You can’t go a day without a player movement story in the NRL and things are only going to get wilder this month as a stack of superstars can be offered contracts from rival clubs while still having a year to run on their current deals.
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The November 1 free agency window this year is the biggest yet thanks to the arrival of the PNG Chiefs, who will enter the competition in 2028.
There will be signings made in the coming weeks that will influence the futures of many clubs, both positively and negatively.
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Foxsports.com.au talked to two of the game’s biggest player agents, Steve Gillis and David Riolo, to get an inside look at how the next couple of months may play out as clubs battle to secure the best available talent on the open market.
THE CHIEFS ARE READY TO ROCK THE GAME
This year’s November 1 open market window is no doubt the biggest the game’s seen thanks to two things – the PNG Chiefs, and the recent broadcast rights deal.
The NRL this year announced a bumper $5.3 billion TV rights deal with Foxtel Group and Channel 9.
Rivers of gold are set to flow through the game and the announcement has had a big effect on player contracts according to leading player manager Gillis.
He told Foxsports.com.au that the word ‘ratchet clause’ has been heard more due to the broadcast deal.
“This year, probably more than I can remember, there’s a lot of high-profile players coming off (contract) which will attract the interest of multiple clubs,” Gillis said.
“I don’t think it was done specifically, but I think the new television deal may have seen some agents advise players to pause and just see what happens before they strike.
“The ratchet clause gives players comfort, but I’m sure players and agents would still prefer to know the number (salary cap) rather than rely on a percentage of something which we don’t know what will be.
“I think clubs and the NRL accept that because we don’t know what their cap’s going to be. The players are entitled to that clause and I think you’ll find that the vast majority, if not all, anticipate that clause to be included.”
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The inclusion of the PNG Chiefs from 2028 has got every other NRL club understandably concerned due to their advantage of being able to offer players tax-free contracts.
They’ve already signed a host of stars including Jarome Luai, Joey Manu, Brian To’o, Connor Watson and Zac Lomax.
There will be several NRL clubs who are going to lose a star player over the coming weeks.
And it’s not only due to tax-free money – the Chiefs have proven that they’re well run and know how to make a noise that benefits them.
“The Chiefs have clearly shown they’re going to be competitive and aggressive in the market,” Gillis said.
“They’re run professionally and know what they’re doing. They would have a hit list of players that after November 1 they’re allowed by the rules to engage with.
“There will be conversations between clubs and agents and players from that date.”
Riolo told Foxsports.com.au that this November 1 free agency period is different from previous ones because of the threat of the Chiefs who are locked and loaded when it comes to offers.
“They can put their tentacles out there a bit more and get more expressions of interest and actually start playing a little bit more aggressively,” he said.
“We’ve gone over our lists and our players. It’s an interesting project. It’s not like going to a normal club.
“For the clubs at the bottom of the league, like clubs who are looking for a marquee, well, November 1 is important because it means they can actually get that deal done.”
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Riolo also backed the opinion of Gillis regarding how well the Chiefs are being run when it comes to poaching players.
“The Papua New Guinea team, they seemed to be very organised and very clinical in their approach to recruitment,” he said.
“They’ve basically had all their ducks in a row and when they’ve got people over there, they’ve fired the shots and they’ve pretty much got them.”
Gillis said on his podcast, Chiming In, a few months ago that players he manages have been asking him about the Chiefs.
And he went one further last week when he told Foxsports.com.au: “I’ve had NSW Cup players ask me if the Chiefs are interested.”
“There are players that will have a bit of a chuckle and say, ‘make sure you get me to the Chiefs, I want a piece of the tax-free money’,” he added.
“But it only becomes real if the Chiefs have a genuine interest.”
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LONG-TERM STRATEGIES
Clubs haven’t been able to talk to contracted players until Sunday, but it doesn’t mean there isn’t a lot going on, legally, in the background prior to November 1.
Riolo pointed out that players are signing with different clubs all the time, but why the November to December deals have more traction is because people are changing clubs when they’ve still got a year to run on their current contract.
“And that was obviously not always perceived well by fans and clubs,” Riolo said.
