{"id":165844,"date":"2025-09-24T13:08:16","date_gmt":"2025-09-24T13:08:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/165844\/"},"modified":"2025-09-24T13:08:16","modified_gmt":"2025-09-24T13:08:16","slug":"ufc-perth-main-card-odds-breakdowns-and-predictions-x-factor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/165844\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Perth main card odds, breakdowns and predictions | X-Factor"},"content":{"rendered":"

This weekend (Sat., Sept. 27, 2025), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventures forth to RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, for UFC Perth<\/a>. For the third time in four weeks, UFC is heading international and following the standard booking strategy: load up the event with local talent! In this case, the promotion has severely loaded up<\/a>, as there are currently 14 bouts scheduled for this rare visit to Western Australia even after a late cancelation<\/a>. Many of the athletes are relative newcomers to the promotion, so hopefully there\u2019s a few gems hidden in the mix.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s dig into the analysis and predictions of the four main card fights leading up to the main event<\/a>:<\/p>\n

\"NEW<\/a><\/p>\n

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – JULY 19: Jimmy Crute of Australia punches Marcin Prachnio of Poland in a light heavyweight bout during the UFC 318 event at Smoothie King Center on July 19, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Cooper Neill\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Light Heavyweight: Jimmy Crute (-185)<\/a> vs. Ivan Erslan (+154)<\/a>
<\/a>Best Win for Crute? Modestas Bukaukas For Erslan? Bogdan Gnidko
Current Streak: Crute won his last bout, whereas Erslan has lost two straight
X-Factor: Crute is somewhat infamous for snatching defeat (or a draw) from the jaws of victory
How these two match up: This is a somewhat better 205-pound contest than the originally planned co-main event.<\/p>\n

Crute has skills. He\u2019s a strong wrestler with some of the best Brazilian jiu-jitsu in the division, and he\u2019s plenty capable of throwing heat on the feet. His problems have been gas tank and striking defense, a rough combination in a division full of hard hitters. Erslan, a former KSW champion, is still struggling to carve a spot for himself in the promotion. He\u2019s a bit reckless, known for charging forward and swinging wildly \u2026 for better or worse.<\/p>\n

This fight is a simple enough question: can Crute avoid a late rally? He\u2019s the better technical fighter by a considerable margin in most areas and should be able to the find the takedown. There\u2019s a chance he even finds the early submission finish, like he did in July versus Marcin Prachnio (see that again here<\/a>). If not though? Erslan is tough and will keep swinging. We\u2019ve seen Crute slow down and get clobbered before, so that\u2019s a definite concern.<\/p>\n

It doesn\u2019t feel like a major one, though. Crute has only lost to a higher calibre of fighter than Erslan, and I don\u2019t expect that to change in front of his home country.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Crute via decision<\/p>\n

\"SYDNEY,<\/a><\/p>\n

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – FEBRUARY 07: Jack Jenkins of Australia poses on the scale during the UFC 312 ceremonial weigh-in at Qudos Bank Arena on February 07, 2025 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Featherweight: Jack Jenkins (-285)<\/a> vs. Ramon Taveras (+230)<\/a>
<\/a>Best Win for Jenkins? Jamall Emmers For Taveras? Sirhey Sidey
Current Streak: Both men lost their last bout
X-Factor: Taveras struggles to hit the Featherweight limit
How these two match up: This should be a really fun kickboxing match.<\/p>\n

Both of these athletes are definite action fighters, strikers first and most. Jenkins is best known for his punishing low kicks, which have stopped multiple fights and even broken legs. He can hurt opponents with his hands, too, though. Taveras is a \u201csavage\u201d striker as well. He puts together combinations nicely, hits with power, and is more than willing to throw himself into the fray.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think the gap is quite as wide as the odds imply, but I do think Jenkins is the better striker here in a fight where neither man is particularly likely to mix in a takedown attempt. He\u2019ll have to keep his chin tucked and defense tight, but the low kicks should wear down Taveras and allow Jenkins to capture the back half of the fight clearly.<\/p>\n

Taveras will make it a scrap and have a moment or two \u2026 it just won\u2019t be enough to take the scorecards.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Jenkins via decision<\/p>\n

\"SYDNEY,<\/a><\/p>\n

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – FEBRUARY 09: (L-R) Jake Matthews of Australia punches Francisco Prado of Argentina in a welterweight fight during the UFC 312 event at Qudos Bank Arena on February 09, 2025 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Welterweight: Jake Matthews (-425)<\/a> vs. Neil Magny (+330)
<\/a>Best Win for Matthews? For Magny? Johny Hendricks
Current Streak: Matthews has won three straight, while Magny won his last bout
X-Factor: Magny is an all-time great spoiler
How these two match up: These odds are outrageous.<\/p>\n

