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A new analysis by researchers at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)<\/a> and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL)<\/a> projects that quantum computers may shift from a theoretical promise to a practical tool for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)<\/a> scientific workloads within the next decade. The study, posted on arXiv<\/a>, finds that the resources required to solve key scientific problems on quantum machines have dropped, while hardware capabilities from ten quantum computing companies are projected to rise.<\/p>\n The report examined NERSC\u2019s scientific workload, finding that more than half of current compute cycles are consumed by problems in materials science, quantum chemistry, and high-energy physics, domains where quantum computers could be applied. According to the researchers, materials science problems appear closest to reaching \u201cquantum advantage,\u201d while quantum chemistry is noted as a mature testbed. High-energy physics, however, remains the most demanding domain, requiring significant advances in error correction before quantum devices can compete.<\/p>\n The study proposes a new metric, Sustained Quantum System Performance (SQSP), to measure a system\u2019s practical throughput by capturing how many complete scientific workflows a system can run per year. The researchers reviewed public roadmaps from companies spanning superconducting, trapped-ion, and neutral-atom platforms and found projections of exponential scaling over the next decade. The analysis suggests that a convergence between hardware capabilities and scientific needs could occur within five to ten years.<\/p>\n The report notes that execution time will remain a limiting factor even if qubit counts grow as projected. It also cautions that vendor roadmaps are aspirational and some milestones remain unproven. The study\u2019s authors, including Daan Camps<\/a>, Ermal Rrapaj<\/a>, Katherine Klymko<\/a>, and Nicholas J. Wright<\/a>, emphasize that continued progress in algorithms and error-correction schemes, as well as tight coupling between HPC and quantum computers, will be necessary to unlock the full potential of quantum computing.<\/p>\n Read more about this collaboration in the HPCwire article here<\/a>, and find the paper on the Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.gov) website here<\/a>.<\/p>\n September 20, 2025<\/p>\n
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