“In the modern game it’s changed a bit now. Players are doing it more often and it’s just a result of a professional game that’s not as tribally based.”
Every club would have a big whiteboard set up listing the players who are available to negotiate future contracts from November 1.
And the Chiefs would have more names than anyone on their list as they try and form an inaugural squad for the 2028 season.
They’ve signed some handy backs but no forwards of note and have only been able to talk to a small pool of players.
“The Chiefs have all the agents listed and they know exactly what they’re doing and they would have lists of players in order that they might target and after November 1 they’ll start to work through those lists,” Gillis said.
“The Chiefs want to secure and announce their signings and they’re allowed to do it under the rules, so they won’t be sitting on their hands, they’ll be very proactive.”
Player manager David Riolo is preparing to negotiate many contracts for his players this summer.Source: FOX SPORTS
Riolo said plenty of homework has gone into what will happen in the next couple of months.
“Don’t forget, players don’t have to sit around waiting for November 1 to have a look at what their options may or may not be,” he said.
“Players, if they’ve met with their agents, can say ‘hey what do you think my options will be?’ And it’s not hard to speculate.
“If you’re in specific positions you can go through the rosters, and we do. Our job is to know who’s coming off when.”
Riolo said if one of his players came to him asking where his next home could be, if his current club doesn’t want to extend his deal, it was easy enough to figure out possible targets.
“Fullbacks for instance, nearly every club has a marquee fullback, but some of them are at different ages and some of them are right in their sweet spots,” Riolo said.
“If you’re a young fullback at the Broncos, you’re probably going to look at what your options are because Reece Walsh is in the Australian team and he’s only in his mid-20s.
“James Tedesco gets better, he’s like a bottle of red wine, but he’s not getting younger, so there’s a whole host of considerations to look at.”
HOW QUICK CAN A DEAL BE MADE
In the old days of the June 30 window, when players could switch clubs before that date, there would often be deals announced literally on the morning of July 1.
Footy fans are no doubt eagerly waiting to see what happens in the player market post-November 1.
But they likely will have to wait a little longer.
“I’d be shocked if anyone announced on November 2 or 3 that they’ve signed at a club,” Gillis said.
“It would be a little bit of a questionable process.
“No-one sets their alarm clock for midnight on November 1. It’s not like duck season, here we go, it’s a process.
“But I do expect some cards to fall at some stage late in November and throughout December.”
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Riolo said while contract negotiations can go on for months, others can be settled “straight away”.
“A player might have already decided that he wants to leave and a good deal comes in, and it’s a gift horse,” he said.
Gillis tells a good story about how quickly a deal can be done.
When he managed State of Origin forward Beau Scott, he helped him move from St George Illawarra to Newcastle in the twinkling of an eye.
He met the late Peter Mulholland, the then Knights recruitment manager, in a Picton cafe in 2012 and negotiated Scott’s deal to move to Newcastle within minutes.
“Peter said, ‘What do you want? I said, ‘We want this’ and he said, ‘We can do that, you happy’? I said ‘Yeah’, he said ‘All right, I’ll get the contract done’ and that was the end of it,” Gillis said.
“So it can be very short. That was a rare occasion. That was his preferred destination.”
So expect the first deals to be announced fairly soon, especially for the likes of Sam Walker and Hudson Young who rival clubs have known for a fact that they’ll be available.
But how cocky should star players be when negotiating their next contracts?
THE DANGERS OF KNOCKING BACK A CONTRACT
The Roosters and the Raiders both pulled offers to Walker and Young respectively and while the Queensland halfback won’t lose money when he signs with another club, the same can’t be said for Young.
The Raiders offered him $1.1 million a season, but which rival club will now match that?
Walker has been criticised for not accepting the offer from the Roosters considering what that club can do for players post-career.
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And it’s the top players who should be worrying the most when it comes to saying no to what look like attractive contract offers.
“When you get into higher-end deals you’ve got to be careful if you knock them back because there might not be that many other offers,” Riolo said.