At 31 years of age, Matthews has been on UFC\u2019s roster for more than a decade. He\u2019s got legitimate skills everywhere \u2014 there have been fights where Matthews shows off incredible boxing or excellent jiu-jitsu. Consistency is the issue, though, which is the reason Matthews has yet to really advance up the ranks<\/a> despite all the time and opportunity. Magny, conversely, is the model of consistency. An expert clinch fighter who routinely drags opponents into his exact kind of fight against their wishes, Magny routinely makes good fighters look mediocre and is still a frustrating fight very late into his UFC career.<\/p>\n

Last time out, Magny looked reasonably sharp in his underdog win over Elizeu Zaleski.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the thing about Matthews: just because he has the skills to win does not at all mean he will win. On paper, he has the boxing, low kicks and takedown defense to take apart Magny in a way we\u2019ve seen happen on many occasions. However, he also somehow managed to lose to Matthew Semelsberger just five fights ago, despite being worlds better technically than \u201cSemi The Jedi.\u201d<\/p>\n

Matthews struggles to win fights when he doesn\u2019t hold the wrestling edge. He\u2019ll take the first round over \u201cHaitian Sensation\u201d \u2014 everybody does! \u2014 but Magny won\u2019t just go away. He\u2019ll continue to be annoying, pushing into the clinch and insisting on making the Australian work. Once \u201cThe Celtic Kid\u201d starts breathing heavily, expect the tide to turn.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Magny via decision<\/p>\n

\"SYDNEY,<\/a><\/p>\n

SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – FEBRUARY 09: (R-L) Tom Nolan of Australia punches Viacheslav Borshchev of Russia in a lightweight fight during the UFC 312 event at Qudos Bank Arena on February 09, 2025 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC)<\/p>\n

Lightweight: Tom Nolan (-155)<\/a> vs. Charlie Campbell (+130)<\/a>
<\/a>Best Win for Nolan? Bogdan Grad For Campbell? Trevor Peek
Current Streak: Nolan has won three in a row, whereas Campbell\u2019s UFC career is off to a 2-0 start
X-Factor: Campbell is stepping up as a short-notice replacement
How these two match up: Up-and-coming striking talents collide!<\/p>\n

Nolan is still flying under the radar, but the lanky Aussie might be something special. At just 25 years of age, the 6\u20193\u201d Lightweight is a very slick kickboxer who can really punish his opponents at distance and prevent them from finding any kind of rhythm. Campbell, meanwhile, is a hard-hitting combination puncher who aggressively pursues his opponents. In addition to his prowess in the pocket, Campbell has heavy low kicks that could be a very useful weapon against a rangy striker like Nolan.<\/p>\n

Generally, this feels like a match up of \u201cVolume vs. Power.\u201d Nolan throws at a higher rater and strikes with more variety, whereas Campbell is the type to switch hit with big swings on either side. If Nolan can avoid the haymaker, he\u2019s likely to break his opponent down and continue to build upon his own success as the fight wears on. That\u2019s a big \u201cif\u201d however, because Campbell could finish this bout in an instant if he catches Nolan leaning away from an exchange.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, I think Nolan has the venom on his shots to earn Campbell\u2019s respect. A few counter punches or a knee up the middle go a long way in calming an opponent\u2019s big swings, and Nolan has the accuracy to time a few of those shots without getting cracked. Once Campbell is playing Nolan\u2019s game, \u201cThe Cannibal\u201d is in for a difficult fight.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Nolan via decision<\/p>\n

\u2018X-Factor\u2019 Picks for 2025: 45-23<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT HOSTILITIES!<\/a> Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, on Sat., Sept. 27, 2025, for UFC Perth, with a stacked ESPN+ fight card<\/a>. In the main event, rising Light Heavyweight contender, Carlos Ulberg, faces resurgent former 205-pound title challenger<\/a>, Dominick Reyes, in a high-stakes clash scheduled for five, five-minute rounds. In UFC Perth\u2019s co-headliner, Australian favorite, Jimmy Crute, takes on Croatian powerhouse, Ivan Erslan, both of whom are vying for a pivotal win in the 205-pound division. All that and SO MUCH MORE!<\/p>\n

Read More<\/p>\n

Remember that MMAmania.com<\/a> will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Perth fight card<\/a>, starting with the ESPN+<\/a> \u201cPrelims\u201d matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+<\/a>).<\/p>\n

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Perth: \u201cUlberg vs. Reyes\u201d news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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