{"id":170477,"date":"2025-09-26T13:48:08","date_gmt":"2025-09-26T13:48:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/170477\/"},"modified":"2025-09-26T13:48:08","modified_gmt":"2025-09-26T13:48:08","slug":"ufc-perth-preview-ulberg-vs-reyes-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/170477\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Perth preview: \u2018Ulberg vs. Reyes\u2019 predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will once again venture away from the familiarity of its APEX facility and ship its cast and crew across the world for the upcoming UFC Perth fight card, locked and loaded for tomorrow afternoon (Sat., Sept. 27, 2025) from inside RAC Arena in Perth, Western Australia, featuring a 205-pound headliner between No. 3-ranked<\/a> light heavyweight contender, Carlos Ulberg, and former division title challenger, Dominick Reyes.<\/p>\n

Like most \u201cFight Night\u201d cards, you\u2019ll need a subscription to ESPN+<\/a> to stream this weekend\u2019s event (sign up here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the 205-pound showdown between hard-hitting fan favorites Jimmy Crute and Ivan Erslan, check out Andrew Richardson\u2019s \u201cX-Factor\u201d breakdown for the rest of the UFC Perth main card by clicking here<\/a>. Get all the latest \u201cUlberg vs. Reyes\u201d odds and betting props courtesy of FanDuel right here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s get down to business.<\/p>\n

205 lbs.: Carlos Ulberg vs. Dominick Reyes<\/p>\n

Carlos \u201cBlack Jag\u201d Ulberg
Record: 12-1 | Age: 34 | Betting line: -250
Wins: 7 KO\/TKO, 1 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 1 KO\/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 6\u20194\u201d | Reach: 77\u201d | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 6.77 | Striking accuracy: 55%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.21 | Striking Defense: 51%
Takedown Average: 0.58 (60% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 85%
Current Ranking: No. 3 | Last fight: Unanimous decision victory over Jan Blachowicz<\/p>\n

Dominick \u201cThe Devastator\u201d Reyes
Record: 17-1, 1 NC | Age: 32 | Betting line: +205
Wins: 5 KO\/TKO, 4 SUB, 8 DEC | Losses: 0 KO\/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 6\u20194\u201d | Reach: 77\u201d | Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.58 | Striking accuracy: 54%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.54 | Striking Defense: 50%
Takedown Average: 0.31 (28% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 82%
Current Ranking: No. 7 | Last fight: Knockout victory over Nikita Krylov<\/p>\n

Carlos Ulberg has won eight in a row and finished five of those fights by way of knockout or submission, good enough to land \u201cBlack Jag\u201d at No. 3 in the light heavyweight rankings. That kind of hot streak should have the kiwi at the front of every conversation when it comes to the 205-pound title chase, but Ulberg is soft spoken and does not have a big personality, which makes me think of the Polynesian bouncers celebrated by Marvel director Taika Waititi<\/a>. Fortunately for Ulberg, the promotion is unlikely to book at third fight between Alex Pereira and Magomed Ankalaev, regardless of what happens at UFC 320, so a victory over Dominick Reyes at UFC Perth will all but guarantee Ulberg the next crack at the light heavyweight crown, particularly with a previous win over former division champion, Jan Blachowicz, to his credit.<\/p>\n

In many ways, Ulberg will be facing a mirror image of himself this weekend at RAC Arena: a big, athletic light heavyweight with knockout power and good takedown defense.<\/p>\n

\u201cAt this point it\u2019s perfect for me, it\u2019s a good test,\u201d Ulberg told UFC.com<\/a>. \u201cI think that fighting him right now, where he\u2019s on his resurgence, and he has something to prove as well, it\u2019s a good time, man. It\u2019s a good time to be in the light heavyweight division. Obviously, it\u2019s a risky fight. It\u2019s risky for me to fight someone who\u2019s ranked number seven but you know, why not do it in a a place like Perth, so close to home, where family members will be able to come and see this, and it\u2019ll prep me up. It\u2019ll be my first headliner, first five rounder, so this will prep me up for the bigger, the bigger show. He\u2019s been in it, man. He\u2019s been here with the best. He\u2019s been in with the greatest of all time. And I think that speaks for itself.\u201d<\/p>\n

