F1 thriller\u2019s five biggest moments and what they tell us about dream scenario<\/a><\/p>\nThere\u2019ll be precious little time for rest. The second stanza of the campaign opens with four rounds in five weekends, and there are just 15 weekends between now and the final in Abu Dhabi.<\/p>\n
With the chequered flag just about within sight, the path to Yas Marina lies clear before the title protagonists.<\/p>\n
DUTCH GRAND PRIX<\/p>\n
Last year\u2019s results<\/p>\n
Qualifying: Norris 1st, Piastri 3rd (Norris 0.499 seconds faster)<\/p>\n
Race: Norris 1st, Piastri 4th (points: 25-12)<\/p>\n
The second part of the season starts on a circuit Norris dominated last year.<\/p>\n
The Briton took pole by a comfortable margin over home favourite Max Verstappen, and though the Dutchman got the better launch to take a popular lead, Norris made easy work of him on lap 18 on his way to a comfortable 22-second victory.<\/p>\n
Piastri lost touch with the lead battle after dropping a place off the line and losing another through strategy. He recovered to fourth at the end of one of several 2024 races in which his qualifying inconsistency put him on the back foot.<\/p>\n
But Norris\u2019s advantage was about more than Piastri\u2019s fumble. Generally better at these sorts of medium-speed circuits, he\u2019ll start this weekend\u2019s race as favourite to take another bit out of his teammate\u2019s title lead.<\/p>\n
Advantage: Lando Norris.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Clive Rose\/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
ITALIAN GRAND PRIX<\/p>\n
Last year\u2019s results<\/p>\n
Qualifying: Norris 1st, Piastri 2nd (Norris 0.109 seconds faster)<\/p>\n
Race: Piastri 2nd, Norris 3rd (points: 18-15)<\/p>\n
A close qualifying battle resolved in Norris\u2019s favour, but a stunning first-lap pass put Piastri into the lead, his bold around-the-outside move catching his teammate off guard.<\/p>\n
Norris would fight back through the race, but the Australian was steadfast to hold position \u2014 though a perfectly executed surprise one-stop strategy from Charles Leclerc meant the Ferrari driver beat both to victory.<\/p>\n
While McLaren\u2019s advantage has been almost totally unimpeachable at a range of circuits this season, Monza\u2019s long straights and slow chicanes could make this a danger race, with the team having stumbled over the similar demands of Canada\u2019s layout, where Mercedes was the team to beat.<\/p>\n
Monza will be much warmer than Montreal was, however, and the MCL39 excels when managing tyre temperatures is decisive.<\/p>\n
Advantage: Oscar Piastri.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Dimitar DILKOFF \/ AFP)Source: AFP<\/p>\n
AZERBAIJAN GRAND PRIX<\/p>\n
Last year\u2019s results<\/p>\n
Qualifying: Piastri 2nd, Norris 16th (Piastri 0.576 seconds faster)<\/p>\n
Race: Piastri 1st, Norris 4th (points: 25-12)<\/p>\n
Beaten to pole by Baku expert Leclerc, Piastri needed a centimetre-perfect dive-bomb on the Ferrari driver to take the lead and nerves of steel to hold it to the chequered flag.<\/p>\n
Flawlessly executed on both counts, Azerbaijan 2024 remains Piastri\u2019s most impressive victory.<\/p>\n
Norris\u2019s potential was never fully realised, with a combination of qualifying mistakes and bad luck eliminating him in 16th, though a mighty comeback to fourth \u2014 four places better than the team expected would be possible \u2014 suggested he should have been in the mix.<\/p>\n
But Piastri will get a mighty boost from last year\u2019s gutsy performance.<\/p>\n
That might be crucial given Leclerc is always a factor in Baku, even if on paper McLaren should be best placed to nail the set-up compromises required of this unique circuit.<\/p>\n
Advantage: Oscar Piastri.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Joe Portlock\/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
SINGAPORE GRAND PRIX<\/p>\n
Last year\u2019s results<\/p>\n
Qualifying: Norris 1st, Piastri 5th (Norris 0.115 seconds faster)<\/p>\n
Race: Norris 1st, Piastri 3rd (points: 25-15)<\/p>\n
Norris bounced back from his Baku disappointment with an emphatic demonstration of speed in Singapore, taking pole by a hefty 0.203 seconds over Verstappen and lapping almost half a second quicker than Piastri.<\/p>\n
He won the race by a comfortable 20 seconds, albeit with some alarming bumps with the barriers that could have ended the dream run in an instant.<\/p>\n
Again Piastri\u2019s wayward qualifying left him with too much work to do, even with impressive race pace that propelled him to third, albeit 40 seconds off his leading teammate.<\/p>\n
