A fortnight remains of the 2025 NRL regular season, and only one spot is left up for grabs in the top eight, but it could go down to the wire.
The race for the top four is almost over as well, but could shift late, while jockeying for position in terms of hosting or travelling for finals also remains in the offing for the concluding weeks, with a heap of big games to be played.
We have made another change to our tips for the weeks ahead, with the Raiders now forecast to beat the Dolphins in Round 27, although that still remains up in the air and could likely depend on whether Ricky Stuart elects to rest his troops with a home qualifying final locked in. But, for now at least, the minor premiership is still there for the taking.
Here are our tips for Round 26.
Canterbury Bulldogs lose to Penrith Panthers
New Zealand Warriors defeat Parramatta Eels
Melbourne Storm defeat Sydney Roosters
Canberra Raiders defeat Wests Tigers
St George Illawarra Dragons defeat Manly Sea Eagles
North Queensland Cowboys defeat Brisbane Broncos
Cronulla Sharks defeat Newcastle Knights
The Dolphins defeat Gold Coast Titans
Here is how the final two weeks of the run home are shaping for every team, as well as the best and worst-case scenarios available to each outfit.
1. Canberra Raiders
Current position: 1st, 42 points, + 172
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 26: Wests Tigers (home)
Round 27: The Dolphins (away)
The Raiders’ win over the Panthers means we are now forecasting them to take out the minor premiership again.
An excellent golden point victory tips them back ahead of the Melbourne Storm, provided they can also win their last two games.
If they drop either one, they could still wind up tied on points, and down on for and against.
At any rate, the Raiders have now locked in a home qualifying final, with Stuart’s side unable to fall any lower than second place on the table.
Likely finish: 1st
Change from last week: Up one spot
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 2nd
2. Melbourne Storm
Current position: 2nd, 40 points, + 258
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 26: Sydney Roosters (home)
Round 27: Brisbane Broncos (away)
The Storm are still in the mix for the minor premiership, but two points behind the Raiders, it is no longer in their hands.
That said, a for and against difference means the equation is simple. Win two from two, have the Raiders drop one, and they take home the regular season.
That’s not what Melbourne are interested in, though, and while we have them winning both games and finishing second, they will likely look to rest players for the trip to Brisbane in the final round as they did last year.
They can still drop to third, but would need two horrific losses, with the Bulldogs picking up two monstrous wins to overthrow a 140-point for and against differential.
Likely finish: 2nd
Change from last week: Down one spot
Best-case scenario: 1st
Worst-case scenario: 3rd
3. Canterbury Bulldogs
Current position: 3rd, 36 points, + 114
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 26: Penrith Panthers (home)
Round 27: Cronulla Sharks (home)
The Bulldogs are now mathematically out of the running for the minor premiership after coming up short against the Storm over the weekend, and realistically, a home qualifying final is long odds.
They should still finish in the top four, and would need a calamity of results to miss out, given the Panthers can no longer catch them.
Whether they travel to Canberra or Melbourne remains to be seen, though, with the Warriors only two points behind them and having a far easier run home.
Likely finish: 3rd
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 2nd
Worst-case scenario: 5th
4. New Zealand Warriors
Current position: 4th, 34 points, + 26
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 26: Parramatta Eels (home)
Round 27: Manly Sea Eagles (away)
The Warriors’ win over the Titans, combined with the Panthers’ loss to Melbourne, means they are now likely to finish in the top four.
One win from their final two games will be enough to lock that in, and with the Eels at home this week, you’d have to assume they will find a way.
Andrew Webster’s side will then likely face the trip to Canberra for Week 1 of the finals.
Likely finish: 4th
Change from last week: Up one spot
Best-case scenario: 3rd
Worst-case scenario: 7th
5. Brisbane Broncos
Current position: 5th, 32 points, + 148
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 26: North Queensland Cowboys (away)
Round 27: Melbourne Storm (home)
The Broncos have picked up four critical competition points over the last fortnight since key injuries to Adam Reynolds and Ezra Mam.
It means they are locked into the finals, now unable to miss the top eight, but where they finish still remains to be seen.
A slim chance at the top four remains alive with a pair of wins, but we don’t have them doing that, and instead, hanging onto seventh spot seems the most likely finish with a couple of losses to end the campaign.
Likely finish: 7th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 3rd
Worst-case scenario: 8th
6. Cronulla Sharks
Current position: 6th, 32 points, + 67
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 26: Newcastle Knights (home)
Round 27: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
The Sharks’ final bye of the season promoted them up the ladder to sixth spot, and that’s exactly where we have them finishing with a win over the Knights this week, and a loss to Canterbury in Round 27.
Like Brisbane, they can still reach the top four with a pair of wins and favourable results, but it seems unlikely.
They are locked into the finals, though, so the focus is on winning more than the Broncos and securing a home elimination final, rather than having to travel north for the opening week of the knockout rounds.
Likely finish: 6th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 3rd
Worst-case scenario: 8th
7. Penrith Panthers
Current position: 7th, 31 points, + 111
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 26: Canterbury Bulldogs (away)
Round 27: St George Illawarra Dragons (away – Wollongong)
A gut-wrenching couple of weeks for Penrith will likely cost them a spot in the top four unless everything goes perfectly from here on out.
Back-to-back golden point losses have been enough, with other results around the competition, to lock them into the finals, but it now appears they will have to do it the hard way from outside the top four.
They certainly need to get back on the horse this week against Canterbury to start building some momentum ahead of the finals.
Likely finish: 5th
Change from last week: Down one spot
Best-case scenario: 4th
Worst-case scenario: 8th
8. Sydney Roosters
Current position: 8th, 28 points, + 72
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 26: Melbourne Storm (away)
Round 27: South Sydney Rabbitohs (home)
The Roosters’ loss to the Eels puts them back in immediate and imminent danger of missing the top eight.