“It’s like when you’re selling a house, with those high-end houses, they don’t have 20 buyers, but when you sell a cheap house you’re in a Dutch auction.”
Riolo and his star client Matt Burton are set to discuss a range of possible contract offers.
The Bears are reportedly set to offer him a mammoth $5 million deal to come over and be their five-eighth.
It will be tough to knock back knowing it’s unlikely that there will be another offer that lucrative.
“I’ve got Matt Burton coming off. He’s a star player but I haven’t got 16 clubs wanting him. Some couldn’t afford him,” Riolo said.
“Matt Burton wouldn’t go to Newcastle, not because he doesn’t like Newcastle, but they’ve got money tied up in Sandon Smith, probably $500,000, they’ve got $1.3 million in Dylan Brown as a No. 6 and $1.5 million in Kalyn Ponga at fullback.
“Their next deal for Fletcher Sharpe’s going to be massive too. So they just couldn’t afford him (Burton).
“Even if they thought he was a great player, it’s like going ‘well I got a Porsche, I can’t buy a Ferrari’. It’s not like anyone can get him now (that it’s November 1).”
It’s why the likes of Burton, Cameron Munster, Sam Walker and Harry Grant need to be careful over the next couple of months when deciding what deal to accept.
Grant has surprised many by going on the open market after many felt he would play out his career in Melbourne along with Munster.
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Grant has been linked with Newcastle but Riolo explained why that would be near-impossible to happen based on their likely salary cap situation.
“I just can’t see how Harry can go to Newcastle. We don’t know their cap but I can speculate pretty well and I can’t see how Newcastle (can get him). Harry Grant is going to want over a million bucks comfortably,” Riolo said.
“He’s the best hooker in the game. He’s not with me but I just can’t see how they could afford Harry Grant.
“I think that’s more probably his agent using the media to put his price up for Melbourne.
“You go through the hookers in the comp, it’s not always that easy. You go to the Sharks and Blayke Brailey’s just made Origin and Australia and he’s only young and he’s the captain and he plays 80 (minutes) a week.
“Well, they’re not even going to buy Harry Grant because they’ve already got Blayke under contract for four years, even if they think Harry’s better.”
While clubs were not in the position to offer contracts to the likes of Walker, Grant, Burton and even Nathan Cleary, it doesn’t mean they weren’t working behind the scenes to see which players they can move on if a star is available.
“It’s based on finances, isn’t it?” Gillis said.
“You might see some clubs push to release some players for next season to free up some space, that could potentially happen.”
Riolo also highlighted the situation at the Dolphins with two star backline players in Jack Bostock and Herbie Farnworth on the open market.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow re-signed with the club on Monday, which adds extra pressure on the club to retain the other two.
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Bostock and Farnworth have been linked with the Dragons and Roosters respectively.
“The Dolphins have got such a stacked backline and there’s a lot of them off contract so that’s going to be interesting,” Riolo said.
“That could be pretty hot in November for the Dolphins.
“They’ve already lost Jake Averillo, they’ve already moved on Kodi Nikorima, they’ve bought the six (George Williams) from England, and they’ve lost Jamayne Isaako.
“So they’ve already lost three of their top eight backs and their two major ones (Farnworth and Bostock) are still off.
“You’ve got two world-class backs who all have gone up (in value) from their last deals. That’s going to be tough (to keep them all).
“And if they do keep them all, well, there’s a hole somewhere. What does that mean for (Tom) Flegler? What does that mean for the forward pack?”
POWER SHIFT CHANGING?
The Hudson Young and Sam Walker contract pulls have been arguably the biggest news in the game this year.
The Raiders and Roosters decided to take control of the respective situations and actually made things difficult for the pair, particularly Young whose career is in a little bit of limbo right now.
Riolo said while many of the elite still have plenty of power at the negotiating table, it’s more about who they’re holding talks with.
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To get him to the club, the Wests Tigers basically let Jarome Luai write his own contract which was for more money than he was worth and included get-out clauses after each season.
Can you imagine Roosters chairman Nick Politis agreeing to that?
“Trent Robinson, Wayne Bennett, Craig Bellamy and Ivan Cleary can do what they want,” Riolo said.
