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, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring<\/a>.<\/p>\nNote: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today’s MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news<\/a>.<\/p>\n Jump to: Pitching notes<\/a> | Hitting notes<\/a> | Betting tips<\/a> Pitchers to stream Sunday<\/p>\n Like most of the Cleveland Guardians<\/a>, Joey Cantillo<\/a> has excelled down the stretch. Over his last five outings, he recorded a 1.21 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He’s been a bit fortunate, but the right-hander doesn’t hurt himself with walks or homers, so if regression strikes, the landing should be soft. The Minnesota Twins<\/a> are trying to play spoiler, but Cantillo and the Guardians are favored in the finale of their four-game set at Target Field.<\/p>\n Emmet Sheehan<\/a> has been piling up strikeouts, racking up 45 batters over his prior 35\u2153 innings. He’s slated to take the hill when the Los Angeles Dodgers<\/a> host the San Francisco Giants<\/a>. Heading into Saturday’s action, the visitors sputtered to a 24-33 record after the break, falling out of wild card convention. The Dodgers are close to clinching the NL West, so expect them to play their regulars against the Giants, then perhaps rest them when the magic number is zero.<\/p>\n While it’s risky to trust a rookie making just his third major league start, especially on the road, Connelly Early<\/a> impressed the Boston Red Sox<\/a> enough to stay in the rotation down the stretch. Early faced the Athletics in both of his outings, fanning 18 with just one walk and no homers allowed over 10\u2153 innings. The Rays have struggled against southpaws all season, sporting the seventh highest strikeout rate and ninth lowest wOBA with a left-hander on the hill. <\/p>\n Pitchers to avoid Sunday<\/p>\n Michael King<\/a> has not been sharp since returning from the IL, surrendering 10 earned runs in only eight innings over two starts. The San Diego Padres<\/a> need him to return to form quickly but trusting him for a fantasy lineup is a risk, even facing the Chicago White Sox<\/a>. The matchup is on the road, so King isn’t protected by Petco Park. The White Sox offense has been sluggish all season, but King is vulnerable to the long ball and Rate Field embellished homers. <\/p>\n Today’s best matchups for pitchers<\/p>\n New York Mets<\/a> pitchers vs. Nationals hitters Texas Rangers<\/a> pitchers vs. Marlins hitters Miami Marlins<\/a> pitchers vs. Rangers hitters Today’s worst matchups for pitchers<\/p>\n San Francisco Giants<\/a> pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters Los Angeles Angels<\/a> pitchers vs. Rockies hitters Colorado Rockies<\/a> pitchers vs. Angels hitters Hitters to stream on SundayToday’s best matchups for hitters<\/p>\n Colorado Rockies batters vs. Angels pitchers Los Angeles Angels batters vs. Rockies pitchers Pittsburgh Pirates<\/a> LHB vs. Athletics pitchers Today’s worst matchups for hitters<\/p>\n Miami Marlins RHB vs. Rangers pitchers Washington Nationals<\/a> LHB vs. Mets pitchers Houston Astros<\/a> RHB vs. Mariners pitchers Betting tipsPostseason Baseball Challenge<\/p>\n Create MLB postseason brackets for FREE! $50K in prizes. Make Your Picks<\/a><\/p>\n Best\/worst pitcher\/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.<\/p>\n Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.<\/p>\n Today’s top HR prop bets<\/p>\n Heliot Ramos<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)<\/a> Matt Chapman<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+400)<\/a> Paul Goldschmidt<\/a> | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)<\/a> Today’s top pitcher prop bets<\/p>\n Casey Mize<\/a> | UNDER 4.5 K (-150)<\/a> Jameson Taillon<\/a> | UNDER 4.5 K (-125)<\/a> Cam Schlittler<\/a> | UNDER 6.5 K (-160)<\/a> Today’s top YRFI\/NRFI bets<\/p>\n Angels @ Rockies | YRFI (-160) Guardians @ Twins | NRFI (-105) Giants @ Dodgers | YRFI (-130)
Reliever depth chart<\/a> <\/p>\n
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.63 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.76 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: C | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.05 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.75 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Offense: A | Park: F | Umpire: B | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.47 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: B | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 5.28 ERA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: A+ | Bullpen: B | Park: A+ | Umpire: F | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .388 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: B | Bullpen: B | Park: A+ | Umpire: F | Framing: C | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .366 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: B | Bullpen: A+ | Park: C | Umpire: B | Framing: A | Temperature: B | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter would post a .348 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: D | Bullpen: C | Park: F | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .277 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: F | Bullpen: B | Park: F | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .277 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n
SP: F | Bullpen: B | Park: D | Umpire: D | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average hitter would post a .286 wOBA in this matchup.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/e543e3eb-517f-45ac-a7fc-4ac2463b43e6.jpeg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.21 EV
One reason to bet this: The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to be the fifth-highest (81 degrees) out of all games on today’s slate. This is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).<\/p>\n
Projection: 23% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.60 EV
One reason to bet this: Chapman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s ninth-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.<\/p>\n
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.35 EV
One reason to bet this: Goldschmidt has had bad variance on his side in 2025, when it comes to his home runs. His 11.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is deflated compared to his 16.3 expected HR\/600, based on my projections.<\/p>\n
Projection: 69% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.13 EV
One reason to bet this: Mize’s 2,246-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 25th percentile among all SPs.<\/p>\n
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.30 EV
One reason to bet this: Among all starters, Taillon’s fastball velocity of 91.7 mph grades out in the 22nd percentile this year.<\/p>\n
Projection: 68% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.81 EV
One reason to bet this: Given the 0.7 deviation between Schlittler’s 10.24 K\/9 and his 9.54 estimated true-talent K\/9 (via my projections), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league this year in terms of strikeouts. He should see worse results going forward.<\/p>\n
Projection: 66% chance of RUN with a $10.59 EV<\/p>\n
Projection: 53% chance of NO RUN with a $3.77 EV<\/p>\n
Projection: 58% chance of RUN with a $4.00 EV<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Sep 21, 2025, 07:52 AM ET Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":158740,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[558],"tags":[64,63,591,85],"class_list":["post-158739","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mlb","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-mlb","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/158739","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=158739"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/158739\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/158740"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=158739"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=158739"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=158739"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}