WATCH THE VIDEO ABOVE: Inflation surge dims rate cut hopes.<\/p>\n
Know the news with the 7NEWS app: Download today However, a survey of 32 economists and financial gurus for Finder\u2019s RBA Cash Rate Survey suggests further movement is unlikely to be announced after the board\u2019s meeting on Tuesday.<\/p>\n It is the first time this year the expert panel has been \u201c100 per cent certain\u201d of the forthcoming outcome.<\/p>\n \u201cMixed economic signals have kept the RBA in a holding pattern. While spending remains strong, rising inflation and increasing unemployment add complexity to the decision-making process,\u201d Finder\u2019s head of consumer research Graham Cooke said.<\/p>\n \u201cDespite full consensus of a pause, the majority of economists predict a further rate cut by November 2025, as inflationary pressures ease and the economy continues its slow recovery.<\/p>\n \u201cHowever, September\u2019s increase in monthly inflation from 2.8 per cent to 3 per cent may keep the RBA\u2019s scissors in the sheath on (Melbourne) Cup day if the quarterly data follows suit.\u201d<\/p>\n Betashares\u2019 chief economist David Bassanese said the higher than expected August consumer price index (CPI) result had effectively killed off the \u201clast fleeting chance\u201d of a cut.<\/p>\n \u201cGiven the recent weakening in employment growth, there was some chance the RBA could have cut rates next week if (Wednesday\u2019s) CPI result was remarkably benign \u2013 such as if annual trimmed mean inflation eased back toward the 2.1 per cent rate seen in June after its surprise jump to 2.7 per cent in July,\u201d Bassanese said.<\/p>\n \u201cAs it turns out, annual trimmed mean inflation did fall \u2013 but only to 2.6 per cent. That\u2019s just not good enough to justify a rate cut next week.\u201d<\/p>\n Senior economist Abhijit Surya, of Capital Economics, said a hold is \u201calmost certain\u201d.<\/p>\n \u201cAfter all, the economy is bouncing back more strongly than the (Reserve) Bank had anticipated, the labour market remains on an even keel, and price pressures are proving somewhat stubborn,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201cThat said, assuming inflation resumes its downtrend, we think the Bank will be in a position to cut rates by another 50 basis points this cycle.\u201d<\/p>\n University of Melbourne economics lecturer Tomasz Wozniak said the RBA is \u201con a slide down with the cash rate\u201d but said cuts will be spread over time, and \u201cwe should not expect a cut at every single meeting\u201d.<\/p>\n One of Australia\u2019s biggest banks, NAB<\/a>, revised its cash rate forecast this week, predicting the next cut could be in May.<\/p>\n The remaining big four banks are still leaning towards November.<\/p>\n \u201cNAB has ripped up its prediction for a 2025 rate cut, pushing the timeline out to May next year following higher-than-expected monthly CPI results,\u201d Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall said.<\/p>\n \u201cThis has almost certainly popped any chance of a September cut.<\/p>\n \u201cThe RBA doesn\u2019t put much weight on the monthly data, but these results are difficult to ignore out of hand and the board isn\u2019t going to take risks with inflation.\u201d<\/p>\n Tindall said the change is a \u201cwake-up call\u201d for borrowers wanting a rate cut before Christmas that you might need to reach out to your bank and be ready to haggle for a reduction.<\/p>\n \u201cAn ultra-competitive variable rate for owner-occupiers is around 5.25 per cent or less, with more than 30 lenders offering at least one of these rates,\u201d Tindall said.<\/p>\n \u201cOwner-occupiers sitting on rates above 6 per cent could be throwing away thousands of dollars out of loyalty.\u201d<\/p>\n![\"Download](\"https:\/\/7news.com.au\/static\/media\/right-red-arrow.92bca5db.svg\"){kind=icon}
<\/a><\/p>\n![\"Reserve](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/2c8b73769f56f888eee7e7415eb39cb50aded483.jpg\")
Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock and the RBA board is tipped to hold the cash rate steady on Tuesday. Credit: Dan Himbrechts\/AAP<\/p>\n