It was the basketball great Kobe Bryant who best summed up the precarious status of the dead cert. His multi-talented LA Lakers team came into the 2004 NBA finals as clear favourites to beat the less fashionable Detroit Pistons only to lose 4-1 in the series. \u201cTalent doesn\u2019t get it done, you have to be able to execute,\u201d reflected Bryant. \u201cWhen you have talent AND you execute, that\u2019s when you win.\u201d<\/p>\n
In other words there is no such thing in sport as an absolute certainty, no matter how good you are. Pretty much everyone is assuming England\u2019s women will prevail at the current Rugby World Cup on the basis they have been unbeatable for the last few years. A record-equalling 30 wins on the trot, however, does not automatically guarantee fulfilment over the next three weekends. The knockout stages have arrived and, to a great extent, the tournament starts here.<\/p>\n
That is not to say the Red Roses have been unchallenged against the United States<\/a>, Samoa<\/a> and Australia<\/a> in their pool, merely that the stakes are about to rise significantly. There is a reason why England, with all their resources and talent, have not hoisted the women\u2019s World Cup for 11 years and it is not all down to the opposition. At some stage they are going to have to front up against the toughest opponents of the lot: themselves.<\/p>\n At which point all the Barbie hats and officially-licensed Spice Girls apparel in the world will be only so much help and the soundtrack to Quentin Tarantino\u2019s 1997 movie Jackie Brown will spring to mind. \u201cYou don\u2019t know what you\u2019ll do until you\u2019re put under pressure,\u201d sang the late Bobby Womack. \u201c\u2019Cross 110th Street is a hell of a tester.\u201d So is falling behind in a sudden-death World Cup game when anything less than victory is sufficient.<\/p>\n It remains the biggest challenge facing the Red Roses head coach John Mitchell and always has been. This time around England are blessed with some outstanding talent, significant depth, enviable financial backing and, last but not least, home advantage. None of it will count if fingers stiffen with nerves, knees turn to jelly and the team on the other side of the halfway line scent even the tiniest hint of panic.<\/p>\n Could it happen to Mitchell\u2019s England? Surely not this week. The last time they played their quarter-final opponents Scotland in April the result was 59-7 to the Red Roses<\/a>. But thereafter they will be up against sides who will present stiffer tests. And while the scars of past knockout disappointments will help to some degree there is no avoiding the existence of a few jangling skeletons.<\/p>\n Take the 2017 World Cup in Ireland where they averaged almost 49 points per game in the group stages, breezed through the semi-final 20-3 against France<\/a> and then saw their hopes and dreams disappear with a 41-32 final loss to New Zealand<\/a>. Or the last edition in New Zealand three years ago when, again, England splashed their way to a comfortable 41-5 win in a wet quarter-final against Australia<\/a> only to stutter to a 26-19 win over Canada<\/a> in the semis and succumb 34-31 to the Black Ferns<\/a> in the last seconds of the final.<\/p>\n That shattering loss, incidentally, was the first time in 31 games they had been beaten, precisely the record Mitchell\u2019s team are looking to surpass this weekend. Since then, a little like a reconditioned engine, every area of their game has been stripped down, re-examined and stress tested to try to ensure a happier ending this time.<\/p>\n What no-one can quite legislate for is the constantly changing tournament landscape. There is no hiding from the fact that New Zealand looked ominous in despatching Ireland 40-0<\/a> at the weekend, prompting high praise \u2013 \u201cThey played some incredible rugby\u201d \u2013 from the Irish co-captain Sam Monaghan. Could it be the Black Ferns are timing their run perfectly? As their head coach Allan Bunting conceded: \u201cThere\u2019s no point hitting your straps too early.\u201d<\/p>\n Canada are another team likely to grow stronger the longer they are together. And all the while the lonely frontrunners just have to hope and pray they have enough left for the final sprint. Occasionally even the best can be reeled in. Take the 2008 NFL Superbowl<\/a> when the New England Patriots, having won all 16 of their regular season games including 12 by double digits, were floored by the unfancied New York Giants? As the Patriots\u2019 devastated quarterback Tom Brady put it: \u201cIt was a month before I really felt back to myself. It was a nightmare.