{"id":11633,"date":"2025-07-21T20:14:12","date_gmt":"2025-07-21T20:14:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/11633\/"},"modified":"2025-07-21T20:14:12","modified_gmt":"2025-07-21T20:14:12","slug":"who-will-make-finals-in-the-race-for-the-top-eight-and-how-your-team-can-be-a-finals-spoiler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/11633\/","title":{"rendered":"Who will make finals in the race for the top eight, and how your team can be a finals spoiler"},"content":{"rendered":"

What we say: This is a tough run home, with four of their five opponents firmly in finals contention, and Sydney still pushing. We\u2019re tipping \u2013 without confidence \u2013 that the Lions may win only two of these, against the Swans and Hawks, while the Dockers are vulnerable despite their win over the Magpies. Regardless, the Lions will be well-placed come September to challenge for back-to-back flags. Best case: First. Worst case: Fifth.<\/p>\n

\"At<\/p>\n

At last: Matthew Nicks\u2019 Crows are heading back to September for the first time since 2017.Credit: AFL Photos via Getty Images<\/p>\n

Adelaide<\/p>\n

What we say: It\u2019s refreshing to see the Crows back in finals contention, let alone challenging for the top four; they haven\u2019t featured in September action since 2017. Boasting arguably the best forward line in the competition, they have a relatively friendly run home, with the Eagles and Kangaroos on the menu. This week\u2019s Showdown will be a beauty, and we\u2019re backing them to topple the Magpies in round 23, potentially finishing with the minor premiership (if the Magpies stumble against fellow contenders), but more likely as high as second. Best case: First. Worst case: Fifth.<\/p>\n

\"September<\/p>\n

September dreaming: Steele Sidebottom, Bailey Smith, Jack Ginnivan and Rory Lobb have premiership aspirations.Credit: AFL Photos \/ Getty<\/p>\n

Geelong<\/p>\n

What we say: Wow \u2013 the Cats could barely have asked for a smoother run home. The Kangaroos, Bombers and Tigers should be roadkill, while the Power have to make the trip east, and should be beaten (baring in mind the Power prevailed by a goal at GMHBA Stadium last year). That leaves an intriguing trip north to face the Swans in round 23. We like the Swans\u2019 chances there, although that could change if their September dream is over. Best case: First. Worst case: Fifth.<\/p>\n

\"Happy<\/p>\n

Happy days: Hawthorn coach Sam Mitchell and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese may be in the same camp, but there\u2019s no guarantee the Hawks are alive come September.Credit: AFL Photos<\/p>\n

Hawthorn<\/p>\n

What we say: We\u2019re backing the Hawks to get the job done against the Blues and Demons (they ended a run of nine games without a win over the Demons earlier this year), but their fate will largely be decided against the Crows, Magpies and Brisbane. Pinch at least one win, and they are in; lose all three, which is not out of the question going on their results against the Magpies and Lions earlier this season, and they could have September off. Best case: First. Worst case: Ninth.<\/p>\n

\"Giant<\/p>\n

Giant grab: Jesse Hogan is keen for GWS to make amends for their recent finals performances.Credit: Fox Footy<\/p>\n

GWS<\/p>\n

What we say: The Giants are on a five-game winning streak (including beating three top-eight teams), but that will be tested by their cross-town rivals. We\u2019ll back them in though, while there will be wins over the Kangaroos and Saints. That leaves two road games \u2013 a potentially salty clash against the Bulldogs, and a trip north to face the Suns \u2013 to shape where they finish. A top-four finish, or even top two, is within their grasp, but we think they\u2019ll just miss the double chance. Best case: First. Worst case: Seventh.<\/p>\n

\"Getting<\/p>\n

Getting it done: Justin Longmuir has been under enormous pressure to deliver a major finals run for the Dockers.Credit: AFL Photos via Getty Images<\/p>\n

Fremantle<\/p>\n

What we say: This time last year, we backed the Dockers to potentially finish in the top four. They missed September entirely. While they appear a more fortified unit now, highlighted by how well they handled the pressurised final minutes against the Magpies<\/a>, we remain wary. There should be wins over the Eagles and Blues, but can they be confidently backed to win two of their final three games? It\u2019s line ball. Best case: First. Worst case: Ninth.<\/p>\n

\"Sun<\/p>\n

Sun rising: Fresh off signing a new contract, Matt Rowell is desperate for Gold Coast to finally make a finals splash.Credit: Getty Images<\/p>\n

Gold Coast<\/p>\n

What we say: Just when we thought the Suns were finals ready, they served up a shocker in Adelaide<\/a>, falling to eighth spot. However, they have an ace up their sleeve, in that they still have a make-up game against the Bombers. They will easily account for the Tigers and Bombers, while the Blues at Marvel Stadium should be another win. That leaves the Lions this week, GWS and the Power to determine where they ultimately finish in the top eight. In a tight finish, the double chance is still there for the taking, but dare we say it, so is a September free of football. Best case: Third. Worst case: Ninth.<\/p>\n

\"Not<\/p>\n

Not again: Superstar Marcus Bontempelli and his Western Bulldogs are again battling to make the finals.Credit: Getty Images<\/p>\n

