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For each player, we have categorised the relevant games for them into two categories: bank the three, and games that could go either way.<\/p>\n
For a game to fit under the banner of \u2018bank the three\u2019, the player has performed significantly better than any other that game. It\u2019s not an easy criteria to meet, but in the case they do, we\u2019ll be very surprised if they don\u2019t poll maximum votes for the match in question.<\/p>\n
As for any clash that falls under the \u2018games that could go either way\u2019 umbrella, it\u2019s self-explanatory \u2014 it could go either way. In some cases, a player will poll a deserved three votes for these matches. In other instances however, they may not poll at all; perhaps due to their team losing, or the umpires taking a liking for other teammates who played just as well, if not better.<\/p>\n
*Betting odds correct as of 4pm September 20<\/p>\n
AFL’s State of Orign to return | 00:32<\/p>\n
NICK DAICOS<\/p>\n
Odds: $2.50<\/p>\n
Bank the three<\/p>\n
Round 2 W vs Western Bulldogs (39 disposals \u2014 14 contested, 11 score involvements, nine clearances, eight inside 50s, seven marks)<\/p>\n
Round 6 W vs Brisbane (38 disposals, 12 score involvements, eight clearances, 645 metres gained, two goal assists, one goal)<\/p>\n
Round 17 W vs Carlton (36 disposals \u2014 13 contested, 13 score involvements, seven clearances, seven marks, 615 metres gained, one goal assist, one goal)<\/p>\n
Round 20 W vs Richmond (42 disposals, 14 score involvements, 910 metres gained, eight inside 50s, three goals, one goal assist)<\/p>\n
Games that could go either way<\/p>\n
Round 1 W vs Port Adelaide (26 disposals, nine inside 50s, eight score involvements, two goal assists)<\/p>\n
Round 5 W vs Sydney (34 disposals \u2014 15 contested, nine clearances, nine tackles, one goal assist)<\/p>\n
Round 7 W vs Essendon (31 disposals \u2014 14 contested, 11 clearances, nine inside 50s, nine score involvements, 619 metres gained, two goal assists, one goal)<\/p>\n
Round 10 W vs Adelaide (28 disposals, seven clearances, six inside 50s)<\/p>\n
Round 11 W vs North Melbourne (38 disposals,12 inside 50s, 12 score involvements, 736 metres gained, two goal assists)<\/p>\n
Round 12 W vs Hawthorn (32 disposals, 10 score involvements, seven marks, one goal assist, one goal)<\/p>\n
Round 15 W vs St Kilda (30 disposals \u2014 14 contested, nine intercepts, nine inside 50s, two goal assists, one goal)<\/p>\n
Round 16 W vs West Coast (34 disposals, 10 marks, nine inside 50s, nine score involvements, seven clearances, 707 metres gained, one goal)<\/p>\n
Round 19 L vs Fremantle (43 disposals \u2014 14 contested, 778 metres gained, eight clearances, eight score involvements, seven tackles, seven inside 50s, one goal)<\/p>\n
Round 23 L vs Adelaide (29 disposals \u2014 14 contested, eight clearances, eight inside 50s, 559 metres gained, one goal)<\/p>\n
Round 24 W vs Melbourne (27 disposals \u2014 12 contested, six inside 50s, six marks)<\/p>\n
Verdict<\/p>\n
As the odds suggest, this year\u2019s number one favourite to take home \u2018Charlie\u2019. Despite amassing a whopping 38 votes \u2014 a number never seen before last season \u2014 Daicos was usurped by Patrick Cripps and his eye-watering 45-vote tally. One year on, Daicos should have several three-vote games pocketed throughout the count, and a handful more where he could bank the maximum tally. The biggest match of interest for him could well revolve around Collingwood\u2019s one-point loss to Fremantle in Round 19, where his absurd stat line will be going toe-to-toe with Caleb Serong\u2019s monster day out and a six-goal haul from Patrick Voss. Two months prior, his 38-touch game against North Melbourne could also be crucial, with Jamie Elliott and Ned Long. His top-four finish in the AFL Coaches Association votes proves he\u2019ll be right up there, and the Pies will have plenty of wins that will work in his favour with any 50\/50 calls against opposition players. Crucially in Daicos\u2019 favour, there\u2019s almost no one who will nab votes off him consistently… it\u2019s his medal to lose, isn\u2019t it?<\/p>\n