\u201d<\/p>\n It would have been exactly the same for England\u2019s rugby men in 2003<\/a> had they failed to nail down the holy grail that they universally expected to claim. Lost in the white-shirted euphoria was the sobering reality that a stubborn Australian side were still level at the end of normal time and that, form-wise, a great team had peaked earlier in the year.<\/p>\n So, no pressure on this admirable England side as the knockout dance starts. On the face of it the next three weekends could be the high point of their players\u2019 lives. Full stadiums, great expectations, potential once-in-a-lifetime rewards. But, equally, the sporting graveyard is full of sure things who, for varying reasons, could not ultimately deliver. As Mitchell and co are well aware it\u2019s never over until the Spice Girl sings.<\/p>\n Full circle<\/p>\n If you are a serious start-up business it\u2019s vital to ensure you hit the ground running. What conclusion should we collectively draw, then, from the story by our Guardian colleague Matt Hughes that the proposed R360 breakaway league has withdrawn its application for official sanction<\/a> from World Rugby until at least next June, effectively delaying its scheduled launch.<\/p>\n In theory the promise was to launch the rebel league next September but that timescale now looks fanciful with the governing body needing to be satisfied, among other things, about requirements for player welfare, medical provision, respecting the existing calendar and anti-doping compliance.<\/p>\n The R360 dream \u2013 some would say fantasy \u2013 is for a 12-team global franchise competition along the lines of Formula One, with eight match weekends each year in cities such as London, Barcelona, Tokyo, Dubai, Cape Town, Boston and Miami. It is understood that during informal recent discussions R360 was unable to answer multiple questions raised by World Rugby and, accordingly, have deferred lodging their application. Given 2027 is a World Cup year that means the new venture will realistically struggle to be up and running before 2028 \u2013 at the earliest. Good luck maintaining the breathless promotional hype until then.<\/p>\n Memory laneThe victorious USA team after the World Cup final in 1991. Photograph: Stu Forster\/Hulton Archive<\/p>\n The record crowd figures and burgeoning interest in the Women\u2019s Rugby World Cup is in stark contrast to its humble beginnings in 1991. The tournament, hosted by Wales, did not have official status, no International Rugby Board sanction, no live TV and even no guarantees it would go ahead. The players turned up anyway, competed for a \u00a3500 trophy and made history in a tournament that would get retrospective recognition. Three thousand spectators were at the final in Cardiff to witness the USA beat England 19-6 via a spirited second-half comeback.<\/p>\n One to watch<\/p>\n No question about the men\u2019s game of the upcoming weekend. Having lost the first Test at Eden Park<\/a>, South Africa will be desperate to avoid a second consecutive defeat to the All Blacks in Saturday\u2019s rematch in Wellington. It will not be easy with Rassie Erasmus having made seven changes to his starting XV, among them a first cap for the 22-year-old Ethan Hooker on the wing. If last weekend\u2019s fiercely-contested Rugby Championship games \u2013 including Australia\u2019s last-gasp win over Argentina<\/a> \u2013 suggested anything it is that competition at the top table is intensifying and that the world champion Springboks are not yet back to their ruthless best.<\/p>\n Still want more?<\/p>\n Andy Bull on how the added pressure England faced from Australia<\/a> was a necessary test they should relish and benefit from.<\/p>\n The USA may have been knocked out of the World Cup but their youthful squad offers plenty to be optimistic about, writes Martin Pengelly<\/a>.<\/p>\n The proposed R360 breakaway league has delayed its application for World Rugby approval until at least next June, reports Matt Hughes<\/a>.<\/p>\n And World Rugby has urged men\u2019s rugby to learn from the women\u2019s game<\/a> on improving fan engagement.<\/p>\n Subscribe<\/p>\n To subscribe to the Breakdown, just visit this page<\/a> and follow the instructions.<\/p>\n