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ADELAIDE CROWS<\/p>\n
1st, 18-5, Qualifying Final vs. Collingwood at the Adelaide Oval<\/p>\n
Why they can win the flag<\/p>\n
They qualified No. 1. And in an era where any minor advantage could be the difference, the fact they have two home finals \u2014 potentially a prelim, should they win on Thursday night \u2014 is significant. Adelaide has a 12-1 record at Adelaide Oval this year, too.<\/p>\n
Three of the past four AFL premiers, too, have won the flag after finishing first on the ladder.<\/p>\n
The Crows also boast the best \u2018Core Four Profile\u2019 ranking in the competition and charge into September in awesome form, having won each of their past five games. <\/p>\n
Champion Data classifies Adelaide as the best side \u2018without the footy\u2019, led by brilliant interceptors Mark Keane and Josh Worrell in defence. The club finished the home-and-away season a stingy second in the competition for points against, behind only Collingwood. Its stout defensive backbone will hold it in terrific stead. <\/p>\n
The Crows\u2019 three-headed forward monster of Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty and Taylor Walker will propel things at the other end of the ground, especially in Izak Rankine\u2019s absence. Thilthorpe, in particular, looms as a massive finals weapon for the Crows after a breathtaking 55-goal All-Australian season.<\/p>\n
They\u2019re also well led by their coach Matthew Nicks and captain Jordan Dawson, who\u2019ve both shown great composure and resilience in high-pressure situations this year to help their team deliver.<\/p>\n
Overall, the Crows are also healthy, with all but two of their best players available for week one selection.<\/p>\n
Why they can\u2019t win the flag<\/p>\n
The Crows are preparing to play in their first finals campaign in eight years. And history dictates that a club embarking on its first finals campaign in a long period doesn\u2019t tend to go on and win it all in that breakthrough campaign. <\/p>\n
Especially a club that has climbed from 15th to first in 12 months. An incredible achievement, yes, but one that means they\u2019ll have to buck recent footy trends.<\/p>\n
Just four teams have gone from missing finals one year to winning the premiership the next in the top-eight era: Melbourne (2021), Richmond (2017), Geelong (2007) and Adelaide (1997). All of those sides had at least played finals within the previous four seasons, and all bar Richmond had made it to preliminary final weekend within that time period.<\/p>\n
Personnel-wise, they might be healthy, but the Rankine void has the potential to derail the minor premiers\u2019 flag tilt. A star of that calibre will be sorely missed, irrespective of Matthew Nicks\u2019 forward firepower. Rankine the player seems born for finals \u2014 and the only way he\u2019d return from suspension is if the Crows lost their first final to Collingwood before winning the hard way through to a Grand Final.<\/p>\n
And, ideally, if Rankine is not there, fellow game-breaker Josh Rachele would \u2014 and yet he\u2019s potentially another game or two away with his knee injury. <\/p>\n
Additionally, ball movement has been something of an issue for the Crows, ranking a lowly 13th for their ability to transition from defensive 50 to attacking 50. Plus do they have the midfield depth to match it with the best on-ball brigades in the competition in September?<\/p>\n
Saints ‘should be rapt’ with Silvagni | 01:39<\/p>\n
GEELONG CATS<\/p>\n
2nd, 17-6, Qualifying Final vs. Brisbane Lions at the MCG<\/p>\n
Why they can win the flag<\/p>\n
Because they\u2019ve been here before, so many times. <\/p>\n
This will be Geelong\u2019s 17th finals appearance in the past 19 years, which has included a remarkable 15 top-four finishes. This club just knows what this time of the year is all about.<\/p>\n
Under Chris Scott, the Cats have triumphed twice on the last Saturday in September, and there aren\u2019t many reasons to think they can\u2019t this year. <\/p>\n
The Cats, too, are arguably the healthiest team coming into finals, with only young ruck Toby Conway on their injury list. They enter September with all of their best players available, for they are one of the best teams in the competition at managing the full season.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s hard to argue that Geelong\u2019s forward unit isn\u2019t the best of any finalist. Key forwards? Just Coleman medallist Jeremy Cameron and understudy Shannon Neale. Smalls? Shaun Mannagh, Tyson Stengle and Brad Close, with the likes of Patrick Dangerfield and Gryan Miers filtering through. <\/p>\n