Reyes gave former light heavyweight champion, Jon Jones, one of the toughest fights of his UFC career.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs long as I stick to what I know, and go in there, focus on what I can bring to the table,\u201d Ulberg continued. \u201cYeah, [the title picture] is a big puzzle at the moment, but you know, I\u2019m purely focused on what we have in front of us, which is Dominick Reyes. He is a task. So my pure focus right now is to make sure that I get him out of that cage. We\u2019re very excited. There are a lot of moving pieces at the moment, so it\u2019s about creating a story for myself now, and when I get that finish, it\u2019s about them making the right moves after that.\u201d<\/p>\n

Reyes remains one of the great \u201cWhat if?\u201d stories in UFC. Instead of turning the division on its head with an upset victory over Jones, \u201cThe Devastator\u201d was sent back into the pool of contenders and lost his next three fights, all by way of knockout. He\u2019s since been able to right the ship, thanks to an 18-month layoff, with three straight knockout wins of his own. That allowed Reyes to peddle the redemption arc ahead of UFC Perth, which makes for a great story so long as we\u2019re willing to overlook a few basic facts. Beating a shopworn Anthony Smith \u2014 who later retired after losing six of eight \u2014 and the unranked Dustin Jacoby is not exactly the stuff of legend. And I\u2019m not sure there were a lot of high fives and butt slaps for his Nikita Krylov win, either. Those stellar performances certainly gave Reyes his confidence back, but it would have been nice to see him defeat someone in the Top 10.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m right where I should be and it feels great,\u201d Reyes told UFC.com<\/a>. \u201cFrom being so low, almost out of the rankings, to now being back to the top of the division is frickin\u2019 crazy, man. It\u2019s crazy to think that I went all the way down and now we\u2019re back up. To be back where I am, it\u2019s where I should be; right back in the main event slot, fighting the best fighters in the world. I fought three ranked guys in a row, and now, back on top with the opportunity to fight for a title. Top 3 is interchangeable for a title, always, and with my pedigree, the way I fight \u2014 my style and what I do \u2014 plus the support I have behind me, I just gotta handle my business and then we\u2019re looking at the title.\u201d<\/p>\n

Like Ulberg, there\u2019s not much standing between Reyes and the winner of Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is no question at all that I know what I\u2019m doing, we know what we\u2019re doing, and we have the formula, and the formula is just super-hard work,\u201d Reyes added. \u201cThere\u2019s no secret formula: it\u2019s just work your a** off until you ain\u2019t got nothing left. It\u2019s focused work, not just work; all my work is focused. Every session has a purpose, instead of just going out there and doing things. We have a purpose every single day: every training session, every meal, every workout has a purpose, and it\u2019s been great, man. Finding your mojo again \u2014 you lose your mojo and find your mojo again, it feels great. Gratitude is what I lead with and that is what I\u2019m gonna end with, I guess. I\u2019m grateful.\u201d<\/p>\n

Is Reyes back? Better than ever? Probably not, though he was able to benefit from favorable matchmaking prior to UFC Perth and three straight knockout wins looks great on paper. I don\u2019t want to pretend that Ulberg is some light heavyweight deity, he did get stopped by Kennedy Nzechukwu in early 2021, but in the eight fights he\u2019s won since that second-round misstep, he\u2019s been in cruise control the entire time. I do expect \u201cThe Devastator\u201d to have a strong opening round, just as I expect Ulberg to remain patient and technical, chipping away until he hurts Reyes midway through their 25-minute fight.<\/p>\n

From there, it\u2019s academic.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Ulberg def. Reyes by technical knockout<\/p>\n

205 lbs.: Jimmy Crute vs. Ivan Erslan<\/p>\n

Jimmy \u201cThe Brute\u201d Crute
Record: 13-4-2 | Age: 29 | Betting line: -185
Wins: 5 KO\/TKO, 5 SUB, 3 DEC | Losses: 2 KO\/TKO, 2 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 6\u20192\u201d | Reach: 74\u201d | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.17 | Striking accuracy: 52%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.68 | Striking Defense: 42%
Takedown Average: 4.20 (52% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 58%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Submission victory over Marcin Prachnio<\/p>\n

Ivan Erslan
Record: 14-5, 1 NC | Age: 33 | Betting line: +155
Wins: 10 KO\/TKO, 1 SUB, 3 DEC | Losses: 1 KO\/TKO, 1 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 6\u20192\u201d | Reach: 72\u201d | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.50 | Striking accuracy: 44%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 5.17 | Striking Defense: 55%
Takedown Average: 0.50 (20% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 64%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Navajo Stirling<\/p>\n

