It is shaping up to be a soggy spring for large parts of the country.<\/p>\n
The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) official long-range outlook for the season, released on Thursday, shows wetter-than-average conditions are favoured for much of the country’s east.\u00a0<\/p>\n
This is particularly likely for the earlier part of the season, according to BOM senior climatologist Simon Grainger.<\/p>\n
“The strongest chances of above average rainfall are in September and October,” Dr Grainger said.\u00a0<\/p>\n
“For November, there are still chances of above-average rainfall, but it’s more around a 60-65 per cent chance.”<\/p>\n
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Most of Australia is likely to record above-average rainfall from September to November. (BOM)<\/p>\n
Western Australia is the only state to not have shades of blue across the outlook.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Instead, the outlook is showing no clear sign either way following an incredibly wet winter for Perth and the west coast.<\/p>\n
While “wetter than average” can mean something as small as just a couple of millimetres above what is normal, there are signs this spring could be particularly wet in parts of Queensland and New South Wales.<\/p>\n
Those states have double to triple the chance of an “unusually” wet spring \u2014 particularly during October \u2014 meaning rainfall in the top 20 per cent of all years.<\/p>\n
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There is a chance for rainfall to be in the highest 20 per cent of the historical range for September to November. (BOM)<\/p>\n
The outlook comes as south-eastern Australia braces for a stormy end to winter, with a strong cold front barrelling toward the Great Australian Bite set to bring cold, wet and windy weather to the region as well as snow to low levels over the next few days.<\/p>\n
Several severe weather warnings have already been issued for South Australia, Victoria and New South Wales for damaging to locally destructive winds and blizzards across alpine areas.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, spring temperatures are favoured to be warmer than normal for large parts of Australia, particularly at night.\u00a0<\/p>\n
This is likely to be related, in part, to the outlook for wetter weather, with cloud cover acting to trap the heat in.<\/p>\n
Spring daytime temperatures are also predicted to be warmer than normal for northern Australia, as well as Victoria and Tasmania.\u00a0<\/p>\n
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There is an increased chance of unusually warm days in the far north and south-east. (BOM)<\/p>\n
But for the rest of the country, the temperature outlook is closer to average, with pockets of cooler-than-normal weather during the day predicted for New South Wales and Queensland.<\/p>\n
“So what we’re seeing is the increased cloudiness in those areas increases the chance of rain, but also at the same time [we are] more likely to have cooler-than-usual daytime temperatures,” he said.<\/p>\n
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Dark clouds roll over Boronia, Victoria, days before winter’s end (Facebook: Weather Obsessed\/Andrew Aubert)<\/p>\n
Dr Grainger said it was important to remember the outlook was generalised across the season and did not capture individual weather events, which might see days or weeks of varying conditions.<\/p>\n
This is particularly true in spring, which is known to have more volatile weather.<\/p>\n
“It’s definitely a peak time for storms, particularly severe storms along the east coast of Australia,” he said.<\/p>\n
“So we can definitely see a bit more of those volatile situations that are not that are not captured in the long-range forecast.”<\/p>\n
Desperate need for more rain<\/p>\n
A continuation of rainfall into spring is something south-eastern parts of the country need, with the landscape struggling to recover from back-to-back dry years.<\/p>\n
Drought behind a green veneer<\/a><\/p>\n Rain has returned to farming regions in South Australia. But the drought is not over \u00a0\u2014 it just looks like it..<\/p>\n Though recent rainfall has helped ease the situation for some, the longer-term rainfall deficiencies across southern SA, Victoria and Tasmania remain largely unchanged.<\/p>\n