Scientists are considering the possibility of launching a nuclear weapon at an asteroid that could potentially hit the moon in 2032 \u2014 but they say more research is needed before taking this forward as an option.<\/p>\n
The investigation concerns asteroid 2024 YR4<\/a>, which reached notoriety shortly after its discovery in December 2024 when scientists (working with limited observations) revealed it had a relatively high chance of impacting Earth in 2032, peaking at 3.1%<\/a>.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n This got media attention as the 180-foot (55 meters) asteroid is large enough to wipe out a city<\/a>. However, the odds of disaster quickly dropped when subsequent observations<\/a> showed the asteroid was very unlikely to come near Earth. Its impact probability fell to less than 1 in 360 (0.28%) as of February 2025.<\/p>\n You may like<\/p>\n That’s good news for our planet, but the updated tracking also shows the asteroid has a fairly good chance of crashing into the moon \u2014 about 4%<\/a>. A crash of an object that size, and relatively close to Earth, would almost certainly have some effect on us.<\/p>\n Threats to astronauts, spacecraft<\/p>\n If an asteroid the size of 2024 YR4 crashed into the moon, it would produce lunar “ejecta,” kicking up the regolith \u2014 the top layer of dust and small rocks on the surface \u2014 which would substantially increase micrometeoroid debris in low Earth orbit.<\/p>\n The flux could be up to 1,000 times “above background levels \u2026 possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft” as little space rocks can puncture spacecraft, spacesuits and similar, the researchers wrote in the new study, which was posted Sept. 15 on the preprint server Arxiv<\/a> and has not yet been peer-reviewed.<\/p>\n While that’s a threat for satellites and the International Space Station<\/a> (if it does not deorbit in 2031 as planned<\/a>), any attempt to divert the asteroid could create an even higher risk, the authors warned. There remains great uncertainty about the asteroid’s exact mass, which means any attempt to nudge it off course would also be far from certain. An ill-planned deflection mission could accidentally push the asteroid toward Earth, the researchers wrote.<\/p>\n Scientists do have diverting experience to draw upon: NASA<\/a>‘s DART mission deflected an asteroid moonlet<\/a>‘s path in 2022. DART sent a kinetic impactor into the moonlet, called Dimorphos, which slightly altered the little space rock’s path around its parent asteroid, Didymos. But the researchers behind the new study concluded that any attempt at deflecting 2024 YR4 would “appear impractical” because of constraints such as not knowing the object’s mass \u2014 and having a very limited window to study the object further before its close flyby in 2032.<\/p>\n