When Jimmy Crute walked away from MMA after his submission loss to Alonzo Menifield in summer 2023, I didn\u2019t think he was coming back. Then \u201cThe Brute\u201d resurfaced earlier this year at UFC 312 in Australia, where he battled Rodolfo Bellato to a draw. Now he returns for UFC Perth because what would an Australian card be without a local hero like Crute? A 2018 graduate of Dana White\u2019s \u201cContender Series,\u201d Crute is a formidable wrestler \u2014 landing more than four takedowns per fight \u2014 with punishing ground and pound. He\u2019s got serviceable hands with knockout power but his striking is used mostly to set up his ground game, which led him to a first-round submission victory over Marcin Prachnio at UFC 318 back in July. It appears the time off did more for Crute\u2019s mental state than his physical prowess.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere was a portion there where I didn\u2019t walk into a gym for a couple of months, for six months or something,\u201d Crute told UFC.com<\/a>. \u201cI just slowly got back into it, started small with some jiu-jitsu, I started training \u2018cause I enjoyed it. And then I thought, I\u2019m going to give this another crack, I\u2019m going to start striking again and moving on up and yeah, it was a slow build. And it hasn\u2019t really stopped building. It\u2019s still building. I\u2019m just focused on the future, that chapter\u2019s closed. I learned my lessons out of it and I feel like brighter days are coming.\u201d<\/p>\n

Brighter days and easier opponents.<\/p>\n

No disrespect to Ivan Erslan, a fixture for KSW in Poland, but he\u2019s 0-2 under the UFC banner against unranked opponents and has now dropped four of his last six. This is probably his last shot at UFC stardom and perhaps that will motivate him to leave it all on the table this weekend in Perth. The means to that end? Landing something of merit before Crute wraps him up and drags him down. Despite Erslan\u2019s shortcomings in recent years, you can\u2019t underestimate a combatant with 10 knockouts in 14 wins.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019ve just watched a few of his fights, he does some good things,\u201d Crute said about Erslan. \u201cThere\u2019s some holes there to capitalize on, (but it is) more of a focus on myself rather than what he\u2019s doing. I actually feel like I\u2019m extremely in the moment, I can see things as they happen. I actually remember parts of the fight afterwards \u2014 I never used to remember anything after the fight. I\u2019ve got my eyes on the next fight ahead of me. One fight at a time. First or second [round] finish. My hand raised.\u201d<\/p>\n

This is a pretty straightforward matchup. Erslan is going to try to keep it standing and drop bombs early and often. Crute is going to try to walk through them and dump the Croatian on his head, then play Whac-A-Mole. I don\u2019t know if I\u2019m ready to call Crute 2.0 the next big threat at 205 pounds, but he probably doesn\u2019t need to be in order to beat Erslan.<\/p>\n

A first-round finish would not surprise me.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Crute def. Erslan by technical knockout<\/p>\n

Remember to catch the rest of the UFC Perth main card predictions RIGHT HERE<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT HOSTILITIES!<\/a> Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, on Sat., Sept. 27, 2025, for UFC Perth, with a stacked ESPN+ fight card<\/a>. In the main event, rising Light Heavyweight contender, Carlos Ulberg, faces resurgent former 205-pound title challenger<\/a>, Dominick Reyes, in a high-stakes clash scheduled for five, five-minute rounds. In UFC Perth\u2019s co-headliner, Australian favorite, Jimmy Crute, takes on Croatian powerhouse, Ivan Erslan, both of whom are vying for a pivotal win in the 205-pound division. All that and SO MUCH MORE!<\/p>\n

Read More<\/p>\n

MMAmania.com<\/a> will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Perth fight card on fight night, starting with the ESPN+<\/a> preliminary card matchups scheduled for 7 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN+<\/a> at 10 p.m. ET.<\/p>\n

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Perth news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here<\/a>. For the updated and finalized \u201cUlberg vs. Reyes\u201d fight card and ESPN+<\/a> lineup click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will once again venture away from the familiarity of its APEX facility and ship…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":170478,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[570],"tags":[64,63,786,40762,785,85,1396,45879,19457,7990,1647],"class_list":["post-170477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mma","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-fighting","tag-latest-ufc-mma-news","tag-mma","tag-sports","tag-ufc-news","tag-ufc-on-espn-fight-night","tag-ufc-predictions","tag-ufc-previews","tag-upcoming-ufc-events"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/170477","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=170477"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/170477\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/170478"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=170477"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=170477"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=170477"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}