![](\"https:\/\/secure.espncdn.com\/i\/espnicons\/SVG\/external.svg?w=10&h=10\")
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring<\/a>.<\/p>\nNote: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today’s MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news<\/a>.<\/p>\n Jump to: Pitching notes<\/a> | Hitting notes<\/a> | Betting tips<\/a> Pitchers to stream on Monday<\/p>\n Shane Baz<\/a>‘s last four outings before the All-Star break were all quality starts and he’s in a good position to keep it going when the Tampa Bay Rays<\/a> host the Chicago White Sox<\/a>. Baz opens his post-break schedule facing the lineup with the league’s lowest wOBA versus right-handers.<\/p>\n In his last three starts before the break, Eury Perez<\/a> compiled 18 innings, fanning 21 with just one walk. He yielded one earned run in that span, winning all three efforts. Next up is a home date with the San Diego Padres<\/a>. The visitors don’t strike out much, but they sport the fourth-lowest home run rate against righties and generate the eighth-poorest wOBA.<\/p>\n Jacob Lopez<\/a> has eight outings lasting at least four innings this season. He fanned at least eight batters in five of them. He’s in line for another big strikeout effort with the Athletics<\/a> visiting the Texas Rangers<\/a>. The Rangers sport the ninth-highest strikeout rate facing left-handed pitching, helping fuel the third-lowest wOBA against southpaws.<\/p>\n Pitchers to avoid on Monday<\/p>\n This is more of a heads up than a suggestion to avoid Shohei Ohtani<\/a>. Technically the starter for the Los Angeles Dodgers<\/a>‘ game Monday, Ohtani is more of an opener, as he’s ticketed for three innings before Dustin May<\/a> takes over. At some point, Ohtani will serve as a traditional starter, but not for this home affair with the Minnesota Twins<\/a>. In fact, May is a solid streamer since he doesn’t need to complete five frames to vulture a win.<\/p>\n Today’s best matchups for pitchers<\/p>\n Chicago Cubs<\/a> pitchers vs. Royals hitters Seattle Mariners<\/a> pitchers vs. Brewers hitters Texas Rangers<\/a> pitchers vs. Athletics hitters Today’s worst matchups for pitchers<\/p>\n St. Louis Cardinals<\/a> pitchers vs. Rockies hitters Colorado Rockies<\/a> pitchers vs. Cardinals hitters Minnesota Twins<\/a> pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters Hitters to stream on Monday<\/p>\n Since June 1, Randy Vasquez<\/a> has walked 19 hitters while punching out just 18 in 39 1\/3 innings. The Miami Marlins<\/a>‘ lefty swingers, most notable Kyle Stowers<\/a> and Jesus Sanchez<\/a>, are solid streaming targets against the Padres right-hander.<\/p>\n Bryce Elder<\/a> went into the break on a high note, striking out seven in 6 2\/3 frames and limiting the Athletics to only one run. However, over his four previous outings, he recorded a 12.64 ERA and 2.81 WHIP. The San Francisco Giants<\/a> visit the Atlanta Braves<\/a>, landing Mike Yastrzemski<\/a> as one of the slate’s top hitters to pick up.<\/p>\n Today’s best matchups for hitters<\/p>\n St. Louis Cardinals batters vs. Rockies pitchers Colorado Rockies batters vs. Cardinals pitchers Tampa Bay Rays<\/a> RHB vs. White Sox pitchers Today’s worst matchups for hitters<\/p>\n Milwaukee Brewers<\/a> RHB vs. Mariners pitchers Boston Red Sox<\/a> RHB vs. Phillies pitchers Detroit Tigers<\/a> RHB vs. Pirates pitchers Betting tips<\/p>\n Best\/worst pitcher\/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.<\/p>\n Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.<\/p>\n Today’s top HR prop bets<\/p>\n Matt Wallner<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+475) Freddie Freeman<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+700) Oneil Cruz<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+425) Today’s top pitcher prop bets<\/p>\n Tomoyuki Sugano<\/a> | OVER 3.5 K (+120) Eury Perez<\/a> | UNDER 4.5 K (+105)
Reliever depth chart<\/a> | Start a new league<\/a><\/p>\n
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: N\/A | Temperature: C- | Wind: A+ | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.75 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Offense: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: N\/A | Temperature: D+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.80 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: N\/A | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.92 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: N\/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: F | Away
The average pitcher would post a 6.08 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: N\/A | Temperature: D- | Wind: F | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.87 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: N\/A | Temperature: B- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.50 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: B | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: A | Away
The average hitter would post a .386 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: C | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Framing: D | Temperature: A | Wind: A | Home
The average hitter would post a .378 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: B | Bullpen: A | Park: C | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .349 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .266 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: F | Bullpen: F | Park: C | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .269 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: B | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .278 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.60 EV
One reason to bet this: Dodger Stadium has the second-lowest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.<\/p>\n
Projection: 15% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.68 EV
One reason to bet this: Dodger Stadium’s CF fences are also the ninth-shallowest in the majors.<\/p>\n
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.88 EV
One reason to bet this: Over the past 14 days, Cruz’s 27.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23-34 degrees) shows big improvement over his season-long rate of 16.8%.<\/p>\n
Projection: 48% chance of this bet hitting, with a $5.47 EV
One reason to bet this: This game is projected to have the fifth-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.<\/p>\n
Projection: 51% chance of this bet hitting, with a $5.04 EV
One reason to bet this: Per my projections, the offense with the second-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the San Diego Padres<\/a> with a 18.9 underlying K%.<\/p>\n