A street track in the warm climes of equatorial Singapore should play well to McLaren\u2019s strengths, and while Piastri\u2019s qualifying improvements this year clouds the form guide, Norris\u2019s 2024 perfection and slow-corner strengths mean Singapore sits in his column.<\/p>\n
Advantage: Lando Norris.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Mark Thompson\/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
UNITED STATES GRAND PRIX<\/p>\n
Last year\u2019s results<\/p>\n
Qualifying: Norris 1st, Piastri 5th (Norris 0.620 seconds faster)<\/p>\n
Sprint: Norris 3rd, Piastri 10th (points: 6-0)<\/p>\n
Race: Norris 4th, Piastri 5th (points: 12-10)<\/p>\n
Austin was a tricky weekend for McLaren, which never looked like the form team. Norris was gazumped by the Ferrari drivers and Verstappen \u2014 though he was controversially penalised for passing the Dutchman late in the race.<\/p>\n
But even then Piastri was never on his teammate\u2019s pace at a circuit with which he\u2019s never quite clicked. He was eliminated from SQ1 and couldn\u2019t score in the short race, while in the grand prix he finished fifth but without Norris\u2019s forward momentum.<\/p>\n
McLaren should have an easier time of things this year, especially if it\u2019s warm. History suggests Norris is better dialled into the Circuit of the Americas, which could be lucrative with sprint points up for grabs.<\/p>\n
That said, on paper this should be a close contest between the drivers, and if Piastri can win in Austin, it could be a bellwether result for the championship with five rounds to go.<\/p>\n
Advantage: Lando Norris.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Clive Rose\/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
MEXICO CITY GRAND PRIX<\/p>\n
Last year\u2019s results<\/p>\n
Qualifying: Norris 3rd, Piastri 17th (Norris 1.092 seconds faster)<\/p>\n
Race: Norris 2nd, Piastri 8th (points: 18-4)<\/p>\n
Aut\u00f3dromo Hermanos Rodr\u00edguez\u2019s situation 2.2 kilometres above sea level makes it a performance outlier, but there was no doubt that Norris has enjoyed a firm upper hand on Piastri in the thin air.<\/p>\n
Last year his race was defined by a controversial battle with Verstappen for which the Dutchman was heavily penalised, after which only a perfect race from Carlos Sainz prevented him from winning.<\/p>\n
Piastri, meanwhile, was knocked out in 17th after strategic and driver qualifying errors. He was surgical in recovery but managed only eighth.<\/p>\n
Telling is that Norris committed the same qualifying mistake in 2023 but still managed to finish ahead of Piastri, who started 10 places up the grid, albeit in the Australian\u2019s rookie year.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s hard to be certain McLaren will be more competitive this season, but Piastri is yet to show he really gels with this peculiar track, which keeps it in Norris\u2019s column.<\/p>\n
Advantage: Lando Norris.<\/p>\n
(Photo by CHARLY TRIBALLEAU \/ AFP)Source: AFP<\/p>\n
SAO PAULO GRAND PRIX<\/p>\n
Last year\u2019s results<\/p>\n
Qualifying: Norris 1st, Piastri 8th (Norris 1.281 seconds faster)<\/p>\n
Sprint: Norris 1st, Piastri 2nd (points: 8-7)<\/p>\n
Race: Norris 6th, Piastri 8th (points: 8-4)<\/p>\n
Despite Norris appearing to come out on top on paper, there was more to last year\u2019s wildly unpredictable Sao Paulo weekend.<\/p>\n
Piastri took sprint pole in the dry and controlled the short race until team orders required him to hand victory to Norris to boost the Briton\u2019s flagging title hopes.<\/p>\n
Norris then bossed grand prix qualifying in soaking wet conditions, though two red-flag interruptions meant Piastri\u2019s deficit wasn\u2019t representative.<\/p>\n
The Australian\u2019s race performance was more impressive. While Norris was caught out by a red flag, he then slipped down the order until he was behind Piastri, at which point team orders reversed their positions again, fixing the Briton ahead.<\/p>\n
Piastri could be expected to have an upper hand on a cleaner weekend \u2014 though Brazil has a habit of generating surprises and could be a danger round for a third-party winner.<\/p>\n
Advantage: Oscar Piastri.<\/p>\n
Source: AFP<\/p>\n
LAS VEGAS GRAND PRIX<\/p>\n
Last year\u2019s results<\/p>\n
Qualifying: Norris 6th, Piastri 8th (Norris 0.016 seconds faster)<\/p>\n
Race: Norris 6th, Piastri 7th (points: 8-6)<\/p>\n
It\u2019s been on the calendar for only two seasons, but Las Vegas is one of McLaren\u2019s biggest bogey venues.<\/p>\n