Western Bulldogs<\/p>\n

What we say: The Bulldogs have been the most frustrating side of 2025. While they boast a playing list that should be in contention for the flag, a leaky defence has meant they find themselves fighting to just make the top eight \u2013 yet they could still finish in the top four. Go figure. They should bank wins over the Bombers, Demons and Eagles, leaving their two home games, against the Giants in round 21 and the Dockers in round 24, as arguably the most defining games of the entire season. Not only will they shape the Bulldogs\u2019 fate in a season in which they have a terrible record (1-8) against top eight rivals, but there is plenty riding on these results for their opponents. An ace for the Bulldogs is their super percentage. We still feel they could finish as high as sixth. Best case: Third. Worst case: Ninth.<\/p>\n

\"Tag<\/p>\n

Tag team: Brodie Grundy and Errol Gulden have been instrumental in the Swans\u2019 late season rise.Credit: for Getty Images<\/p>\n

Sydney<\/p>\n

What we say: It\u2019s as simple as this for Dean Cox and his men. They must win all of their remaining games<\/a>, preferably by heavy margins, and rely on other results going their way if they are to miraculously be alive come September. While the return of Errol Gulden from injury has revitalised the team, the Swans \u2013 with three finalists among their run home \u2013 will fall short. Best case: Eighth. Worst case: Ninth or lower.<\/p>\n

\"Forget<\/p>\n

Forget finals: Port Adelaide\u2019s Ken Hinkley and Carlton\u2019s Michael Voss have not had the seasons they wanted.Credit: Getty Images, The Age<\/p>\n

Port Adelaide<\/p>\n

What we say: No hope. This shapes as being a season when 14 wins are needed to make the top eight. If that\u2019s the case, the Power are finished. But if there are a string of upsets, and 13 wins is enough to slip into September, and the Power win all of their remaining five games and considerably boost their percentage, Ken Hinkley may get the shock of his life. Regardless, it\u2019s hard not to feel this club has already turned its attention to 2026 when Josh Carr officially takes charge. Best case: Eighth. Worst case: Eleventh.<\/p>\n

Finals spoilers<\/p>\n

There is still something for teams out of contention to play for. They won\u2019t be playing in September, but they can have an impact on who else makes it \u2013 and these are the games when that could happen.<\/p>\n

Carlton<\/p>\n

Seven wins, 11 losses; 28 points
R22: v Gold Coast, Marvel Stadium
The Suns not only have finals within reach, but are eying the top four. The Blues, however, have won their past three against the Suns, including at Marvel Stadium last year.<\/p>\n

Melbourne<\/p>\n

Six wins, 12 losses; 24 points
R22: v Western Bulldogs, MCG
These teams have not met this season, and split their results last year, with the Demons winning at the MCG. The Dogs are fighting to just make the top eight. A loss here could cruel their hopes.<\/p>\n

Essendon<\/p>\n

Six wins, 11 losses; 24 points
R21: v Sydney, SCG
This may seem like an eternity ago to Bombers fans, but they did edge the Swans by eight points at Marvel Stadium in round nine. The Swans need to win all of their remaining games to have any hope of making finals. Could the depleted Dons conjure something from nothing?<\/p>\n

\"Can<\/p>\n

Can the injury-hit Bombers play spoiler?Credit: Getty Images<\/p>\n

St Kilda<\/p>\n

Five wins, 13 losses; 20 points
R24: v GWS, Engie Stadium
The Giants prevailed by 28 points when the teams met in Gather Round, the Saints leaving their run too late. The Giants are finals bound, but the top four could be on the line in this game. Don\u2019t rule out Ross Lyon eking out a shock win, just as the Saints did against the Blues in the corresponding round last year.<\/p>\n

Richmond<\/p>\n

Loading<\/p>\n

Five wins, 13 losses; 20 points
R24: v Geelong, MCG
The Tigers were thumped by 12 goals at GMHBA Stadium when these teams met a fortnight ago. This may be a long shot, but should the Cats rest a few of their stars, and the Tigers \u2013 who have exceeded expectations \u2013 get on a roll, the Cats may find their top-two hopes hurt.<\/p>\n

North Melbourne<\/p>\n

Four wins, 13 losses, one draw; 18 points
R24: v Adelaide, Marvel Stadium
It\u2019s been another disappointing season for the Kangaroos, including a six-goal loss to the Crows in Adelaide in round three. The Crows could have a top-two berth riding on this game, or they could opt to rest a key player or two. Could the Kangaroos pounce?<\/p>\n

West Coast<\/p>\n

One win, 17 losses; Four points
R20: v Fremantle, Optus Stadium
The Eagles have been nothing short of diabolical, as the pressure to retain Harley Reid rises. One win tells the tale. If they are going to lift and be a finals spoiler, surely it\u2019s against their cross-town rivals, who have a top-four finish in their sights. It\u2019s time this mob got physical.<\/p>\n

Keep up to date with the best AFL coverage in the country. Sign up for the Real Footy newsletter<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"What we say: This is a tough run home, with four of their five opponents firmly in finals…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11634,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[560],"tags":[638,64,63,55,639,85],"class_list":["post-11633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-afl","tag-afl","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-australian-football-league","tag-australianfootballleague","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11633","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11633"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11633\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11634"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11633"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11633"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11633"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}