“It depends on the player. The elite players are always going to have the power. The elite like Kalyn Ponga and Nathan Cleary, they change comps.
“Players want to do what’s best for themselves and their families, but they also want to win comps.”
Gillis said the ideal situation for a player was for many clubs to be fighting over him.
“I think it just comes down to if the player has multiple clubs interested, then he has leverage. If the player doesn’t have options or isn’t a value-add to the club the club has leverage,” he said.
“I think it comes down to the talent and class of the individual which determines how much added power they may have individually.
“I think you’ve got to have lived it to understand what it’s about. You’ve got young people’s futures at stake, you’re responsible to get the best outcome and to get it right and make sure it’s done correctly. So it’s not something you take lightly.”
Phil Gould played down the Walker fiasco on social media, saying: “The game survived the Super League war. This too shall pass.”
Player manager Steve Gillis is preparing for a busy summer.Source: FOX SPORTS
‘I’M LEAVING IT WITH MY MANAGER’
It’s common to hear a player fend off contract questions by telling the media they are letting their manager deal with it, as if they almost don’t know what’s going on.
Former premiership winner Craig Gower told Foxsports.com.au players know everything that’s happening behind the scenes.
“They can say that they’re leaving it all with their managers, but they’re just throwing it off. They know everything he’s talking about,” Gower said.
“They’re just playing games.”
Riolo said the players simply want their manager to present options for them, knowing they trust them to do what’s best for them.
“They don’t want all the conjecture and the back and forth and all that,” he said.
“We have a relationship, but the dynamic is you put all the options there, you go through the pros and cons and then you make a call.
“Sometimes players don’t have a lot of options, sometimes they have heaps, so it’s just working through that about how that would work and help facilitate them making the decision that’s best for them.
“But at the end of the day the player has to make the decision because it’s their life.”
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Riolo and Burton will no doubt be having life-changing discussions right now.
Riolo said the NFL wasn’t an option at the moment after speculation about Burton’s future as a punter in American football.
The Bulldogs have told him they’ll only pay him ‘centre money’ to stay.
Even that makes player agents roll their eyes at times.
“What’s centre money? Everyone says this and that and all the experts who’ve never done a deal come up with these sayings,” Riolo said.
“Stephen Crichton is a centre and he’s still probably the highest-paid player at the Bulldogs.
“Bradman Best is a centre and he’s going to get huge money.”
Talking to fans on social media, Bulldogs general manager Phil Gould said Burton could still stay at the club.
“How often does a player go to November 1 and end up staying at the club?” a fan asked.
“Plenty of times. Matt Burton did it last time he was coming off contract actually. I never care about November 1st. It doesn’t spook me,” Gould replied.
“There is plenty of discussion and movement in the game at the moment around players like Jack Bostock, Bradman Best, Latrell Mitchell and Herbie Farnworth. Good time to ask the marketplace what he’s (Burton) worth.”
Riolo said he and Burton weren’t in a hurry to make a decision for 2028 and beyond.
Dozens of player managers involved in rugby league are having their busiest period to date.
Riolo hasn’t visited Port Moresby yet, but has had many conversations with people at the Chiefs.
“Everyone asks (about the Chiefs) due to the point of difference with the tax-free stuff,” Riolo said.
“You also have to remember when you come to the bottom of the roster the tax-free is not going to be as appealing because we’re on a sliding scale in our tax threshold in Australia.
“There’ll be some things in the pipeline, I’m sure, and it’ll be interesting to see what some of the bigger names do. It’s not really November 1, it’s really the month of November.”
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Rugby league fans will be checking social media and news websites every day for the next few months to see where players are signing.
And the battle between clubs to secure a signature is at its most competitive since the Super League days of the mid-1990s.
“Players are excited by opportunities and motivated by being financially rewarded, so there’s definitely an interest there,” Gillis said.
“The Chiefs are producing a lot of headlines, but other clubs surprise fans too.
“There’s some high-profile players for sale, so there’s going to be plenty of media attention. There’s some big stories to come.”