The defence is just as convincing as the attack, led by five-time All-Australian Tom Stewart and stingy stopper Jack Henry, with Sam De Koning and Connor O\u2019Sullivan quickly rising up the ranks.<\/p>\n
And one of Geelong\u2019s biggest weapons this year has been \u2018The Dash Brothers\u2019, with Bailey Smith and Max Holmes\u2019 gut-busting run and prolific ball-winning ability tearing many opposition teams apart so far. They could be the difference between a win and a loss in September.<\/p>\n
Need another reason to believe in the Cats? Scott is the best tactical coach in the game. Boasting a 68.5 per cent all-time win rate, he\u2019s up there with the great modern-day football strategists. <\/p>\n
Why they can\u2019t win the flag<\/p>\n
History suggests that despite the Cats\u2019 stellar ability to consistently finish high on the ladder, more often than not they haven\u2019t been able to turn that into silverware. <\/p>\n
You can spin the aforementioned numbers another way. Since winning the 2011 premiership, the Chris Scott-led Cats have managed 10 top-four finishes in 14 seasons \u2014 but for just one flag. <\/p>\n
They overcame those accumulating mental demons in 2022 to obliterate Sydney, but in most cases over the past decade and a half, they haven\u2019t. <\/p>\n
Under Scott, the Cats have a 70.5 per cent regular-season win rate, compared with a far less convincing 46.7 per cent in finals.<\/p>\n
Also, could Geelong\u2019s \u2018soft\u2019 draw in the lead-up to the finals work against it? It didn\u2019t in its 2022 premiership campaign, despite playing just two top-eight teams in their final 10 home and away games. But after a heartbreaking preliminary final loss last year to Brisbane last year, coach Chris Fagan raised the following prospect: \u201cThis is not Geelong\u2019s fault, but if you look at their last game of the season against West Coast, they were 100 points in front at half-time. It was a low-pressure, low-contested game. Then they have the week off, and then they play Port in a final where it was a similar sort of game, low-pressure, low-contest game. Then they have another week off. I just felt like, it\u2019s good to have the time off, but you need the games that you play to be really hard, tough games, and maybe at the end that showed.\u201d<\/p>\n
Again, Geelong has played just two top-eight teams in its past 10 games \u2014 and the Cats dropped both of those matches to the Lions and Giants \u2026<\/p>\n
Nicks admits inside 50 count a must-fix | 02:48<\/p>\n
BRISBANE LIONS<\/p>\n
3rd, 16-6-1, Qualifying Final vs. Geelong Cats<\/p>\n
Why they can win the flag<\/p>\n
Stating the obvious, but because they did it last year.<\/p>\n
This will be their seventh-straight finals series under Chris Fagan, with the Lions also featuring in the past two consecutive Grand Finals.<\/p>\n
Crucially, the Lions play their best footy against the best sides. They\u2019ve won a league-best seven games this year against top-eight teams, including wins over Collingwood, Fremantle and Hawthorn in the past month. That can\u2019t be underestimated.<\/p>\n
Against those top-eight opponents, Brisbane is defensively sound; first for intercept-to-score against, and second for score-per-inside-50 against. <\/p>\n
The Lions are also an elite ball movement team going the other way, ranking No. 3 in the competition for the rate at which they transition the footy from defensive 50 to attacking 50. <\/p>\n
Overall, the Lions just feel like the most hardened team you can also most trust heading into this year\u2019s finals series. And after winning it from fifth in 2024, the prospect of claiming the premiership from third spot this year won\u2019t intimidate them either.<\/p>\n
Why they can\u2019t win the flag<\/p>\n
For starters, they\u2019re the hunted. Every opposition finalist goes into September identifying the Lions as the team to beat.<\/p>\n
And to borrow a David King-ism, health hasn\u2019t been Brisbane\u2019s best player in 2025. <\/p>\n
Injuries to key players have hurt Brisbane throughout the year, with Eric Hipwood, Jack Payne, Noah Answerth, Keidean Coleman and Lincoln McCarthy among the key unavailable names. <\/p>\n
And shockingly, despite finishing in third spot, the Lions have the 12th-ranked \u2018Core Four\u2019 profile rating \u2014 easily the worst among finalists. They also have the second-worst percentage of the top eight.<\/p>\n
And while Brisbane is hard to score against once teams go inside 50, it has the tendency to be leaky in transition. <\/p>\n
