Five-horse race explained as every favourite\u2019s three-vote games predicted<\/a><\/p>\nADELAIDE CROWS<\/p>\n
Jordan Dawson (market suspended) isn\u2019t only the runaway favourite here, but he\u2019s also one of the overall favourites to take out the award \u2014 with multiple models predicting a top-three finish. Izak Rankine ($1.30 without Dawson) will take some votes off him, kicking two or more goals in eight of his 22 games as he also played a key midfield role for parts of the season. Spearhead forward Riley Thilthorpe ($3.00) will fight him for second place, having booted three or more goals on 12 occasions this season. <\/p>\n
BRISBANE LIONS<\/p>\n
Hugh McCluggage ($1.10), who won his maiden All-Australian blazer just weeks ago, is the short-priced favourite to poll the most votes for the Lions. The smooth-moving midfielder notched 30 or more disposals on seven occasions this season. Lachie Neale ($11.00) missed the final three games of the home-and-away season after battling a quad injury, but he\u2019ll still poll well in the games he did play. Will Ashcroft ($13.00) should challenge Neale for second-most club votes, having played every home-and-away game. <\/p>\n
Neale a Big chance to play in GF | 02:50<\/p>\n
CARLTON<\/p>\n
Contested beast George Hewett ($1.50) capped a career-best season this year and was especially noticeable in the first half of the campaign. He\u2019ll be hard to beat for most Blues votes, having collected 30 or more disposals on eight occasions this year, with five of those occurrences coming in Carlton wins. Patrick Cripps ($2.75) will certainly poll and likely take a few votes off of Hewett, but he\u2019ll be the only Blue to come close to Hewett. Sam Walsh ($17.00) is next in line but missed too much footy to have a chance here. <\/p>\n
COLLINGWOOD<\/p>\n
Nick Daicos (market susp.) is the overall favourite to win this year\u2019s Brownlow Medal, so it won\u2019t surprise that the market for most Pies votes excepts him. Brother Josh Daicos ($2.25 without Nick), who eclipsed 25 possessions on 17 occasions while playing a key role off half-back, is the favourite in his absence, but he\u2019ll receive stiff competition from evergreen veterans Steele Sidebottom ($2.75) and Jamie Elliott ($3.25). <\/p>\n
‘They would have beaten us anyway’ | 10:50<\/p>\n
ESSENDON<\/p>\n
No one at the Bombers will poll anywhere near as well as skipper Zach Merrett ($1.03), who eclipsed 30 disposals on seven occasions this year and was the clear standout in a side that was decimated by injury and lost its last 13 games of the season. Nic Martin ($10.00) would have been in with a chance if he hadn\u2019t got stuck on 16 games after rupturing his ACL. <\/p>\n
FREMANTLE<\/p>\n
Once again, it\u2019s fairly clear that Caleb Serong ($1.25) will poll the most Dockers votes, having won another All-Australian blazer and finishing fifth for coaches\u2019 votes. Midfield teammate Andy Brayshaw ($4.00) will challenge him for some votes, but this shouldn\u2019t be an overly close race. Serong notched 30 or more disposals seven times this season, flexing his contest muscles all year long as the Dockers stormed to September. <\/p>\n
Collingwood’s contract decisions | 02:03<\/p>\n
GEELONG CATS<\/p>\n
Another situation where there won\u2019t be much competition for most club votes, with star midfielder Bailey Smith ($1.05) continuing his awesome debut Geelong season after also earning his maiden All-Australian blazer. The hard-working ball-getter\u2019s approach to winning the footy won\u2019t have been lost on the umpires, having gathered 30 or more possessions on 13 occasions this season and ranking third for coaches\u2019 votes. Max Holmes ($10.00) has also had a stellar campaign, sitting ninth for coaches\u2019 votes, and will steal some votes off his dashing companion. <\/p>\n
GOLD COAST SUNS<\/p>\n
This is the intriguing one. Noah Anderson ($1.50) is the favourite to poll best among the Suns and is an overall candidate to win \u2018Charlie\u2019, but the question is around just how many votes Matt Rowell ($2.25) \u2014 who sat third in the competition for contested possessions per game \u2014 will steal off him come Monday night. Anderson and Rowell are one and two for coaches\u2019 votes this season, with both sure to have caught the full attention of the umpires with their ball-winning nous. Touk Miller ($101.00) will also poll a few votes, but this is a two-horse race in its truest form. <\/p>\n
