SEC Best Future Bets Full breakdown of all 16 SEC teams
Inside the Lines team
Best Win Totals

Ole Miss O 8.5 Wins (-118, FanDuel)

We love Ole Miss’ schedule layout which we think should get them to at least 9 wins. We are buying into Austin Simmons’ limited action last year in which he completed 60% of his passes. It’s important to note that Simmons reclassified and should only be a true Freshman this season, so getting experience, albeit limited, last season is important. While Ole Miss won’t be as talented as last year’s team, they might not need to be as talented in order to go further this season. Ole Miss gets LSU, Florida, and South Carolina at home. If they can win 2 out of 3 of those games, they should have no problem going over this total. 

Tennessee U 8.5 Wins (-135, Caesars)

Tennessee had an eventful offseason with Nico Iamaleava transferring to UCLA. While Tennessee has an incredibly easy non-conference schedule which is why their line is at 8.5, going 9-3 with a brand new starter that needs to learn a new system will not be an easy task. We would set the line right where it’s at, but this is a fade on a team that returns just 39% of its offensive production and lost it’s QB. 

Missouri O 6.5 Wins (-170, FanDuel)

Mizzou is at 7.5 juiced towards the under, but we’ll play it say and play the juice at 6.5 wins. We have value either way but this offers extra insurance, and we would probably wager more here to offset it. Missouri is coming off back-to-back 10-win seasons. The Tigers could be even better this season with Penn State Beau Pribula at QB. Brady Cook was not at his best last year after dealing with injuries, and Missouri was still able to get to 10 wins. Pribula is a bit of an unknown but from the glimpses we saw at Penn State, he looks like an upgrade over a banged up Cook. The Tigers did a good job of piecing together their needs through the transfer portal without doing a major rehaul. Missouri plays Alabama but avoids Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, and Georgia. They get Alabama as well as South Carolian and Texas A&M at home. With how the schedule plays out, it would be a big surprise if this team doesn’t win at least 7 games.

Oklahoma O 6.5 Wins (-180, DraftKings)

We are buying into John Mateer turning the ship around for the Brent Venables led Oklahoma Sooner. Bringing in the offensive coordinator and QB package has worked before. Washington State brought in Cam Ward and his OC Eric Morris, Western Kentucky brought in Bailey Zappe and his OC Zach Kittley, and now Oklahoma brought in Mateer and his OC Ben Arbuckle, who interestingly enough was on both the WKU staff when Zappe was QB and the WSU staff with Cam Ward. Oklahoma has a tough SEC schedule, but they have 3 wins in their first 5 games pretty much penciled in (Illinois State, Kent State, and Temple). The big swing game is against Auburn, who we are not too high on. Auburn has Oklahoma QB transfer, Jackson Arnold, as their starter, and he was not able to sustain success during his time at OU. We also like their chances at home against Michigan, considering Michigan will likely be playing a true Freshman at an SEC school in his first road start. 

Auburn U 7.5 Wins (+140, Hard Rock)

The plus money sticks out here. Auburn has not had 7 wins in its last 5 seasons, and you can get plus money that they get less than 8. Auburn has a good amount of returning production on both sides of the football, but the Tigers are rolling the dice that Jackson Arnold is going to be a much more consistent QB than he was at Oklahoma. The WR room is loaded, but it doesn’t matter if your QB can’t consistently get you the ball. Auburn has two big tests in its first four games against Baylor and Oklahoma on the road. If they lose one of those games, there is a solid chance that the under hits. 

Best Bets to Make Playoffs

Ole Miss +194 to Make the Playoffs

Ole Miss’ odds to make the playoffs is almost right in line with their odds of winning 10+ games. We give them around a 40% chance of winning 10+ games, which in turn would put them in contention to get an auto-bid in the SEC Championship. Their total playoff% factoring their at-large and chances to win the conference is about 54% in our model. That’s excellent value at +194. Perhaps Austin Simmons is a bigger downgrade to Jaxson Dart than we think, but the schedule looks favorable and allows Simmons to get his feet wet against Kentucky and Arkansas compared to top-tier SEC teams. And if Ole Miss is undefeated at that point but not looking as strong as you thought, there could be an opportunity to get out at that point. 

Texas A&M +235 to Make the Playoffs

Texas A&M has a unique blend of both returning production and talent. The Aggies rank 7th in the country in returning production with 72% of their production from last season returning, and they rank 4th in Bud Elliott’s Blue Chip Ratio at 82%. It is important to note that this is Mike Elko’s second season at the helm and teams tend to make a big jump in year two of a coaches’ tenure. Marcel Reed struggled with consistency last season, but he was a Freshman going through growing pains. Watch out for TAMU as a sleeper. 

THE REST:

HOT SEATS:

Florida has a wide outcome of variations this season all hinging on the growth and health of DJ Lagway. We would lean under 7.5 wins which would likely lead to Billy Napier getting fired.

Arkansas is finishing 5-7 in our simulations which would lead to Sam Pittman getting fired after he barely held on to his job after last season. Taylen Green could change that if he puts everything together this season. There are not many QBs built with his size and athleticism, but he needs to show more polish passing the ball which he has struggled with since his time at Boise State. We’d stay off Arkansas’ line. 

ARCH MANIA

Texas’ odds to win the conference are incredibly high, which makes sense because sportsbooks know they’ll still get action with the name brand. Still, we have fair value on Texas and wouldn’t bet against them.

LSU, Alabama, Georgia

We have all three of these teams as top-10 teams in our Power Rankings despite leaning under on their win totals and odds to make the playoffs. With the SEC cannibalizing itself last year, there could be value on betting all three not to make the playoffs. Georgia and Alabama will have new QBs, while Brian Kelly hasn’t been able to get over the hump at LSU.Â