The Lions, like most clubs, love to play a forward-half pressure game. But if the opposition gets past their defensive-midfield zone, Brisbane can be opened up. <\/p>\n
Pies call up Cox for Crows clash | 03:38<\/p>\n
COLLINGWOOD<\/p>\n
4th, 16-7, Qualifying Final vs. Adelaide Crows<\/p>\n
Why they can win the flag<\/p>\n
You could argue Collingwood was the best team in the competition for the majority of the season.<\/p>\n
The Pies were first on the ladder between Rounds 11 and 21, spending just three total weeks outside the top four and earning early-season premiership favouritism for good reason. <\/p>\n
And despite their recent struggles capitalising in attack, the Magpies still finished the year as the league\u2019s No. 1 defence by points against. <\/p>\n
Assuming they\u2019ll remain difficult to score against, and as long as they\u2019re capitalising on their forward entries, there\u2019s no reason the Pies can\u2019t go 3-0 this September. The week one trip to Adelaide won\u2019t intimidate them at all, for the Pies for years have developed a reputation for being one of the best travelling teams in the competition.<\/p>\n
Essentially, they\u2019ve got the same core of players who won the whole thing in 2023. And clearly the Pies have bolstered their list since then, with Dan Houston, Tim Membrey, Lachie Schultz, Harry Perryman and Ned Long to all play in their first finals series as Collingwood players.<\/p>\n
While the Pies have the oldest list the competition\u2019s ever seen, it also means they\u2019ve got more than a wealth of experience that\u2019ll hold them in good stead in September. <\/p>\n
Why they can\u2019t win the flag<\/p>\n
Clearly, the form in the run home is far from ideal. History suggests losing three of your final five home and away games just about dooms your premiership chances. <\/p>\n
In particular, the Pies\u2019 punishment game has well and truly tapered off in recent times. Over the past six rounds, the Pies have ranked 13th for intercept-to-score rate, 15th for clearance-to-score rate, and 13th for half-back-to-score rate. <\/p>\n
Jeremy Howe\u2019s absence, too, due to a groin issue is significant. While Darcy Moore is the captain of the team, Howe is the general of the backline who sets the team up with aplomb. Without Howe, the Pies seem more vulnerable behind the ball.<\/p>\n
While Craig McRae\u2019s side will regain Beau McCreery for Thursday night\u2019s showdown against the Crows, Bobby Hill\u2019s continued absence hurts this forward line and its ability to be dangerous in forward-half transition.<\/p>\n
And in another piece of history that doesn\u2019t bode well for the black and white, the last time a team that finished in fourth spot on the ladder wound up winning the premiership was in 1997.<\/p>\n
Most overpaid & underpaid players in AFL | 07:25<\/p>\n
GWS GIANTS<\/p>\n
5th, 16-7, Elimination Final vs. Hawthorn<\/p>\n
Why they can win the flag<\/p>\n
At their very best, this side is near unbeatable.<\/p>\n
And at their best, they beat the best. The Giants have the best win-loss record \u2014 6-3 with a percentage of 109.7 \u2014 against top-eight teams this year. <\/p>\n
Overall, they enter September in sharp form, winning 11 of their past 13 games. They take the game on and play at a blistering pace transitioning the Sherrin in orange waves. <\/p>\n
The Giants are also perennial finalists, featuring in September in seven of the past nine seasons. They know all about this time of the year.<\/p>\n
While Geelong might have the most potent forward line, the Giants\u2019 attacking unit certainly gives it a run for its money \u2014 and they\u2019ve also got a Coleman medallist. Jesse Hogan, Toby Greene, Aaron Cadman, Jake Stringer and Darcy Jones, who are all set to be healthy and playing in the same side this Saturday, are capable of wreaking irreparable havoc. <\/p>\n
In defence, the trio of Sam Taylor, Jack Buckley and Connor Idun is as reliable as they come, with rebound support from Lachie Ash, Lachie Whitfield and Harry Himmelberg.<\/p>\n
And should Finn Callaghan catch fire this finals series, watch out. You just sense this explosive midfield is primed for an eye-catching September campaign.<\/p>\n
Lastly, after Brisbane\u2019s flag triumph from fifth last year, the Giants are just as capable of winning it this year from the same position.<\/p>\n
Why they can\u2019t win the flag<\/p>\n
A lack of health and continuity.<\/p>\n
While the Giants are set to welcome back an array of players for Saturday\u2019s clash against Hawthorn, they enter the finals with the longest injury list in the competition.<\/p>\n