‘That is a free EVERY DAY OF THE WEEK! | 00:45<\/p>\n
GWS GIANTS<\/p>\n
Tom Green ($1.30) is the favourite to claim the most votes at the Giants, leading the charge in the midfield all year long \u2014 winning 30 or more possessions 12 times this year and leading the competition for contested possessions per game. Finn Callaghan ($3.20) would\u2019ve been a good shout had he not missed a month amid an injury blip, while skipper Toby Greene ($26.00) will poll here and there for a couple of his matchwinning efforts. <\/p>\n
HAWTHORN<\/p>\n
With Will Day again impacted by injury this season, this is well and truly Jai Newcombe\u2019s ($1.20) spot. His prowess at the coalface won\u2019t have been lost on the umpiring fraternity. Dylan Moore ($6.00) is likely next in line for polling, while All-Australian forward Jack Gunston ($13.00) will reap the voting rewards from some of his big hauls this year. <\/p>\n
Magic Jamie snags GREATEST finals mark? | 00:42<\/p>\n
MELBOURNE<\/p>\n
Nobody will rival skipper Max Gawn ($1.05) for most votes at the Dees, still showing no signs of slowing down \u2014 ranking sixth for coaches\u2019 votes. In a testament to his impact as not just a ruckman but a ball-winner, Gawn eclipsed 20 disposals in 14 of his 23 games this year. Kysaiah Pickett ($13.00) and Christian Petracca ($15.00) could battle it out for second place, but this mantle is Gawn\u2019s to lose. <\/p>\n
NORTH MELBOURNE<\/p>\n
Ruck Tristan Xerri ($1.40) had an All-Australian-calibre campaign \u2014 sitting third for average Champion Data player rating \u2014 and will be hard to top here, though midfielders Luke Davies-Uniacke ($3.50) and Harry Sheezel ($4.00) will take votes off the big fella, especially while he missed three matches due to suspension. This race might end up being a little bit close for comfort, with Sheezel averaging 29.3 disposals per game this year and having days out in Round 2, Round 8 and Round 23 in particular. <\/p>\n
Controversial umpiring call in Cats win | 01:29<\/p>\n
PORT ADELAIDE<\/p>\n
No one at the Power will top Zak Butters ($1.05) for most club votes, again setting the tone in Port Adelaide\u2019s midfield \u2014 ranking eighth in the competition for total clearances per game. But Connor Rozee ($8.00) will almost certainly be second in line given Jason Horne-Francis ($151.00) missed time and appeared to be impacted by injury even when he did play in the back end of the season. <\/p>\n
RICHMOND<\/p>\n
Hard-headed midfielder Tim Taranto ($1.03) is the overwhelming favourite to poll the most Tigers votes, with the next closest set to be ball-winning teammate Jacob Hopper ($13.00). Taranto topped 28 disposals on seven occasions this year and exhibited his uncompromising approach to the contest, which will bode well for him in the eyes of the umpires. <\/p>\n
“He’s got an injury like everyone else” | 01:00<\/p>\n
ST KILDA<\/p>\n
Emerging superstar Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (market susp.) will unquestionably win this race, but Jack Sinclair ($1.55) is likely to be next in line. Sinclair topped 30 disposals on seven occasions this year, with two of those coming in Saints wins to pique the umpires\u2019 interest. There will be some intrigue, however, as to how veteran Jack Macrae ($3.50) polls, and whether he can make Sinclair sweat on Monday night. Interestingly, while Sinclair has shorter Pointsbet odds, Macrae is favoured to finish with 0.5 more votes, per respected independent statistics website Wheeloratings.com\u2019s model. Reliable ruck Rowan Marshall ($5.50) should also poll a few votes to keep things interesting. <\/p>\n
SYDNEY SWANS<\/p>\n
Isaac Heeney ($1.25) didn\u2019t quite reach the heights of his career-best season last year, but he\u2019s highly likely to lead the Swans\u2019 vote-getting charge after another terrific campaign that saw him notch 20 or more disposals with two or more goals on nine occasions. Brodie Grundy ($4.00) could be Heeney\u2019s only challenge after making the All-Australian squad. <\/p>\n
“Some of the best we’ve seen!” | 03:42<\/p>\n
WEST COAST EAGLES<\/p>\n