Nick Daicos of the Magpies celebrates a goal during the 2025 AFL Round 7 match between the Collingwood Magpies and the Essendon Bombers at the MCG on April 25, 2025 (Photo by Michael Willson via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
BAILEY SMITH<\/p>\n
Odds: $4.75<\/p>\n
Bank the three<\/p>\n
Round 1 W vs Fremantle (32 disposals \u2014 15 contested, 12 score involvements, seven clearances, 693 metres gained, two goal assists, one goal)<\/p>\n
Round 12 W vs West Coast (38 disposals, 834 metres gained, eight score involvements, eight inside 50s, seven marks, one goal)<\/p>\n
Games that could go either way<\/p>\n
Round 4 W vs Melbourne (28 disposals, eight tackles \u2014 three inside 50, 569 metres gained)<\/p>\n
Round 5 W vs Adelaide (35 disposals \u2014 17 contested, nine score involvements, 643 metres gained, six clearances, six inside 50s, one goal)<\/p>\n
Round 6 W vs Hawthorn (28 disposals, 630 metres gained, one goal assist)<\/p>\n
Round 8 W vs Collingwood (34 disposals, 715 metres gained, six inside 50s, one goal)<\/p>\n
Round 10 W vs Port Adelaide (30 disposals, 10 score involvements, nine inside 50s, eight marks, seven clearances, two goal assists)<\/p>\n
Round 11 W vs Western Bulldogs (33 disposals \u2014 12 contested, 810 metres gained, seven tackles, seven inside 50s, one goal assist)<\/p>\n
Round 14 W vs Essendon (41 disposals, nine score involvements, nine inside 50s, 765 metres gained, seven marks, two goal assists)<\/p>\n
Round 20 W vs North Melbourne (43 disposals \u2014 23 contested, 13 clearances, eight inside 50s, 655 metres gained, one goal)<\/p>\n
Round 22 W vs Essendon (31 disposals, nine clearances, eight score involvements, 738 metres gained, three goal assists)<\/p>\n
Round 23 W vs Sydney (30 disposals \u2014 14 contested, nine score involvements, seven inside 50s)<\/p>\n
Round 24 W vs Richmond (34 disposals, 10 score involvements, 10 inside 50s, seven clearances, two goal assists)<\/p>\n
Verdict<\/p>\n
What a whirlwind season Geelong\u2019s superstar recruit has had. The 24-year-old midfielder had easily his best year at AFL level, and the markets suggest he\u2019ll be Nick Daicos\u2019 biggest test. Unfortunately for Smith though, his biggest issue come Monday night will be his absence in Round 2, 13 and 17. Of the five genuine favourites, he is the only one to miss a match this season \u2014 let alone three. There\u2019s no doubting that he\u2019s the most eye-catching of any player on this list, and should gain plenty of attention from umpires. Crazily, he won\u2019t poll three votes in Round 20 despite a 43-disposal game with 23 contested possessions and a goal; no thanks to a Jeremy Cameron 11-goal haul against North Melbourne. Cameron and Max Holmes loom as the two teammates who are set to steal the most votes off him, but he should be right around the mark throughout the night. He can win it, but those three games and the super seasons from Cameron and Holmes will make it very tough.<\/p>\n
Bailey Smith of the Cats celebrates during the 2025 AFL Round 7 match between the Carlton Blues and the Geelong Cats at the MCG on April 27, 2025 (Photo by Michael Willson via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
JORDAN DAWSON<\/p>\n
Odds: $6<\/p>\n
Bank the three<\/p>\n
Round 1 W vs St Kilda (27 disposals, nine marks, 648 metres gained, six inside 50s, two goals, one goal assist)<\/p>\n
Round 6 W vs GWS (27 disposals \u2014 12 contested, nine inside 50s, eight tackles, 620 metres gained)<\/p>\n
