{"id":103670,"date":"2025-08-29T05:41:12","date_gmt":"2025-08-29T05:41:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/103670\/"},"modified":"2025-08-29T05:41:12","modified_gmt":"2025-08-29T05:41:12","slug":"getting-rid-of-fossil-fuels-is-really-hard-and-were-not-making-much-progress","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/103670\/","title":{"rendered":"Getting rid of fossil fuels is really hard \u2013 and we\u2019re not making much progress"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>If miners, the media, policymakers and renewable energy companies are to be believed, Australia is in the midst of a green energy transition aimed at preventing the worst effects of climate change. <\/p>\n<p>This appealing narrative suggests we are progressively reducing greenhouse emissions by replacing fossil fuels with clean alternatives such as wind and solar power, batteries and electric vehicles. <\/p>\n<p>But there\u2019s a real problem in accepting this idea without question. To date, the green energy transition has largely added more energy to the mix, rather than <a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/grapher\/global-primary-energy\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">actually replacing fossil fuels<\/a>. In other words, our decarbonisation is yet to begin in earnest.<\/p>\n<p>For countries with a laser focus on economic growth such as Australia, this means shifting away from fossil fuels is particularly challenging. Growth and fossil fuel use have long been linked. <\/p>\n<p>As one of the world\u2019s top three liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, Australia exports <a href=\"https:\/\/climateanalytics.org\/comment\/dug-up-in-australia-burned-around-the-world-exporting-fossil-fuels-undermines-climate-targets\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">much of the problem<\/a>. Tackling climate change would mean picking a fight with powerful industries that have dominated Australia\u2019s economy and politics for decades.<\/p>\n<p>Confronting the true scale of the decarbonisation challenge is daunting. We need to challenge fossil fuel interests in politics and consider whether continual economic growth can ever be compatible with climate stability.<\/p>\n<p>            <a href=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/687623\/original\/file-20250827-56-9uvmuu.jpg?ixlib=rb-4.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"row of houses seen from above with solar panels on their rooftops.\" class=\"lazyload\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/file-20250827-56-9uvmuu.jpg\"  \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>              Solar panels on rooftops and more electric cars on the road can hide the true size of the challenge.<br \/>\n              <a class=\"source\" href=\"https:\/\/photos.aap.com.au\/search\/20250708114876995027\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Darren England\/AAP<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Is the transition a mirage?<\/p>\n<p>For at least two decades in Australia, much effort has gone towards making the green energy transition a reality. Solar panels are now on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.energy.gov.au\/news\/australia-hits-rooftop-solar-milestone\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">a third of Australian houses<\/a>, while wind farms and large-scale solar funnel ever more energy into power grids, reaching <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/2025\/may\/07\/more-than-40-of-electricity-used-in-australias-main-power-grid-at-start-of-year-was-renewable\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">new heights of 43%<\/a> in the main grid this year. Electric vehicles are becoming more common on Australian roads, and the production of green steel is nascent but promising.  <\/p>\n<p>Australia\u2019s direct emissions are slowly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dcceew.gov.au\/sites\/default\/files\/documents\/nggi-quarterly-update-december-2024.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">beginning to fall<\/a>, due mainly to changes in land uses and, more recently, to renewables replacing coal plants. The latest figures show a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dcceew.gov.au\/sites\/default\/files\/documents\/quarterly-update-australia-national-greenhouse-gas-inventory-march-2025.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">1.4% drop<\/a> over the past year. But if the emissions of Australian gas and coal <a href=\"https:\/\/ca1clm.edcdn.com\/publications\/Aust_fossilcarbon_footprint.pdf?v=1723409920\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">burned overseas<\/a> are considered, Australia\u2019s emissions would still be rising. <\/p>\n<p>Positive trends <a href=\"https:\/\/climatepromise.undp.org\/news-and-stories\/what-sustainable-energy-transition-and-why-it-key-tackling-climate-change\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">foster assumptions<\/a> that less and less fossil fuels will need to be burned.   <\/p>\n<p>This, however, isn\u2019t guaranteed. Energy historians <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thegreatsimplification.com\/episode\/162-jean-baptiste-fressoz\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">have pointed out<\/a> new forms of energy don\u2019t necessarily replace the older ones. Instead, they are getting <a href=\"https:\/\/shs.cairn.info\/journal-books-and-ideas-2025-1-page-XIV?lang=en\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">added to the mix<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>The world economy now uses more <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thegreatsimplification.com\/episode\/162-jean-baptiste-fressoz\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">wood, coal, oil and gas than ever before<\/a>. As a result, greenhouse gas emissions are <a href=\"https:\/\/wmo.int\/media\/news\/record-carbon-emissions-highlight-urgency-of-global-greenhouse-gas-watch\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">still rising<\/a> as fossil fuels continue to be used alongside renewables. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>Hungry for energy<\/p>\n<p>Energy use, carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth have long gone hand in hand. While some richer countries are <a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/co2-gdp-decoupling\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">managing to decouple<\/a> economic growth from carbon emissions, these countries often effectively export emissions to poorer nations. It\u2019s proving far harder to make <a href=\"https:\/\/www.friendsofeurope.org\/insights\/decoupling-economic-and-energy-growth-in-the-eu-a-red-herring\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">absolute emissions cuts<\/a> while still growing the economy.