This may just wind up being the tightest race of them all, due to the scarcity of votes set to be polled by Eagles on Monday night. Harley Reid and Liam Baker (both $4.00) are neck and neck in terms of favouritism, while Brady Hough and Jack Graham (both $5.00) aren\u2019t far behind at all and could well challenge the aforementioned pair. Wheeloratings.com\u2019s model believes Reid is the favourite to top the West Coast polling, but with an unconvincing 41 per cent likelihood. <\/p>\n
WESTERN BULLDOGS<\/p>\n
As good as Ed Richards\u2019 ($3.75) season was, favouritism at the Dogs continues to belong to superstar skipper Marcus Bontempelli ($1.30), who remains arguably the competition\u2019s best player. \u2018Bont and his understudy finished the season one and two for average Champion Data player rating. Richards is an outside chance of pipping his great teammate, given the captain missed the start of the season due to injury, but Bontempelli was simply too strong throughout the rest of the campaign for there to be any real doubt over his chances of taking out this mantle. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The AFL\u2019s biggest individual award will have its next winner on Monday, with the 2025 Brownlow Medallist to…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":160795,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[560],"tags":[9126,638,23595,12093,64,63,689,55,639,42255,106658,52592,3237,12124,31213,106650,106661,3528,91124,106651,106646,10143,12111,94278,106644,104293,10145,13659,17982,5126,9130,11288,106645,27723,12138,106647,106662,12417,12102,3231,106663,36839,9014,36878,12106,106653,25875,106655,14016,12157,12097,12137,647,80395,106649,3032,25844,677,7800,39209,45718,6082,106643,19095,1079,106657,19545,1138,106659,62647,1124,85,7805,36848,106656,7200,9022,19086,12113,106652,39223,47480,106660,660,106654,106664,106642,106648,698,25581],"class_list":["post-160794","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-afl","tag-adelaide-crows","tag-afl","tag-andy-brayshaw","tag-another-fine-day","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-australia-and-new-zealand","tag-australian-football-league","tag-australianfootballleague","tag-bailey-smith","tag-ball-winning-nous","tag-brady-hough","tag-brisbane-lions","tag-brodie-grundy","tag-career-best-season","tag-club-votes","tag-contest-muscles","tag-contested-possessions","tag-contract-decisions","tag-controversial-umpiring","tag-controversial-umpiring-call","tag-craig-mcrae","tag-dylan-moore","tag-evergreen-veterans","tag-favourites-picks","tag-finals-marks","tag-garry-lyon","tag-geelong-cats","tag-george-hewett","tag-giants","tag-gold-coast-suns","tag-grand-final","tag-home-and-away-game","tag-home-and-away-season","tag-hugh-mccluggage","tag-independent-statistics-website","tag-injury-blip","tag-jack-graham","tag-jack-gunston","tag-jack-jovanovski","tag-jack-macrae","tag-jack-sinclair","tag-jacob-hopper","tag-jamie-elliott","tag-jason-horne-francis","tag-key-midfield-role","tag-lachie-neale","tag-lions-roar","tag-marcus-bontempelli","tag-matt-rowell","tag-max-gawn","tag-max-holmes","tag-melbourne","tag-midfield-teammate","tag-multiple-models","tag-nic-martin","tag-noah-anderson","tag-oceania","tag-patrick-cripps","tag-patrick-dangerfield","tag-player-rating","tag-port-adelaide","tag-prelim-final-matchup","tag-preliminary-final","tag-quad-injury","tag-real-doubt","tag-saints","tag-sam-walsh","tag-second-most-club-votes","tag-sides-loss","tag-south-australia","tag-sports","tag-star-midfielder","tag-steele-sidebottom","tag-stiff-competition","tag-sydney-swans","tag-tim-taranto","tag-toby-greene","tag-tom-stewart","tag-top-three-finish","tag-touk-miller","tag-two-horse-race","tag-umpiring-fraternity","tag-victoria","tag-vital-goal","tag-vote-getting-charge","tag-votes-excepts","tag-votes-set","tag-western-bulldogs","tag-zach-merrett"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/160794","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=160794"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/160794\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/160795"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=160794"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=160794"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=160794"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}