The team\u2019s 2023 resurgence hit a brick wall down the Strip when both drivers were eliminated in Q1. That said, Piastri was rapid in recovery and would have finished much higher than 10th had he not picked up a puncture in a scuffle with Hamilton.<\/p>\n
Things were better in 2024, but even then McLaren was outpaced by Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull Racing and even Alpine. Norris qualified ahead of Piastri, and in a lonely low-stakes race the two teammates finished in the same order.<\/p>\n
Without a definitive result, Piastri\u2019s impressive 2023 performance puts this track marginally in his column, though it\u2019s a very close call.<\/p>\n
But the chilly evening temperatures don\u2019t suit the McLaren and could bring Mercedes to the fore again this year, making this a potential curveball in the straight title fight.<\/p>\n
Advantage: Oscar Piastri.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Mark Sutton – Formula 1\/Formula 1 via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
QATAR GRAND PRIX<\/p>\n
Last year\u2019s results<\/p>\n
Qualifying: Norris 3rd, Piastri 4th (Norris 0.057 seconds faster)<\/p>\n
Sprint: Piastri 1st, Norris 2nd (points: 8-7)<\/p>\n
Race: Piastri 3rd, Norris 10th (points: 15-1)<\/p>\n
Norris had a slender advantage last year, with his better qualifying record proving decisive \u2014 though the Briton handed sprint victory to his teammate as payback for Sao Paulo to open the weekend.<\/p>\n
Better qualifying for the grand prix should have seen him finish at least second behind Verstappen, but a hefty penalty for ignoring yellow flags dropped him to an eventual 10th.<\/p>\n
Piastri\u2019s race was impacted by another so-so 2024 qualifying performance and then a poor start and then bad luck with the safety car, but he had better pace than his third place suggested.<\/p>\n
Given his improvements in execution this year, his strong 2023 performance in Lusail and his advantage through high-speed corners this year, he can still count this circuit in his column \u2014 though it\u2019s close.<\/p>\n
Red Bull Racing, also very strong in high-speed corners, is also likely to play a high-profile role in the penultimate round of the season, making Max Versatppen a potential wildcard.<\/p>\n
Advantage: Oscar Piastri.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Mark Thompson\/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
ABU DHABI GRAND PRIX<\/p>\n
Last year\u2019s results<\/p>\n
Qualifying: Norris 1st, Piastri 2nd (Norris 0.209 seconds faster)<\/p>\n
Race: Norris 1st, Piastri 10th (points: 25-1)<\/p>\n
If the title goes down to the wire, Norris could count on ending the year with the wind in his sails.<\/p>\n
The Briton has had a decisive lead in Yas Marina over the last two years, even if a qualifying mistake in 2023 meant he started the race behind Piastri. He got ahead comfortably in that race, and on their return visit last year he was comfortably faster on his way to pole position.<\/p>\n
That said, it\u2019s unclear whether Piastri had the race pace to match his teammate given the Australian was tipped into a first-lap spin by an errant Verstappen, forcing him into a long fightback to 10th.<\/p>\n
But there\u2019s no denying Norris had things his own way in Abu Dhabi last weekend \u2014 a potentially powerful positive memory should it all come down to the final race this season.<\/p>\n
Advantage: Lando Norris.<\/p>\n
(Photo by Gabriel BOUYS \/ AFP)Source: AFP<\/p>\n
BUT IS 2024 A RELIABLE INDICATOR?<\/p>\n
Last year\u2019s summary<\/p>\n
Qualifying: Norris ahead 9-1 (average advantage: 0.342 seconds*)<\/p>\n
Race: Norris ahead 7-3 (all points: 175-125)<\/p>\n
Forecast advantage: Norris 5-5<\/p>\n
*Excluding outliers: 0.232 seconds<\/p>\n
With Norris having beaten Piastri across qualifying and race sessions last year, it might be surprising to see they\u2019re forecast to share the spoils over the last 10 rounds.<\/p>\n
Of course with so little between them, that head-to-head figure could easily blow out in one direction or another.<\/p>\n
But the reason Piastri is given better odds than his record suggests he merits is because of his steep trajectory of improvement.<\/p>\n
The Piastri contending for the 2025 title isn\u2019t the same one who competed for his first win last year or the one who debuted in Formula 1 the year before that.<\/p>\n
Norris has also taken steps forward, but nowhere near as many.<\/p>\n
Consider the following admittedly crude metric.<\/p>\n
Last year Norris outqualified Piastri by an average of 0.169 seconds \u2014 excluding outlying results \u2014 over 24 grands prix.<\/p>\n
So far this year Piastri has reversed that to lead by 0.045 seconds.<\/p>\n
