters

#Player Pts
1Alexander Zverev
Qualified · Paris: No. 1, bye9,350
2Jannik Sinner
Out for the season7,950
3Carlos Alcaraz
Qualified · Paris: No. 2, bye5,110
4Ben Shelton
Qualified · Paris: No. 3, bye4,530
5Daniil Medvedev
Qualified · Paris: No. 4, bye3,860
Qualified: 4 of 8 places
6Flavio Cobolli
Paris: No. 5, bye3,690
7Arthur Fils
Paris: No. 6, bye3,535
8Frances Tiafoe
Paris: No. 7, bye3,430
9Alex de Minaur
Paris: No. 8, bye3,210
Last place in: 9th
10Rafael Jodar
Paris: No. 9, vs. Alejandro Tabilo3,209
11Novak Djokovic
Paris: No. 10, vs. Valentin Vacherot2,900
12Taylor Fritz
Paris: No. 11, vs. Benjamin Bonzi2,895
13Tommy Paul
Paris: No. 12, vs. Holger Rune2,775
14Jiri Lehecka
Paris: vs. Alex Michelsen2,580
16Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Paris: No. 13, vs. Moise Kouame2,520

PIF ATP Live Race to Turin, points since Jan. 1, Monday morning. Sinner is out for the season, so ninth place is the last place in. Mensik (2,545) and Auger-Aliassime (2,475) are not in the Paris draw.

Jodar has no margin

Jodar is the only contender whose week can end in his first match. If he loses to Tabilo, he is out of the race: the four men above him already have more than his 3,209 points, and none of them can lose any. A win would take him to 3,234 points, 24 ahead of de Minaur, who has a first-round bye.

Djokovic needs the semifinals at least

Djokovic is 11th with 2,900 points. Reaching the quarterfinals would take him to 3,090, still short of de Minaur’s current total, so the semifinals (3,290) are the minimum to stay alive. The title would take him to 3,890 and guarantee his place. Taylor Fritz, who opens against qualifier Benjamin Bonzi, is in the same situation: 3,285 with the semifinals, 3,885 with the title.

What each contender needs

Cobolli is the best placed. A run to the quarterfinals would make sure of his place, whatever happens elsewhere. Fils would need the semifinals, while Tiafoe, de Minaur and Jodar would need to reach the final to be certain of Turin. Djokovic, Fritz and Tommy Paul can only make sure of a place by winning the title.

What each contender needs in Paris

PlayerStill alive if he reachesSure of Turin if he reaches
Flavio CobolliAlready aliveQuarterfinals
Arthur FilsAlready aliveSemifinals
Frances TiafoeAlready aliveFinal
Alex de MinaurAlready aliveFinal
Rafael JodarSecond round (must win first match)Final
Novak DjokovicSemifinalsThe title
Taylor FritzSemifinalsThe title
Tommy PaulFinalThe title
Jiri LeheckaThe titleNot even with the title
Alejandro Davidovich FokinaThe titleNot even with the title

“Sure of Turin”: qualified whatever the other results, given the Paris draw. Calculated from the live Race’s points for each round. A tie on points is treated as not sure.

Further down, the chances are slimmer. Paul needs at least the final to stay in contention. Jiri Lehecka, beaten by Vacherot in the Basel final, and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who faces Brest champion Moise Kouame, can only hope with the title, and even that would not be enough on its own: it would depend on the others’ results.

Four possible duels in the third round

The draw has put four pairs of contenders in the same section, with a possible meeting in the third round: Djokovic against de Minaur, Paul against Tiafoe, Jodar against Cobolli and Fritz against Fils, a rematch of last week’s Basel quarterfinal. Djokovic, Paul, Jodar and Fritz would need two wins to get there, de Minaur, Tiafoe, Cobolli and Fils one. De Minaur and Jodar, separated by one point, are in opposite halves and can only meet in the final.

Race totals by round reached in Paris

PlayerOut 1stR16QFSFFW
Cobolli3,6903,7803,8804,0804,3304,680
Fils3,5353,6253,7253,9254,1754,525
Tiafoe3,4303,4803,5803,7804,0304,380
de Minaur3,2103,2603,3603,5603,8104,160
Jodar3,2093,2843,3843,5843,8344,184
Djokovic2,9002,9903,0903,2903,5403,890
Fritz2,8952,9853,0853,2853,5353,885
Paul2,7752,8252,9253,1253,3753,725
Lehecka2,5802,6302,7302,9303,1803,530
Davidovich Fokina2,5202,6102,7102,9103,1603,510

“Out 1st”: loses his first match. R16, QF, SF, F: total if he reaches that round. W: total with the title. For Jodar, Djokovic, Fritz, Paul, Lehecka and Davidovich Fokina, reaching the R16 means winning two matches; the seeds with a bye need one.

Sources: PIF ATP Live Race to Turin (live ranking, Monday morning); Rolex Paris Masters main draw and order of play, Monday, Nov. 2; 2026 ATP Rulebook (4.01, 9.03). Scenarios calculated from the live Race’s points for each round and the Paris draw.