Round 11 W vs West Coast (27 disposals \u2014 17 contested, 11 inside 50s, 10 score involvements, nine tackles, eight clearances, two goal assists, two goals)<\/p>\n
Round 22 W vs West Coast (26 disposals, 14 tackles, 11 inside 50s, 638 metres gained, one goal)<\/p>\n
Games that could go either way<\/p>\n
Round 2 W vs Essendon (33 disposals, 11 inside 50s, eight marks, 775 metres gained, one goal assist)<\/p>\n
Round 4 L vs Gold Coast (31 disposals, eight inside 50s, six clearances, one goal assist)<\/p>\n
Round 8 W vs Carlton (22 disposals, nine score involvements, eight tackles, seven marks \u2014 three contested, three goals)<\/p>\n
Round 10 L vs Collingwood (27 disposals, nine marks, eight tackles, one goal assist, one goal)<\/p>\n
Round 13 W vs Brisbane (18 disposals \u2014 12 contested, 11 tackles, four contested marks, one goal)<\/p>\n
Round 16 W vs Richmond (26 disposals, 12 score involvements, eight inside 50s, seven clearances, two goal assists)<\/p>\n
Round 18 W vs Western Bulldogs (27 disposals \u2014 13 contested, 12 score involvements, eight tackles, two goal assists, two goals)<\/p>\n
Round 21 W vs Hawthorn (21 disposals, 12 tackles, two goals, one goal assist)<\/p>\n
Verdict<\/p>\n
Perhaps the most low-disposal, high-impact player among the favourites. The Adelaide captain didn\u2019t have 30 or more disposals after Round 4, but his punish with ball in hand, contested marking and ability to hit the scoreboard at crucial times will work well in his favour. He started the season with a bang against St Kilda and Essendon in Rounds 1 and 2, and should claim maximum votes against GWS in Round 6 in a slugfest. A second purple patch comes through the middle of the year, with a clutch goal in Round 13 maybe enough to see him jag a single vote against Brisbane. A single vote should also come in Round 16 against Richmond, before a three-vote game in Round 22. Ultimately, Dawson probably doesn\u2019t poll in enough games to claim a maiden Brownlow Medal, but umpires normally love a player who can impact on both the inside and outside.<\/p>\n
Riley Thilthorpe and Izak Rankine will be the two players at West Lakes who will put a ceiling on their captain\u2019s vote-getting, and perhaps Jake Soligo too in the early parts of the season. He\u2019s probably the unlikeliest of the five to win it, but you\u2019ve just got to be in it to win it!<\/p>\n
Jordan Dawson of the Crows celebrates a goal during the 2025 AFL Round 13 match between the Adelaide Crows and the Brisbane Lions at Adelaide Oval on June 6, 2025 (Photo by James Elsby via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
NOAH ANDERSON<\/p>\n
Odds: $6<\/p>\n
Bank the three<\/p>\n
Round 10 W vs Hawthorn (35 disposals \u2014 16 contested, 12 clearances, 10 inside 50s, 865 metres gained, three goal assists, one goal)<\/p>\n
Round 15 L vs GWS (42 disposals \u2014 15 contested, 15 score involvements, seven clearances, 651 metres gained, two goals)<\/p>\n
Round 21 W vs Richmond (38 disposals \u2014 15 contested, 12 score involvements, nine inside 50s, eight clearances, three goal assists)<\/p>\n
Round 24 vs Essendon (34 disposals \u2014 18 contested, 12 clearances \u2014 eight centre, 634 metres gained, three goals, one goal assist)<\/p>\n
Games that could go either way<\/p>\n
Round 1 W vs West Coast (36 disposals \u2014 14 contested, nine clearances, nine inside 50s, 723 metres gained, three goal assists)<\/p>\n
Round 3 W vs Melbourne (35 disposals \u2014 12 contested, 10 score involvements, one goal)<\/p>\n
Round 5 W vs North Melbourne (27 disposals, 12 score involvements, seven inside 50s, two goal assists)<\/p>\n
Round 6 L vs Richmond (32 disposals, 10 inside 50s, nine clearances, 802 metres gained, two goal assists)<\/p>\n
Round 9 W vs Western Bulldogs (28 disposals \u2014 14 contested, seven clearances, one goal assist)<\/p>\n
