Exit polls show Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling coalition has lost its majority in country’s upper house, the latest in a string of poor election results.<\/p>\n
Since he came to power, Mr Ishiba’s coalition has lost its majorities in both the lower and upper houses of parliament amid voter anger over rising living costs.<\/p>\n
Its lower house majority was lost in October 2024 and its upper house majority in July 2025.<\/p>\n
Factors for their demise include rising prices, notably for rice, falling living standards, and anger at corruption scandals within the LDP. \u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
After the defeat in July, Mr Ishiba originally told the public broadcaster NHK, he “solemnly” accepted the “harsh result” but vowed to stay on as prime minister.<\/p>\n
Ishiba has had mounting pressure to resign<\/p>\n
Opponents of Ishiba have been calling on him to step down since July, after his party lost its majority in the upper chamber.<\/p>\n
Those backing the move included 84-year-old former prime minister Taro Aso.<\/p>\n
Last week, four senior LDP officials, including the party’s secretary general, Hiroshi Moriyama, also offered to resign.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Shigeru Ishiba has been the prime minister of Japan for less than a year. (Reuters: Kyodo)<\/p>\n
Mr Ishiba said during the televised press conference on Sunday that he would start a process to hold a party leadership vote to choose his replacement and that there was no need for Monday\u2019s decision.<\/p>\n
If the prime minister had stayed on, he would have inevitably struggled to manage his divided party and minority government.<\/p>\n
This may trigger a new leadership race<\/p>\n
With Mr Ishiba stepping down as party leader, the LDP is expected to set a date for its party presidential election, likely to be held in early October.<\/p>\n
In the last party leadership race in September 2024, candidates needed to secure 20 nominations from the party’s lawmakers to be eligible to run.<\/p>\n
Candidates will then embark on a period of debates and campaigns across Japan, culminating in a vote by politicians and rank-and-file party members.\u00a0<\/p>\n
A candidate securing a simple majority in that poll becomes party leader.<\/p>\n
Lacking a majority in both houses, the next LDP leader will have to work with the main opposition parties to get bills passed, experts say, or else face constant risks of no-confidence motions.<\/p>\n
The opposition parties, however, are too splintered to form a big coalition to topple the government.<\/p>\n
Who could replace Ishiba?<\/p>\n
Sanae Takaichi is Mr Sihiba’s most prominent rival and was the runner-up in the last leadership election in 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u00a0Sanae\u00a0Takaichi was\u00a0runner-up in the last leadership election in 2024. (Reuters: Takashi Aoyama)<\/p>\n
Ms Takaichi stands out for her vocal opposition to the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes and her calls to ramp up spending to boost the fragile economy.<\/p>\n
A Nikkei survey held at the end of August put Ms Takaichi as the most “fitting” successor to Ishiba.<\/p>\n
If chosen, Ms Takaichi would be Japan’s first female prime minister.<\/p>\n
Others have continued support for Ishiba, with the Nikkei survey showing 52 per cent of respondents said a leadership contest was unnecessary.<\/p>\n
After the election, social media users also called for Ishiba to remain in power under the hashtag “#Ishiba Don’t quit”.<\/p>\n
Shinjiro Koizumi, 44, is another potential replacement for Mr Ishiba and would become Japan’s youngest prime minister in the modern era if chosen.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Shinjiro Koizumi is currently Japan’s agriculture minister.\u00a0 (Reuters: Kim Kyung-Hoon)<\/p>\n
Mr Koizumi ran in last year’s party leadership race, presenting himself as a reformer able to restore public trust in a scandal-hit party.<\/p>\n
Unlike Ms Takaichi, who left government after her defeat in that contest, the Columbia University-educated Mr Koizumi stayed close to Mr Ishiba as his agriculture minister, overseeing a widely publicised attempt to curb soaring rice prices.<\/p>\n
In his only other cabinet post, as environment minister, Mr Koizumi called for Japan to get rid of nuclear reactors in 2019.<\/p>\n
He faced ridicule that year for remarks that climate policy needed to be “cool” and “sexy”.<\/p>\n
Yoshimasa Hayashi, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary since December 2023 is another potential candidate.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Yoshimasa Hayashi has served as Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary since December 2023. (Reuters: Takashi Aoyama)<\/p>\n
Mr Hayashi has held a variety of portfolios, including defence, foreign, and agriculture minister, often being tapped as a pinch-hitter following an incumbent’s resignation.<\/p>\n
A fluent English speaker, he worked for trading house Mitsui & Co, studied at the Harvard Kennedy School, and was a staffer for US Representative Stephen Neal and Senator William Roth Jr.<\/p>\n
He has repeatedly called for respecting the BOJ’s independence on monetary policy.<\/p>\n
The new LDP leader may not become prime minister\u00a0<\/p>\n
Since the party does not have a majority in either house, it is not guaranteed that the LDP president will become prime minister.<\/p>\n
In Japan, the prime minister is chosen by parliament, not automatically by the ruling party.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Attention now turns to who will next steer the world’s fourth-largest economy. (Reuters: Kyodo)<\/p>\n
The more powerful lower house votes first, and lawmakers can nominate anyone from its ranks, not just party leaders.<\/p>\n
To win, a candidate must secure a simple majority.<\/p>\n
The upper house then votes as well, but if the two chambers disagree, the lower house\u2019s choice prevails.<\/p>\n
This happened in 2008 when the lower house chose the LDP candidate and the upper house picked an opposition candidate.<\/p>\n
Political uncertainty is impacting the economy<\/p>\n
Concern over political uncertainty led to a sell-off in the yen and Japanese government bonds last week, with the yield on the 30-year bond hitting a record high on Wednesday.<\/p>\n