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Neil PaineSep 25, 2025, 09:00 PM<\/p>\n
Close<\/a>Neil Paine writes about sports using data and analytics. Previously, he was Sports Editor at FiveThirtyEight.<\/p>\n The NHL, especially in the salary cap era, is usually defined by change and upheaval — familiar contenders turning their rosters over, while new powers emerge in their place.<\/p>\n That’s why it was so striking to see the same two Stanley Cup finalists — the Florida Panthers<\/a> and Edmonton Oilers<\/a> — in back-to-back seasons, the league’s first Cup rematch since 2008-09<\/a>, and only the second since 1983-84. Add in Florida’s appearance in the 2023 Final as well, and the NHL hasn’t had fewer unique finalists over a three-year span (just three different teams) since 1954-56, when only the Detroit Red Wings<\/a> and Montreal Canadiens<\/a> reached the Final in those three years.<\/p>\n Editor’s Picks<\/p>\n 2 Related<\/p>\n This run of Panthers-Oilers dominance won’t last forever, and it almost certainly won’t survive past 2025-26 if Connor McDavid<\/a> doesn’t re-sign with Edmonton<\/a> after his current contract ends at the end of the year. But for now, ESPN BET’s preseason odds again list Florida (+300) as the East favorite and Edmonton (+400) as the West’s top pick, suggesting that another rematch is the likeliest outcome.<\/p>\n Of course, that’s only true until it’s not. So the question becomes: If it’s not Florida and Edmonton yet again, who’s next in line to face off for the Cup?<\/p>\n Let’s dive into the most plausible challengers from each conference, just waiting to skate through if the Panthers and\/or Oilers slip up, plus a couple of up-and-coming teams who could crash the party as well.<\/p>\n Note: All odds below courtesy of ESPN BET<\/a> Odds to make Final: +360 | Win Cup: +800<\/p>\n Why they haven’t broken through yet: It’s an excellent question that the Canes are still trying to answer. Despite making the postseason seven straight years, Carolina’s 44 playoff wins have never led to a Stanley Cup Final appearance — giving them the most victories amassed in such a stretch without getting there at least once, topping Toronto’s old record of 41<\/a> from 1998 to 2004.<\/p>\n All of ESPN. All in one place.<\/p>\n Watch your favorite events in the newly enhanced ESPN App. Learn more about what plan is right for you. Sign Up Now<\/a><\/p>\n Along the way, the team has made the Eastern Conference finals in two of the past three seasons, but couldn’t score enough to avoid a Florida sweep in 2023. And their goaltending, always a huge concern, couldn’t stop enough Panthers (most notably Sam Bennett<\/a>) in 2025.<\/p>\n Why 2025-26 could be different: Carolina will once again ride with Pyotr Kochetkov<\/a> and Frederik Andersen<\/a> in net, which is reason enough to wonder if things will be different from last year (when they combined for a .823 SV% in the Eastern Conference finals loss to Florida). But new forward Nikolaj Ehlers<\/a> ought to provide an offensive charge, while trade addition K’Andre Miller<\/a> and prospect Alexander Nikishin<\/a> give this blue line — usually a big strength anyway — more youth and upside, especially if Miller can recapture his 2022-23 form after a downturn in recent years.<\/p>\n Otherwise, the Hurricanes are counting on their familiar puck-possession system<\/a> to finally add up to victory against a Florida core that returns mostly intact from last year. We’ll see.<\/p>\n Odds to make Final: +650 | Win Cup: +1400<\/p>\n Why they haven’t broken through (recently): Tampa Bay certainly has broken through before, winning two Cups — in 2020<\/a> and 2021<\/a> — and reaching another Final in 2022. And just when it seemed like that dynastic run was winding down, the Lightning rebounded in 2024-25, with their best goals per game differential since 2018-19 (+0.91).<\/p>\n But, as in the 2019 postseason<\/a>, that regular-season success didn’t translate. The Lightning were bounced in the first round by Florida in five games for the second straight year, a huge reversal from the old days of Bolts domination<\/a> in the cross-state rivalry.<\/p>\n Why 2025-26 could be different: First and foremost, the Lightning continue to boast one of the league’s most talented cores, which offers reason to think they can get back to seriously contending for the Cup again. They lost little of consequence over the offseason — defenseman Nick Perbix<\/a> was the only real departure — though they also added little, and a team that was the NHL’s fifth oldest in 2024-25<\/a> isn’t getting any younger.<\/p>\n Someday Nikita Kucherov<\/a>, Andrei Vasilevskiy<\/a>, Victor Hedman<\/a> and Jake Guentzel<\/a> will slow down. But until then, this team still carries the potential to go toe-to-toe with Florida, even if the past two playoff results aren’t what Tampa Bay has experienced previously in that rivalry.<\/p>\n Odds to make Final: +850 | Win Cup: +1600<\/p>\n Why they haven’t broken through yet: So much depends on the availability of Jack Hughes<\/a>. When Hughes last played more than 62 games in a season in 2022-23, the Devils ranked No. 4 leaguewide in goals per game; with him missing 20 games in each of the past two seasons, New Jersey’s ranking in that metric fell to 12th in 2023-24 and then 20th last season.