But the turnaround didn’t start in Atlanta. Mahle had a 6.04 ERA through his first 11 starts in 2026 before a left hamstring strain sent him to the IL in late May.
When he came back on June 24, he was already leaning on the splitter and cutting back the cutter, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman noted. He posted a 3.79 ERA and a 3.62 FIP over his last seven starts in San Francisco. Throw out those first 11 starts, and Mahle has a 2.46 ERA over 179 regular season innings across the last two years.
StretchGSIPERAFIP’25 Rangers1686.22.183.37’26 Giants (before IL)1156.26.044.88’26 Giants (after IL)738.03.793.62’26 Braves954.11.993.32’26 Braves (playoffs)213.11.352.05
Why isn’t this guy talked about as one of the top-tier pitching free agents along with Tarik Skubal, Michael King, and Freddy Peralta?
Mahle had Tommy John surgery in 2023, hit the IL with shoulder tightness two weeks after returning in August of 2024, and lost three months of a terrific 2025 to a rotator cuff strain. He only made 24 starts and 125 innings between 2023 and 2025, his pitch traits don’t jump off the page, and he only threw 54.1 innings for Atlanta.
Still, Mahle threw 149 innings in 2026, his most since 2021, and the injury he suffered was to his leg, not his arm. What you’re buying is a 32-year-old with a clear path to success: four-seamers at the top of the zone and well-located splitters off them. When he’s healthy, that’s a mid-rotation starter on a really good team. Teams just have to price in the “when.”
Free Agent Profile: Tyler Mahle
Age in 2027: 32
2026 Stats: 27 GS, 149 IP, 7-10, 3.99 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 137 K
2026 Salary: $10 million (one-year deal)
Qualifying Offer Received?: No
Contract Projection
Projected Length: 1-3 years
Projected AAV: $10-$18 million
So, which teams could use a starter who might already be pitching like a front-line arm, without paying front-line money? Let’s take a look at some possibilities.
Free Agent Landing Spots for Tyler Mahle
Atlanta Braves
The obvious team and place to start is the team that transformed Mahle over the second half of last season. At his end-of-season press conference, Alex Anthopoulos said the Braves might try to extend Mahle before he reached the open market, per Bowman. Atlanta attempted the same thing last winter with Raisel Iglesias.
The Braves have a real need at starting pitcher. Behind Chris Sale and Mahle, the Braves leaned on bullpen games throughout the NLDS last year. Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach could return in 2027, but neither can be counted on for a full healthy workload, and with the signing of Evan Phillips, Didier Fuentes will most likely enter the rotation.