<\/p>\n<p>In economics, it\u2019s long been believed that energy consumption <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0954349X13000593\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">is determined<\/a> by how fast an economy is growing. <\/p>\n<p>Energy economists have since learned the opposite may be true: that only when energy is available, economic growth <a href=\"https:\/\/www.elgaronline.com\/monobook\/9781848441828.xml\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">follows<\/a>. When new energy sources emerge, they will be used to build more, drive technological change and other economic activities. <\/p>\n<p>While <a href=\"https:\/\/wecoop.eu\/glossary\/green-deal\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">green growth advocates<\/a> hope new technology will make it possible to keep expanding the economy at minimal environmental cost, these hopes are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.friendsofeurope.org\/insights\/decoupling-economic-and-energy-growth-in-the-eu-a-red-herring\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">misplaced<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>In theory, renewable energy resources are near-infinite. If the world ran on 100% renewables, continual economic growth might be possible. But adding renewable energy to the mix while we exploit all available carbon-based energy won\u2019t be enough to <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/beyond-net-zero-we-should-if-we-can-cool-the-planet-back-to-pre-industrial-levels-187781\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">stop climate change<\/a> or save species <a href=\"https:\/\/lens.monash.edu\/@environment\/2024\/09\/24\/1387030\/a-nature-positive-australia-what-does-it-mean-why-does-it-matter-and-what-will-it-take\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">from extinction<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>The way we think about the economy has to change from a focus on infinite growth to a restorative approach. <\/p>\n<p>Fossil fuels won\u2019t go without a fight<\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s recent success in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2025-07-27\/chinas-co2-emissions-may-have-peaked-thanks-to-renewable-energy\/105549598\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">stabilising emissions<\/a> through very rapid renewable energy deployment suggests low-carbon development is <a href=\"https:\/\/about.bnef.com\/insights\/clean-energy\/liebreich-the-pragmatic-climate-reset-part-i\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">still possible<\/a>. But even this historic effort <a href=\"https:\/\/climateactiontracker.org\/countries\/china\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">may not be enough<\/a> to make the rapid, deep emission cuts needed to stave off the worst of climate change. China\u2019s decades-long focus on economic growth has come at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.frontiersin.org\/journals\/environmental-science\/articles\/10.3389\/fenvs.2022.999145\/full\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">huge cost<\/a> to its environment more broadly.  <\/p>\n<p>China\u2019s massive renewables expansion was possible only because its government has actively pursued decarbonisation as a national priority, alongside building clean energy industries. <\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s a different story in Australia. While the nation has taken up solar at world-beating speed, successive governments have also worked to <a href=\"https:\/\/ieefa.org\/australian-gas-and-lng-tracker\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">rapidly expand<\/a> the LNG industry and keep coal alive. <\/p>\n<p>From the Howard era onward, fossil fuel lobbyists have fought against the adoption of strong emissions targets, <a href=\"https:\/\/reneweconomy.com.au\/the-network-of-conservative-think-tanks-out-to-kill-the-switch-to-renewables\/\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">downplayed the urgency<\/a> of climate action, and worked to stop measures such as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.allenandunwin.com\/browse\/book\/Marian-Wilkinson-Carbon-Club-9781760875992\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">short-lived carbon price<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>It seems unthinkable for an Australian government to deny a fossil fuel producer anything. Federal approval for Woodside\u2019s giant North West Shelf project <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/green-light-for-gas-north-west-shelf-gas-plant-cleared-to-run-until-2070-257008\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">to continue<\/a> is only the latest example of a political system unable to make the changes necessary to meaningfully cut emissions. <\/p>\n<p>It doesn\u2019t have to be this way, of course. Australia is rich in sun, wind, metals and critical minerals. Prominent figures from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/commentisfree\/2025\/aug\/12\/australias-time-has-come-to-be-a-green-energy-intensive-export-superpower\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Rod Sims<\/a> to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.superpowerinstitute.com.au\/the-superpower-books\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Ross Garnaut<\/a> to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/australia-news\/2023\/jun\/17\/our-future-as-an-electrostate-alan-finkel-on-how-australia-gets-to-net-zero-from-here\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Alan Finkel<\/a> have laid out how Australia could create large new green industries as the sun sets on fossil fuels. Big Australian companies say rapid emission cuts <a href=\"https:\/\/www.businessfor75.com.au\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">would spur<\/a> huge new industries. But our attitude towards exploiting existing energy resources needs to change. <\/p>\n<p>Grasping the true difficulty of keeping Australia\u2019s fossil fuels safely in the ground is an essential first step before we can begin a more honest discussion about how to achieve a prosperous and safe future. Cutting emissions fast enough to avoid the very worst of climate change will require far greater ambition and far-reaching structural change to the economy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"If miners, the media, policymakers and renewable energy companies are to be believed, Australia is in the midst&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":103671,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[64,63,75,128],"class_list":["post-103670","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-environment","tag-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103670","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=103670"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103670\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/103671"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=103670"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=103670"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=103670"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}