Round 11 W vs St Kilda (36 disposals \u2014 14 contested, 11 clearances, 719 metres gained, seven inside 50s)<\/p>\n
Round 12 L vs Fremantle (39 disposals \u2014 22 contested, 12 clearances, eight score involvements, seven inside 50s)<\/p>\n
Round 17 W vs Essendon (39 disposals, eight score involvements, eight marks, seven tackles, two goals)<\/p>\n
Round 18 W vs Collingwood (32 disposals \u2014 17 contested, eight clearances, one goal)<\/p>\n
Round 20 W vs Brisbane (33 disposals, nine score involvements, two goal assists, one goal)<\/p>\n
Round 23 L vs GWS (32 disposals, eight clearances, 728 metres gained, seven inside 50s, one goal assist)<\/p>\n
Verdict<\/p>\n
Noah Anderson\u2019s best mate in Matt Rowell could well be his biggest enemy come Brownlow night \u2014 and the exact same thing could be said vice-versa. The stealing of votes off each other begins straight away, with either one of the duo\u2019s mammoth game against West Coast enough to claim the maximum tally. While Gold Coast took home four points against the Western Bulldogs in Round 9, their opponents dominated the stats sheet which makes it a hard read as to how well Anderson will poll. Only Naisah Wangannen-Milera in a losing side stands in the way of three votes in Round 11, but it\u2019s still not a complete guarantee. What you can lock in though for the Suns captain, is three votes a number of times in the second half of the season \u2014 including in a losing cause against GWS in Round 15. And to cap off his season, surely he gets the three votes in the final match of the home-and-away season against Essendon. The captain\u2019s season has been outstanding, but there\u2019s no doubt Rowell almost certainly stands in the way of him and the coveted award.<\/p>\n
Noah Anderson of the Suns celebrates a goal during the 2025 AFL Round 18 match between the Gold Coast Suns and the Collingwood Magpies at People First Stadium on July 11, 2025 (Photo by Russell Freeman via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n
MATT ROWELL<\/p>\n
Odds: $13<\/p>\n
Bank the three<\/p>\n
Round 3 W vs Melbourne (36 disposals \u2014 19 contested, 13 clearances \u2014nine centre, nine score involvements, eight inside 50s, seven tackles, two goal assists)<\/p>\n
Round 18 W vs Collingwood (32 disposals \u2014 18 contested, 13 tackles, 12 clearances, nine inside 50s, two goals)<\/p>\n
Round 20 W vs Brisbane (37 disposals \u2014 23 contested, 15 clearances, 12 tackles, 10 score involvements, 730 metres gained, seven inside 50s, one goal assist)<\/p>\n
Round 22 W vs Carlton (30 disposals \u2014 16 contested, 13 score involvements, nine clearances, eight tackles, eight inside 50s, two goal assists)<\/p>\n
Games that could go either way<\/p>\n
Round 1 W vs West Coast (30 disposals \u2014 15 contested, 10 clearances, eight score involvements, eight tackles)<\/p>\n
Round 5 W vs North Melbourne (26 disposals \u2014 15 contested, 11 clearances \u2014 eight centre, 14 score involvements, eight inside 50s, one goal assists, one goal)<\/p>\n
Round 6 L vs Richmond (29 disposals \u2014 12 contested, seven clearances, one goal assist)<\/p>\n
Round 10 W vs Hawthorn (29 disposals \u2014 14 contested, nine clearances, nine tackles, one goal assist)<\/p>\n
Round 11 W vs St Kilda (24 disposals, 15 tackles)<\/p>\n
Round 13 L vs Geelong (24 disposals \u2014 12 contested, 11 tackles, 10 clearances, one goal)<\/p>\n
Round 16 W vs Melbourne (24 disposals \u2014 19 contested, 12 clearances, 11 tackles, nine score involvements, seven inside 50s, one goal assist)<\/p>\n
Round 19 L vs Adelaide (30 disposals \u2014 16 contested, 12 clearances, nine tackles, seven inside 50s)<\/p>\n
Round 21 W vs Richmond (27 disposals \u2014 14 contested, 12 clearances, 12 score involvements)<\/p>\n
Round 24 vs Essendon (31 disposals \u2014 15 contested, 11 score involvements, eight tackles, two goals, one goal assist)<\/p>\n
