{"id":135792,"date":"2025-09-11T18:07:09","date_gmt":"2025-09-11T18:07:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/135792\/"},"modified":"2025-09-11T18:07:09","modified_gmt":"2025-09-11T18:07:09","slug":"inflation-and-unemployment-are-soaring-the-fed-is-now-trapped-ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf-nasdaqtlt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/135792\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflation And Unemployment Are Soaring\u2013The Fed Is Now Trapped – iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Thursday’s economic releases revealed an unusual mix of rising prices and a spike in jobless claims \u2014 a toxic cocktail that thrusts the U.S. economy into a stagflationary environment and places the Federal Reserve in one of the toughest positions a central bank can face.<\/a><\/p>\n

In August 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% from a year earlier, matching expectations but marking the highest level since January.<\/p>\n

On a monthly basis, inflation accelerated to 0.4% from July’s 0.2%, overshooting forecasts for a 0.3% increase. Excluding volatile food and energy categories, core CPI held steady at 3.1% year-over-year \u2014 exactly in line with expectations but still uncomfortably above the Fed’s 2% goal. Core prices rose 0.3% month-over-month.<\/p>\n

Shelter costs were the largest contributor, climbing 0.4% in August. Food prices rose 0.5% overall, driven by a 0.6% increase in groceries and a 0.3% gain in dining out. Energy prices advanced 0.7%, led by a 1.9% jump in gasoline.<\/p>\n

Jobless Claims Jump to Highest Since 2021<\/p>\n

Labor market signals are flashing red. After August’s payroll report showed near-stagnant job creation and unemployment rising to 4.3%, the Department of Labor’s weekly claims confirmed the cooling trend.<\/p>\n

For the week ending Sept. 6, initial jobless claims surged from 236,000 to 263,000, not only far above estimates of 235,000 but also the highest reading since October 2021. <\/p>\n

Continuing claims \u2014 a measure of people remaining on benefits for more than a month \u2014 held steady at 1.94 million, just below the forecast of 1.95 million.<\/p>\n

Fed Caught Between Inflation and Employment<\/p>\n

The Fed now faces an exceptionally delicate balancing act, as its dual mandate \u2014 price stability and maximum employment \u2014 is being pulled in opposite directions.<\/p>\n

Inflation remains too high, typically requiring tighter policy. Yet a weakening labor market points toward the need for interest rate cuts.<\/p>\n

The central bank is all but certain to deliver a 25-basis-point reduction next week, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%\u20134.25%. <\/p>\n

What happens after that, however, remains uncertain, hinging on the trajectory of inflation and jobs data.<\/p>\n

Wall Street Retreats From Record Highs<\/p>\n

U.S. stocks pulled back from Wednesday’s record highs following the economic releases, with futures pointing lower in premarket trading.<\/p>\n

Futures on the S&P 500 traded flat at 6,542 points. Unchanged were also the Dow Jones and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100. <\/p>\n

The dollar held steady, while Treasury yields declined. The benchmark 10-year note touched 4.0%, its lowest level since April 7, 2025.<\/p>\n

The popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT is up nearly 4% month-to-date, on track for its best month since February. <\/p>\n

Read Next:<\/p>\n

Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Thursday’s economic releases revealed an unusual mix of rising prices and a spike in jobless claims \u2014 a…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":135793,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,99,93560,81399,93562,93561,93558,93559,38214,8330,164,8329,93563,38221],"class_list":{"0":"post-135792","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-au","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-business","11":"tag-category-econ-s","12":"tag-category-economics","13":"tag-category-etfs","14":"tag-category-federal-reserve","15":"tag-category-macro-economic-events","16":"tag-category-specialty-etfs","17":"tag-category-top-stories","18":"tag-cms-wordpress","19":"tag-economy","20":"tag-pageisbzpro-bz","21":"tag-symbol-tlt","22":"tag-tag-stories-that-matter"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135792","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=135792"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135792\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/135793"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=135792"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=135792"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=135792"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}