![\"Canelo](\"https:\/\/platform.mmafighting.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/109\/chorus\/uploads\/chorus_asset\/file\/25979297\/2212944825.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0.0094840667678255,0,99.981031866464,100\")
<\/a><\/p>\nPhoto by Richard Pelham\/Getty Images<\/p>\n
Christ: Terence Crawford\u2019s never fought at 168, and it\u2019s a lot to ask of someone whose first world titles came at 135. As much as you can scout a fight with this many unknowns, you can predict Crawford to have a significant advantage in mobility and speed moving around the ring. Those areas have increasingly become weaknesses for Canelo Alvarez. If Crawford can land clean, and keep the range he wants, Canelo could struggle, as Alvarez just doesn\u2019t cut off the ring the way he did when younger. This could also frustrate Canelo, and a frustrated fighter makes mistakes.<\/p>\n
These are both, obviously, high-level, experienced, and calculated professional boxers. But game plans on both sides have to be adjusted from the norm. Canelo has to be better at cutting off the ring than we saw in his last fight, and he can\u2019t let Crawford get into a comfortable groove, or, round by round, the fight will get away from him. And Crawford has to avoid getting into the phone booth with Alvarez at all costs. He can\u2019t expect to be the physically stronger man, and even if he can tie up before Canelo starts unleashing hell to the body, getting into scrappy tussles could sap Crawford\u2019s stamina and leave him increasingly vulnerable as the fight wears on.<\/p>\n
Crawford has proven himself so good, for so long, that I can\u2019t write him off, even with Canelo holding some obvious advantages. The fight has genuine intrigue; this is no circus matchup, but what I fear more than a blowout is a check-casher where neither guy\u2019s heart is totally in it, resulting in a ho-hum fight where risk is eschewed from an early stage, and everyone is just happy to go 12 rounds that resemble glorified sparring. I\u2019m picking a winner with the idea that it won\u2019t be like that, but that\u2019s a far bigger concern (and likelihood) than Canelo thrashing Crawford in short order.<\/p>\n
Official prediction: Canelo by split decision<\/p>\n
Lee: Hey, Bud, remember how good you were in the Errol Spence Jr. fight? That, times 20, please.<\/p>\n
Skill-wise, it\u2019s difficult to separate Canelo and Crawford, but Crawford is a classic underdog in this scenario just based on him being the man going up. Canelo can afford to make a few mistakes here and there, trusting that his size and power will allow him to bully Crawford when the time calls for it. Crawford has to be close to flawless, especially if this goes to the judges, because at that point it\u2019s anybody\u2019s guess how they\u2019ll score it.<\/p>\n
I confess, I\u2019m enamored by Crawford\u2019s technical mastery, adaptability, and tricky combinations, all of which he\u2019ll need to topple Canelo. This is all working under the assumption that he\u2019s getting a top-tier\u2014if not the best\u2014version of Canelo that we can expect at this stage of the Mexican star\u2019s career. As uninspired as Canelo is at times, he still has a ton of power and will gladly trade punches with Crawford if the smaller man stays in close for too long.<\/p>\n
On this day, I think Canelo\u2019s poor run of form gets the best of him, and he leaves one opening too many, allowing Crawford to convincingly take rounds and establish himself as the true face of boxing in North America.<\/p>\n
Official prediction: Crawford by unanimous decision<\/p>\n