In recent weeks, Hogan has been battling a foot issue, Stringer and Buckley have been sidelined and Brent Daniels has been unable to stay available. <\/p>\n
And how many inclusions is too many for the match? The re-injury risk of bringing back so many players for a high-pressure first final is significant.<\/p>\n
Inconsistency has also been problematic for Adam Kingsley\u2019s charges this year \u2014 the Round 21 loss to the Bulldogs, for example \u2014 so they seem nowhere near as trustworthy as a team like the Lions.<\/p>\n
And despite their ability to qualify for finals, they\u2019ve only gone as far as a preliminary final this decade.<\/p>\n
‘No Way a Victim’: Rankine fronts media | 01:29<\/p>\n
FREMANTLE<\/p>\n
6th, 16-7, Elimination Final vs. Gold Coast Suns<\/p>\n
Why they can win the flag<\/p>\n
Because when they play with dare and speed, there are few sides that can stop them. <\/p>\n
One of the shining examples was in the Dockers\u2019 stirring comeback win over Collingwood in Round 19, when they left the Pies stunned by a fourth-quarter blitz headlined by no-holds-barred ball movement in transition. <\/p>\n
It\u2019s that style of game in attack, and their stingy defensive unit, which gives Justin Longmuir\u2019s side a shot at fulfilling Fremantle\u2019s flag prophecy. It also has an impressive 5-3 record against top-eight teams \u2014 good for third-best in the AFL this year.<\/p>\n
Since Round 10, the Dockers have ranked fifth for points against, fifth for score-per-inside-50 against, and second for defending ball movement.<\/p>\n
Additionally, the fact that the Dockers go into Saturday\u2019s clash with Gold Coast largely in healthy shape is another crucial boost. <\/p>\n
Regaining Hayden Young was an absolute must, while Nat Fyfe has also got himself back on the park for one final run at an elusive flag. Corey Wagner is the only regular first-team player who won\u2019t be available this September. <\/p>\n
The forward line has also been in sharp shape in recent weeks, with Josh Treacy, Patrick Voss and Jye Amiss all in good goalkicking form since Round 21.<\/p>\n
Why they can\u2019t win the flag<\/p>\n
We don\u2019t see that crisp, fast-paced ball movement frequently enough. <\/p>\n
Too often this season and under Justin Longmuir, the Dockers have moved the ball in too circumspect a fashion; more focused on how they\u2019re going to defend their goals in transition rather than trying to cut holes in the opposition with their ball use. <\/p>\n
Fremantle\u2019s defensive-50-to-inside-50 rate sits second-worst among finalists and 11th in the competition for the season. <\/p>\n
Further, since the middle portion of the season, the Dockers have struggled punishing the opposition off turnover \u2014 since Round 10, the Dockers have sat just 10th for intercept-to-score rate and clearance-to-score rate. <\/p>\n
If they\u2019re not relying on back-half ball movement nor scoring from turnover, they\u2019re almost solely relying on stoppage ascendancy and holding up in the back half to win games. <\/p>\n
And while the Dockers will go into Saturday night\u2019s home final as warm favourites, their run to premiership glory after a elimination final win would be tough. Because they\u2019d then play the loser of Geelong-Brisbane \u2014 away from home \u2014 in a semi-final then, should they win that, the winner of Adelaide-Collingwood \u2014 away from home. It\u2019s a nasty side of the draw to be on.<\/p>\n
‘The man will play’ Hardwick on Swallow | 02:46<\/p>\n
GOLD COAST SUNS<\/p>\n
7th, 15-8, Elimination Final vs. Fremantle<\/p>\n
Why they can win the flag<\/p>\n
Of all eight finalists, the Suns have the least amount of pressure on them. Making finals for many pundits was the pass mark \u2014 and they\u2019ve ticked that off already. Albeit, just.<\/p>\n
With expectations on them low, the Suns now have a free swing at a maiden finals campaign. And that\u2019s a dangerous proposition for their September rivals should the Suns play with freedom and dare.<\/p>\n
Stoppage is what they\u2019ll lean on when times get tough on Saturday night against Fremantle \u2014 and throughout September should they clear the first hurdle. <\/p>\n
Powered by All-Australian midfield stars Noah Anderson and Matt Rowell, it\u2019s no surprise the Suns are one of the best sides at the coalface. <\/p>\n
Gold Coast finished the regular season sitting third for points-from-clearance differential, fourth for contested possession differential, and second for clearance differential. <\/p>\n
And while almost every Sun set to line up on Saturday night will have never played in a final before, that is far from the case for coach Damien Hardwick, who led Richmond to three premierships between 2017-20 and will be a steady head for his young troops. <\/p>\n