While the outfit has a two-point buffer, that could be lost this week when they travel to Melbourne to play the Storm without Sam Walker.
If that is the case, and if either Manly or the Dolphins win, it could well come down to them beating the Rabbitohs in the final round of the season, and that’s not a sure thing either.
At the moment, we will tip them to finish eighth, but that is anything but a guarantee.
Likely finish: 8th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 5th
Worst-case scenario: 11th
9. The Dolphins
Current position: 9th, 26 points, + 81
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 26: Gold Coast Titans (home)
Round 27: Canberra Raiders (home)
The Dolphins’ potential first-ever finals appearance hinges on other results, but securing a couple of wins will be their primary objective.
If they do that, and the Roosters drop a game, their for and against is good enough that they will play finals footy. It’s that simple.
Playing the Titans on the potential bounce after Des Hasler’s sacking, followed by the Raiders, though? Tough.
Likely finish: 9th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 8th
Worst-case scenario: 12th
10. Manly Sea Eagles
Current position: 10th, 26 points, + 4
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 26: St George Illawarra Dragons (away)
Round 27: New Zealand Warriors (home)
The Sea Eagles are somehow still alive.
They need a lot to go their way, though, if they are going to play finals footy. Two wins, the Roosters losing both, and the Dolphins dropping at least one.
The good thing for Manly is that they play the walking wounded Dragons, and then host the Warriors.
It’s doable, but it’s also on a hope and a prayer.
Likely finish: 10th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 8th
Worst-case scenario: 12th
11. Wests Tigers
Current position: 11th, 24 points, – 113
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 26: Canberra Raiders (away)
Round 27: Gold Coast Titans (away)
A really disappointing performance at a packed-out Leichhardt over the weekend ensures the Tigers are out of the finals race for good. They can still get there (technically), but would need roughly a 180-point for and against turnaround. It’s just not going to happen.
They can look to finish strongly and avoid the bottom four, though, with a couple of potentially winnable games.
Likely finish: 12th
Change from last week: Down one spot
Best-case scenario: 8th
Worst-case scenario: 15th
12. North Queensland Cowboys
Current position: 12th, 23 points, – 138
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 26: Brisbane Broncos (home)
Round 27: Bye
The Cowboys have the final bye of the season, which means there is just one game left.
We expect them to go out on a high and beat the Broncos, but it doesn’t mean they will play finals footy.
Their guaranteed two competition points mean they should avoid the bottom four, although it’s still a possibility.
Likely finish: 11th
Change from last week: Up two spots
Best-case scenario: 9th
Worst-case scenario: 15th
13. St George Illawarra Dragons
Current position: 13th, 22 points, – 94
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 26: Manly Sea Eagles (home)
Round 27: Penrith Panthers (home)
The Dragons have plenty out, but will be desperate to finish the season with a couple of home wins against Manly and Penrith.
We can see them knocking over Manly this week, but really, who knows?
Likely finish: 13th
Change from last week: Down one spot
Best-case scenario: 9th
Worst-case scenario: 16th
14. Parramatta Eels
Current position: 14th, 22 points, – 136
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 26: New Zealand Warriors (away)
Round 27: Newcastle Knights (home)
The Eels picked up two surprise competition points over the Roosters on the weekend, which should mean they avoid the bottom two.
We have them winning against the Knights in Round 27 to maintain 14th spot.
Likely finish: 14th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 9th
Worst-case scenario: 16th
15. South Sydney Rabbitohs
Current position: 15th, 22 points, – 151
Byes remaining: 1
Remaining games
Round 26: Bye
Round 27: Sydney Roosters (away)
A bye this weekend means the Rabbitohs can’t finish any lower than 15th, but we don’t expect them to improve their position in the final round.
Likely finish: 15th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 9th
Worst-case scenario: 15th
16. Newcastle Knights
Current position: 16th, 18 points, – 220
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 26: Cronulla Sharks (away)
Round 27: Parramatta Eels (away)
The Knights are a basket case. It’s as simple as that.
It would be a major surprise to see them win again this year, but they should avoid the wooden spoon.
Likely finish: 16th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 13th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
17. Gold Coast Titans
Current position: 17th, 16 points, – 201
Byes remaining: 0
Remaining games
Round 26: The Dolphins (away)
Round 27: Wests Tigers (home)
Like the Knights, the Titans are finished for 2025. They can still technically avoid the wooden spoon, and maybe there will be a bounce-back factor with Des Hasler sacked, but the wooden spoon should be in their destiny.
Likely finish: 17th
Change from last week: Nil
Best-case scenario: 16th
Worst-case scenario: 17th
Predicted final ladder
1. Canberra Raiders – 46 points
2. Melbourne Storm – 44 points
3. Canterbury Bulldogs – 38 points
4. New Zealand Warriors – 36 points
5. Penrith Panthers – 35 points
6. Cronulla Sharks – 34 points
7. Brisbane Broncos – 32 points
8. Sydney Roosters – 30 points
9. The Dolphins – 28 points
10. Manly Sea Eagles – 28 points
11. North Queensland Cowboys – 27 points
12. Wests Tigers – 26 points
13. St George Illawarra Dragons – 24 points
14. Parramatta Eels – 24 points
15. South Sydney Rabbitohs – 24 points
16. Newcastle Knights – 18 points
17. Gold Coast Titans – 16 points
Predicted Week 1 finals
Qualifying final 1:Canberra Raiders vs New Zealand Warriors at GIO Stadium, Canberra
Qualifying final 2: Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs at AAMI Park, Melbourne
Elimination final 1: Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters at CommBank Stadium, Parramatta
Elimination final 2: Cronulla Sharks vs Brisbane Broncos at Shark Park, Cronulla