{"id":11403,"date":"2025-07-21T18:03:11","date_gmt":"2025-07-21T18:03:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/11403\/"},"modified":"2025-07-21T18:03:11","modified_gmt":"2025-07-21T18:03:11","slug":"higher-highs-lower-yields-crypto-mojo-the-market-keeps-dancing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/11403\/","title":{"rendered":"Higher Highs, Lower Yields & Crypto Mojo \u2014 The Market Keeps Dancing"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Higher<\/a><\/p>\n

It rained all week for those who were long rising volatility, falling yields, or fading Old Wall narratives.<\/p>\n

But for us, with a process rooted in the river\u2019s current (not yesterday\u2019s forecast), the sun has been out and #HedgeyeNation has been enjoying it.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Welcome to another Macro Monday @Hedgeye, where the quantitative Risk Ranges\u2122 Signals are mapped, Macro Quad data is locked, and The Game remains humbling to anyone caught flat-footed in consensus.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s your Top 3 things to watch this week:<\/p>\n

1. RATES \u2014 TEXTBOOK BREAKDOWN\u00a0<\/p>\n

The move in rates last week was right out of the Hedgeye playbook. Both the U.S. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields broke down from the\u00a0Top-End of the Risk Range\u2122 Signal,\u00a0right after a hotter-than-expected CPI report.<\/p>\n

If that seems backwards to your econ professor, that\u2019s because\u00a0they don\u2019t trade real-time markets.<\/p>\n

\"Higher<\/a><\/p>\n

“Anticipation is a feature unique to economics…A [security’s] price rises not because of good news from the company, but because investors anticipate it will rise further, so they buy…It is psychology, individual and mass.” \u2014Benoit Mandelbrot, The Misbehavior of Markets<\/p>\n

Mandelbrot nails it. The bond market isn’t reacting to the last CPI print\u2014it’s front-running the next one. Our Hedgeye CPI Nowcast shows inflation set to decelerate in July, and yields are reflecting that expectation.<\/p>\n

This kind of breakdown in yields is classic Quad 3 behavior: a regime defined by slowing growth and sticky inflation, where market psychology leads price action before the data confirms it.<\/p>\n

We frame every macro regime using our Quad framework. Each one has a distinct signature\u2014and a distinct playbook:<\/p>\n

\"Higher<\/a><\/p>\n

2. UTILITIES \u2014 WINNING ISN’T \u201cBORING\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

On Friday, Utilities (XLU) had themselves a day. A move of +1.7% might sound dull on paper, but it was a\u00a0high-conviction signal confirmation for us. Why? Because it coincided with the breakdown in bond yields\u2014and that\u2019s not random.<\/p>\n

\"Higher<\/a><\/p>\n

This move correlated highly with the aforementioned breakdown in UST Bond Yields.<\/p>\n

When Treasury yields fall and rate sensitivity spikes, Utilities\u2014those so-called \u201cboring\u201d names\u2014tend to pay off.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s exactly what we saw here: not some fluke defensive pop, but a deliberate market signal consistent with a shift toward Quad 3.<\/p>\n

3. BITCOIN \u2014 THE OTHER ALL-TIME HIGH<\/p>\n

Bitcoin is quietly doing exactly what the signal said it would:\u00a0going higher.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s up over 13% in the past month and pushing toward all-time highs again this morning.<\/p>\n

\"Higher<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

Alongside QQQ, crypto is moving with growthy exposure, momentum, and flow. We\u2019re watching closely for top-end exhaustion signals in the Risk Range\u2122 for both BTC and Big Tech, but until then, the setup remains bullish in Quad terms.<\/p>\n

Want to stay ahead of the curve?<\/p>\n

ETF Pro Plus is built for that\u2014backed by the same Macro process and signals that caught the moves in Utilities, Bitcoin, Global Equities, and more.<\/p>\n

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This limited-time offer is for new ETF Pro subscribers only\u2014and it gets you 66% off 3 months of full access to our Macro-aligned ETF positioning.<\/p>\n

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\"Higher<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"It rained all week for those who were long rising volatility, falling yields, or fading Old Wall narratives.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11404,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[64,63,99,13316,171,13315,13317],"class_list":{"0":"post-11403","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-markets","8":"tag-au","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-ibit","12":"tag-markets","13":"tag-qqq","14":"tag-xlu"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11403","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11403"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11403\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11404"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11403"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11403"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11403"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}