Verdict<\/p>\n
The inside bull has transformed his game in 2025, adding significant impact outside of contest to his repertoire. Both he and captain Noah Anderson put up some absurd stat lines throughout the year, and if the umpires narrow in on impact at clearance, Rowell will be right up there on Monday night. Only GWS\u2019 Tom Green averages more clearances a game this season than Rowell, and only Fremantle\u2019s Caleb Serong is more dominant at centre clearance. The 24-year-old started his season slightly slower than Anderson, but boy does he come strong. Three out of his last seven games should see him pick up maximum votes, and he\u2019s right in the frame to poll in seven of his last 10. Rowell was Gold Coast\u2019s best in a Round 16 win against Melbourne, but Jake Melksham\u2019s 5.6 in front of goal could pip him. Whether or not he polls in their Round 19 thumping loss to Adelaide will also be of intrigue. As the odds suggest, the dark horse of the most favoured quintet, but there\u2019s no shortage of games he\u2019s every chance to poll in.<\/p>\n
Matt Rowell of the Suns celebrates victory during the 2025 AFL Round 24 match between the Gold Coast Suns and the Essendon Bombers at People First Stadium on August 27, 2025 (Photo by Matt Roberts via Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Barring a shock surge from an ultra-dark horse, the 2025 Brownlow Medal is shaping as a five-man race…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":157333,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[560],"tags":[104734,104728,9126,638,104731,12093,64,63,689,55,639,42255,104729,3237,3239,104071,104725,10133,11231,3471,104727,104736,13659,2105,14387,2485,9130,104722,12092,12160,36878,12141,3514,104726,26596,12157,12137,104730,104721,7198,27747,104737,25844,677,72972,7800,12156,6082,104733,701,6282,1820,104724,1124,85,1122,3424,104735,104738,104732,660,16710,698,104723],"class_list":["post-157332","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-afl","tag-absurd-stat","tag-absurd-stat-lines","tag-adelaide-crows","tag-afl","tag-afl-coaches-association","tag-another-fine-day","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-australia-and-new-zealand","tag-australian-football-league","tag-australianfootballleague","tag-bailey-smith","tag-betting-odds","tag-brisbane-lions","tag-carlton-blues","tag-centre-clearance","tag-clutch-goal","tag-collingwood-magpies","tag-essendon-bombers","tag-final-match","tag-final-result","tag-five-man-race","tag-geelong-cats","tag-getty-images-inc","tag-goal-assists","tag-gold-coast","tag-gold-coast-suns","tag-impact-outside","tag-jake-melksham","tag-jake-soligo","tag-jamie-elliott","tag-jeremy-cameron","tag-jordan-dawson","tag-mammoth-game","tag-matt-roberts","tag-matt-rowell","tag-max-holmes","tag-maximum-tally","tag-maximum-votes","tag-michael-willson","tag-monster-day","tag-mystery-games","tag-noah-anderson","tag-oceania","tag-opposition-players","tag-patrick-cripps","tag-patrick-voss","tag-port-adelaide","tag-purple-patch","tag-queensland","tag-russell-freeman","tag-score-involvements","tag-single-vote","tag-south-australia","tag-sports","tag-st-kilda","tag-stats-sheet","tag-superstar-recruit","tag-team-losing","tag-three-vote-games","tag-victoria","tag-west-lakes","tag-western-bulldogs","tag-whirlwind-season"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157332","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=157332"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157332\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/157333"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=157332"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=157332"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=157332"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}