<\/p>\n Fantasy hockey essentials<\/p>\n \u2022 Which league is right for you? <\/a> Along with that offensive slide, the team fell out of the playoffs in 2023-24 — costing coach Lindy Ruff his job — and lost in Round 1 to Carolina in five games a year ago, a disappointing end for a team that was third best in goal differential and third youngest (a promising combo!) back in 2022-23.<\/p>\n Why 2025-26 could be different: Hughes’ return to health at the start of 2025-26 camp has New Jersey eyeing a return to the potential of a few years earlier. The Devils have scored 3.13 GPG over the past two seasons with Hughes in the lineup, versus 2.93 without him, which would be the difference between 12th and 21st in the league in 2024-25.<\/p>\n To help them score even more, the Devils added Evgenii Dadonov<\/a> this summer. Russian right wing Arseny Gritsyuk<\/a> might be an interesting pickup as well. If they can resolve their contract impasse with Hughes’ brother Luke<\/a>, the Devils could challenge for the East — but they’ll need to figure out how to solve a Carolina team that bounced them in 2023 and 2025.<\/p>\n Worth a flier? Odds to make Final: +1200 | Win Cup: +3500<\/p>\n Ottawa finally broke its seven-year playoff drought<\/a> in 2024-25 with a young core starring Brady Tkachuk<\/a>, Tim St\u00fctzle<\/a>, Jake Sanderson<\/a> and Shane Pinto<\/a>, who were all 25 or younger a year ago.<\/p>\n The Senators are still learning how to win, but they’ll return that same young core — plus good young defenseman Jordan Spence<\/a> — to see if they can improve further after last season’s 19-point upgrade in the standings.<\/p>\n Odds to make Final: +2800 | Win Cup: +5000<\/p>\n The Habs have made real progress in recent seasons — three straight campaigns of an improved goals differential — culminating in their first playoff berth since 2021. Nick Suzuki<\/a>‘s 89 points were the most by a Canadien in nearly three decades, and Cole Caufield<\/a>‘s 37 goals were the most by a Montreal player his age since 1989-90.<\/p>\n With that young duo leading the way, and an upgraded roster that added defenseman Noah Dobson<\/a> and forward Zack Bolduc<\/a>, Montreal may finally be on the verge of something big.<\/p>\n The rest of the East<\/p>\n Toronto Maple Leafs<\/a> (+1000 to make Stanley Cup Final) WESTERN CONFERENCE Odds to make Final: +450 | Win Cup: +800<\/p>\n Why they haven’t broken through (recently): The Avs had one of the best teams in hockey history<\/a> when they won the Cup in 2022<\/a>, seemingly portending a run of future success in the same style the team enjoyed during the ’90s and 2000s.<\/p>\n Breaking News from Emily Kaplan<\/p>\n Download the ESPN app and enable Emily Kaplan’s news alerts<\/a> to receive push notifications for the latest updates first. Opt in by tapping the alerts bell in the top right corner. For more information, click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n Instead, they fell victim to the familiar attrition that champions face during the salary cap era, between injuries (Gabriel Landeskog<\/a>) and departures (Darcy Kuemper<\/a>, Mikko Rantanen<\/a>, Nazem Kadri<\/a>, Andre Burakovsky<\/a>). Colorado has remained among the league’s better teams, but its goal differential has declined for four seasons running now.<\/p>\n Why 2025-26 could be different: Nathan MacKinnon<\/a> and Cale Makar<\/a> aren’t slowing down. They’ve collectively posted 438 points over the past two seasons, the most in consecutive years by any forward\/defenseman duo in more than three decades.<\/p>\n With that kind of talent at the core — bolstered with the return of trade deadline acquisition Brock Nelson<\/a> and the veteran additions of Brent Burns<\/a> and Victor Olofsson<\/a> — the Avs may have another run in them despite losing to the Dallas Stars<\/a> in consecutive postseasons.<\/p>\n Odds to make Final: +450 | Win Cup: +850<\/p>\n Why they haven’t broken through (recently): The Golden Knights were better on paper last regular season (+0.68 goal differential per game) than they were when they won the Cup<\/a> — still the only team to beat Florida in its past 12 postseason series — in 2023 (+0.52).<\/p>\n But the playoff offense that once carried them has vanished, dropping from 4.00 goals per game in that Cup run to just 2.44 since, capped by back-to-back shutout losses to Edmonton in the second round last spring. The talent and depth have still been there, but the results have not quite followed.<\/p>\n Why 2025-26 could be different: The main reason for optimism in Vegas is that the Knights reeled in the biggest fish of the 2025 offseason, acquiring star winger Mitch Marner<\/a> in a sign-and-trade from Toronto in late June. Marner has averaged 29 adjusted goals<\/a>, 65 adjusted assists and 94 adjusted points per season since 2020-21, making him one of the most dangerous offensive threats (particularly among setup men) in the league.<\/p>\n While we’ve seen players take time to adjust<\/a> to new systems and teammates, Marner will ease into his new situation alongside talents like Jack Eichel<\/a>, which is a scary pairing to think about in the playoffs (where Marner’s struggles have tended to be overstated).