The inclusion of club stalwart David Swallow, too, should be a timely emotional boost for the playing group.<\/p>\n
Why they can\u2019t win the flag<\/p>\n
It\u2019s already a massive task for the Suns to go into Perth and beat Fremantle in their first-ever final, let alone for them to go on and win the whole thing.<\/p>\n
It\u2019d be one thing for the Adelaide Crows, who hadn\u2019t qualified for finals in eight years, to storm to a premiership in their breakthrough year \u2014 let alone first-time-finalists Gold Coast, which has achieved nothing of note in its 14 years of existence to this point. <\/p>\n
The overwhelming inexperience of this side could well cost it in high-pressure moments this weekend at Optus Stadium \u2014 and even if they progress to the second week. <\/p>\n
The Suns own just a 4-6 record against top-eight teams, and their performance against top opposition is part of the reason for pessimism. <\/p>\n
Against this year\u2019s finalists, Gold Coast is 17th for intercept-to-score rate, 13th for half-back-to-score rate, and 15th for score-per-inside-50 rate. <\/p>\n
Buckley claims “not true” says Lyon | 03:21<\/p>\n
HAWTHORN<\/p>\n
8th, 15-8, Elimination Final vs. GWS Giants<\/p>\n
Why they can win the flag<\/p>\n
Don\u2019t let eighth position fool you. Had the Hawks beaten Brisbane, they would\u2019ve earned the double chance. That\u2019s how close the margins are between the teams this finals series.<\/p>\n
The fact they were even in that position shows you they\u2019re a quality unit. They\u2019ve won eight of their past 11 games, with their three losses all coming against top-eight sides by 14 points or less.<\/p>\n
And despite finishing eighth, Hawthorn could prime itself for a run at the premiership with three \u2018home\u2019 finals if it gets past GWS and other results fall its way. The Hawks will travel to Sydney to face the Giants in an elimination final \u2014 and if they win, they could get Collingwood in an MCG semi-final if the Pies lose to top-seed Adelaide in their qualifying final. Then, if all is still going to plan, the Hawks could wind up playing Geelong at the home of footy in a preliminary final if the second-placed Cats get past Brisbane in their qualifier. Then, of course, an MCG Grand Final potentially awaits.<\/p>\n
Coach Sam Mitchell, too, knows all about this time of the year. He\u2019s obviously not there yet, but there\u2019s a reality in the future where we look at Mitchell like we do Chris Scott; one of the great tacticians of the game.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s made the four tall forwards set-up work \u2014 in a campaign that produced a completely unexpected Jack Gunston All-Australian blazer \u2014 and he\u2019s made Josh Battle and Tom Barrass\u2019 inclusion to the back six virtually seamless. <\/p>\n
And with Battle and Barrass in tow, the Hawks have ranked third for points against, fifth for intercept-to-score against, third for clearance-to-score against, and fifth for score-per-inside-50 against.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s only ever been done twice, but if there\u2019s a side who could win it all from outside the top four this year, it feels like the Hawks. <\/p>\n
With the rest of the competition onto them now, they haven\u2019t quite hit the \u2018Hollywood\u2019 heights of last year, but this is a side much better off after last year\u2019s finals experience. <\/p>\n
Why they can\u2019t win the flag<\/p>\n
For starters, they\u2019re trying to come from eighth to do it. No team has come from eighth to win the premiership, with the Dogs in 2016 coming from seventh and the Lions last year from fifth. <\/p>\n
Getting past the first hurdle could be tough, too. In six all-time attempts, the Hawks have never beaten the Giants at ENGIE Stadium.<\/p>\n
And while the defence has been as stout as anything, transition the other way could definitely do with some improvement. Sam Mitchell\u2019s side has ranked just 12th for intercept-to-score and 11th for half-back-to-score. <\/p>\n
In a further concern, the Hawks sit ninth this year for their 3-7 record against top-eight teams. <\/p>\n
You also sense the Hawks are a midfielder or two short to take them all the way, compared to other midfield brigades in the finals series. Gee Will Day would be handy \u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Eight finalists, eight chances at joining history. The 2025 AFL finals get underway on Thursday \u2014 and 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