That equated to a one-lap improvement of 0.214 seconds in Piastri\u2019s favour.<\/p>\n
If you were to bake that into the 2024 qualifying times, the 2024 head-to-head record would read 6-4 in Piastri\u2019s favour over the last 10 rounds.<\/p>\n
Considering Piastri\u2019s race record was better than his qualifying record last year, there\u2019s plenty of reason to think he\u2019s at least an even chance of retaining his lead to Abu Dhabi even if the bulk of the next 10 races are at circuits at which he was relatively weak in 2024.<\/p>\n
The more interesting test, therefore, might not be to consider which tracks might be favourable for Piastri but rather which Norris strongholds the Briton can defend.<\/p>\n
This weekend\u2019s Circuit Zandvoort was one of Norris\u2019s best tracks last year.<\/p>\n
If he can win with similar ease again this weekend, his path to victory will be clear.<\/p>\n
But if Piastri can beat him to the winner\u2019s trophy on Sunday, that path would become considerably narrower.<\/p>\n
There are 10 rounds remaining and nine points in it, but there can be only one winner.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"There are 10 rounds and just nine points in it. That\u2019s the equation for Oscar Piastri as he…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":100640,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[573],"tags":[944,2620,2095,1724,64,14017,63,689,18503,73233,73237,73222,73232,24562,2065,4971,2791,13275,49522,73241,73220,73215,18241,73219,73205,2055,73228,73226,73214,73206,73231,9239,73218,817,73246,73238,16236,73227,73235,73204,813,816,73230,73236,2105,841,73243,18901,14211,73212,73203,73225,10897,73224,73213,73223,941,34866,1737,2623,73247,43331,2082,825,2184,23956,2627,2041,2067,677,73248,73211,73239,73244,73209,73210,13777,21749,73240,73208,25598,41564,2072,73234,73229,85,18905,22784,73242,73221,73216,73217,3370,21784,73207,2614,73245,36844,12000,2753],"class_list":["post-100639","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-formula-1","tag-abu-dhabi","tag-agence-france-presse","tag-america","tag-asia","tag-au","tag-austin","tag-australia","tag-australia-and-new-zealand","tag-australian-driver","tag-bellwether-result","tag-bogey-venues","tag-bold-around-the-outside-move","tag-bottas-perez","tag-british-driver","tag-canada","tag-carlos-sainz","tag-central-america","tag-charles-leclerc","tag-chequered-flag","tag-chilly-evening-temperatures","tag-city-grand","tag-cleaner-weekend","tag-clive-rose","tag-close-qualifying-battle","tag-comfortable-margin","tag-constructors-championship","tag-crude-metric","tag-danger-race","tag-definitive-result","tag-dream-run","tag-dutch-grand","tag-eastern-asia","tag-emphatic-demonstration","tag-f1","tag-familiar-european-territories","tag-final-double-header","tag-final-race","tag-first-lap-spin","tag-flagging-title-hopes","tag-forecast-advantage","tag-formula-1","tag-formula1","tag-gabriel-bouys","tag-generating-surprises","tag-getty-images-inc","tag-grand-prix","tag-grand-prix-circuit","tag-grand-prix-qualifying","tag-grands-prix","tag-half-century-drought","tag-handed-sprint-victory","tag-high-speed-corners","tag-home-favourite","tag-impressive-race-pace","tag-interesting-test","tag-italian-grand","tag-japan","tag-joe-portlock","tag-lando-norris","tag-las-vegas","tag-managing-tyre-temperatures","tag-mark-sutton","tag-mark-thompson","tag-max-verstappen","tag-mexico","tag-mexico-city","tag-nevada","tag-north-america","tag-northern-america","tag-oceania","tag-one-lap-improvement","tag-peculiar-track","tag-penultimate-round","tag-performance-outlier","tag-point-team-orders","tag-positive-memory","tag-qualifying-session","tag-race-pace","tag-race-performance","tag-race-record","tag-safety-car","tag-season-starts","tag-sergio-perez","tag-set-up-compromises","tag-slow-corner-strengths","tag-sports","tag-sprint-points","tag-sprint-pole","tag-states-grand","tag-straight-title-fight","tag-surprise-one-stop-strategy","tag-suzuka","tag-texas","tag-title-lead","tag-title-protagonists","tag-united-states-of-america","tag-upper-hand","tag-veteran-duo","tag-western-asia","tag-world-champion"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100639","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=100639"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100639\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/100640"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=100639"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=100639"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=100639"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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