<\/p>\n Odds to make Final: +475 | Win Cup: +1000<\/p>\n Why they haven’t broken through yet: Why, indeed? Much like Carolina, the Stars keep slamming into a wall just shy of the Cup Final: Dallas has piled up 29 playoff wins over the past three seasons — the most by a team in a three-year span without reaching the Final — and all it has yielded is back-to-back losses to Edmonton in the conference finals.<\/p>\n ESPN Draft Coverage<\/p>\n Stay up to date with the latest intel from ESPN’s experts. Some historic franchises with similar near misses eventually broke through, but the lingering question for the Stars is whether their current group can ever take the final step.<\/p>\n Why 2025-26 could be different: Mikko Rantanen<\/a> will be with the team for an entire season, which can only help after the Finnish winger became the best player in NHL history to skate for three different teams<\/a> in the same campaign (Avalanche, Hurricanes, Stars) a year ago.<\/p>\n Otherwise, the Stars also shuffled the deck a fair amount over the offseason, firing coach Pete DeBoer — bringing back former bench boss Glen Gulutzan — and undergoing the biggest net loss in goals above replacement<\/a> of any team. That may not seem like cause for optimism at all, but the Panthers could tell you that sometimes a drastic shakeup in identity<\/a> is exactly what a team needs to finally get over the hump.<\/p>\n Worth a flier? Odds to make Final: +1000 | Win Cup: +2000<\/p>\n It might seem wild to think the Kings, of all teams, could dethrone the Oilers in the West — seeing as L.A. has now lost to Edmonton in four straight postseasons, becoming just the fourth team<\/a> in any of the big four men’s leagues to drop four consecutive playoff matchups to the same opponent (without a head-to-head win preceding the streak).<\/p>\n However, the Kings remain intriguing for their mix of youth and experience. And not for nothing, their offseason additions included Corey Perry<\/a>, whose team has made the Cup Final in five of the past six seasons.<\/p>\n Odds to make Final: +2000 | Win Cup: +4000<\/p>\n It isn’t very hard to get excited about the Mammoth as the next potential West contender. This was the league’s seventh-youngest roster a year ago — led by Clayton Keller<\/a>, Mikhail Sergachev<\/a>, Logan Cooley<\/a> and Dylan Guenther<\/a>, all 26 or younger — and the team improved its goal differential for the third consecutive season.<\/p>\n Adding to that foundation, Utah traded for talented forward JJ Peterka<\/a> and signed veteran defenseman Nate Schmidt<\/a> and forward Brandon Tanev<\/a> during an offseason that was a net positive on talent added<\/a>. Dating back to its Arizona days, this franchise has made the playoffs just once (2020) since 2012, but brighter days are on the horizon in Utah.<\/p>\n The rest of the West<\/p>\n Winnipeg Jets<\/a> (+1200 to make Stanley Cup Final)![](\"https:\/\/secure.espncdn.com\/i\/espnicons\/SVG\/external.svg?w=10&h=10\")
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\u2022 Position tiers: Forwards<\/a> | Defensemen<\/a>
\u2022 Goalie guide <\/a> | Category\/Roto picks<\/a>
\u2022 Projections<\/a> | Mock draft lobby<\/a>
\u2022 Rankings<\/a> | Best team names<\/a>
\u2022 Greg Wyshynski’s 10 players to draft<\/a>
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Washington Capitals<\/a> (+1400)
New York Rangers<\/a> (+1600)
Boston Bruins<\/a> (+3300)
Columbus Blue Jackets<\/a> (+3300)
Detroit Red Wings<\/a> (+3300)
Philadelphia Flyers<\/a> (+3300)
New York Islanders<\/a> (+4000)
Buffalo Sabres<\/a> (+6000)
Pittsburgh Penguins<\/a> (+6000)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/1758803955_460_col.png&h=110&w=110.png\")
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MLB: McDaniel’s 2025 MLB draft recap \u00bb<\/a>
NBA: 2025 draft value picks, risky moves \u00bb<\/a>
NFL: Early 2026 first-round predictions \u00bb<\/a>
NHL: 2026 draft class watch list \u00bb<\/a>
WNBA: Top 15 prospects for 2026 draft \u00bb<\/a><\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/1758803957_947_la.png&h=110&w=110.png\")
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Minnesota Wild<\/a> (+1700)
St. Louis Blues<\/a> (+2200)
Vancouver Canucks<\/a> (+3000)
Nashville Predators<\/a> (+3300)
Calgary Flames<\/a> (+4000)
Anaheim Ducks<\/a> (+5000)
Seattle Kraken<\/a> (+10000)
Chicago Blackhawks<\/a> (+15000)
San Jose Sharks<\/a> (+30000)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Neil PaineSep 25, 2025, 09:00 PM CloseNeil Paine writes about sports using data and analytics. Previously, he was…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":168118,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[556],"tags":[64,63,575,85],"class_list":["post-168117","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nhl","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-nhl","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/168117","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=168117"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/168117\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/168118"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=168117"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=168117"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=168117"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}