In the next seven days, the UFC light heavyweight division could have a new No. 1 contender.<\/p>\n
And not necessarily Jiri Prochazka or Khalil Rountree.<\/p>\n
Tonight\u2019s UFC Perth main event sees a pair of dark horse contenders potentially charge to the front of the pack when the white hot Carlos Ulberg takes on a resurgent Dominick Reyes. Just a couple of years ago neither man was close to the championship discussion, but now they\u2019re just one win away from grasping at gold.<\/p>\n
Ulberg\u2019s path has been more straightforward outside of a slight stumble to start his UFC career. The charismatic City Kickboxing product was stopped by Kennedy Nzechukwu in his debut and then scored an uninspiring win over Fabio Cherant, but he\u2019s continued to roll with a division-best eight-straight wins, including victories over former champion Jan Blachowicz and one-time title challenger Volkan Oezdemir. He\u2019s yet to put on a performance that cements him as the next man up, but as long as he keeps winning, the rest will take care of itself.<\/p>\n
As for Reyes, he\u2019s two wins away from authoring a comeback story for the ages. The legend of his near-win over Jon Jones has been repeated ad nauseum, but for good reason: He really was that close to beating Jones and his ensuing downfall has only made that inflection point more pronounced. Three straight knockout losses followed what should have been Reyes\u2019s moment and then there was the health scare that had him literally wondering every day if he\u2019d see the sun rise<\/a>.<\/p>\n However, three more knockouts followed, this time going Reyes\u2019s way, and if he can stifle Ulberg, we could realistically see Reyes fight for the title again in 2026. Imagine that.<\/p>\n Where: RAC Arena in Perth, Australia<\/p>\n When: Saturday, Sept. 27. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a five-fight main card at 10 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.<\/p>\n (Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings<\/a>)<\/p>\n Carlos Ulberg (4) vs. Dominick Reyes (T9)<\/p>\n In Carlos Ulberg and Dominick Reyes, we have two physically similar specimens blessed with great height and reach and, perhaps most importantly, athleticism that\u2019s a notch above your average 205er. It\u2019s one reason they\u2019ve both had so much success and why they\u2019re capable of landing a one-touch KO punch at any moment.<\/p>\n The big-game experience edge has to go to Reyes, who spent much of his UFC career facing ranked competition and once almost beat some guy named Jones. You might have heard about it. Even if you view Reyes as being slightly past his prime, he\u2019s maintained much of the agility and poise that once made him a contender (and could again!).<\/p>\n With Ulberg, everything starts with his left hand, whether it\u2019s poking at his opponent with daringly long jabs, or loading it up for a counter hook. There\u2019s nothing fancy about Ulberg\u2019s game, but it\u2019s damn effective when he\u2019s able to set traps for his opponents and land with power. The question is whether he can convince Reyes to play his game.<\/p>\n Reyes has been such a wonderful comeback story and he\u2019s genuinely climbed back to the point where if he were to beat Ulberg and earn a title shot, few could complain (though that says more about the state of the light heavyweight division than Reyes, probably). But I think his willingness take risks and push the action might actually work against him here, because it\u2019s that kind of strategy against which Ulberg has had the most success finding finishes.<\/p>\n I\u2019m picking Ulberg to win by knockout against a live underdog.<\/p>\n Jimmy Crute vs. Ivan Erslan<\/p>\n The good news for Ivan Erslan is he gets a chance to wash away that awful Navajo Stirling loss from UFC 315. The bad news is he\u2019s being positioned as a sacrificial lamb for Australia\u2019s Jimmy Crute in the penultimate bout (don\u2019t you dare call this a co-main event) of the evening.<\/p>\n Listen, Crute isn\u2019t exactly a world-beater himself with just one win since 2020, but he\u2019s always had the talent and the finishing instincts to make his mark in the light heavyweight division. If he can\u2019t reach peak form with a packed RAC Arena rallying behind him, that should permanently lower future expectations for the 29-year-old.<\/p>\n Can Erslan be the reason he slips up? Nah. Erslan has more than enough striking prowess to put a scare in Crute until the \u201cThe Brute\u201d figures out whether it\u2019s best to challenge Erslan in the standup or wrestle him to the mat. He\u2019ll lean towards his grappling, only throwing heavy leather on the feet when he\u2019s conditioned Erslan to fear his takedowns.<\/p>\n Crute submits Erslan and brings the crowd to life just in time for the main event.<\/p>\n Jack Jenkins vs. Ramon Taveras<\/p>\n Ladies and gentlemen, this is your featherweight banger of the evening (well, catchweight\u2026 get it together, Ramon Taveras! How did you come in heavy at 145 pounds???<\/a>).<\/p>\n Jack Jenkins is exactly the kind of standup fighter you put on cards like this to make sure the fans go home happy. The Australian striker is an effective technical boxer who loves to mix it up inside and wear the opposition down with repeated rib-roasters. He\u2019ll have a fun time mixing it up with Taveras, a willing striker focused more on timing power shots than attacking with volume.<\/p>\n Aside from his persistent weight-cutting issues, Taveras\u2019s other big weakness is his love of brawling, which, again, great for the fans, but not great when you\u2019re dealing with a puncher as potent as Jenkins. This one will be fun while it lasts, with Jenkins either putting Taveras down with strikes or early or coming out on a decision after a Fight of the Night-level scrap.<\/p>\n Jake Matthews vs. Neil Magny<\/p>\n Check out these numbers on Neil Magny:<\/p>\n Most UFC welterweight appearances (35)Most UFC welterweight wins (23)Tied for 2nd-most wins in UFC history with Andrei Arlovski, Donald Cerrone, Max Holloway, and Charles Oliveira (the pack trailing only the immortal Jim Miller currently at 27)Must UFC decision wins (14\u2026 yay?)Currently unranked, but a top 15 staple for the majority of his 12-year UFC career<\/p>\n All that got us pondering on the preview show: Is Magny a UFC Hall of Famer? Cerrone is in and if you feel Miller is a lock just based on his longevity stats, then surely Magny deserves similar consideration. Cerrone\u2019s r\u00e9sum\u00e9 was boosted by title fights in UFC and WEC, while Miller being No. 1 in appearances and wins is his claim to fame. Magny falls just short of their achievements, but perhaps stands tall enough to someday make the cut especially if he can rack up a few more wins before he hangs up the gloves.<\/p>\n Anyway, he\u2019s fighting Jake Matthews, a veteran with 22 UFC fights (nothing to sneeze at) that we\u2019ve watched grow up inside the octagon. This is one of those matchups you\u2019re kind of shocked hasn\u2019t been booked before.<\/p>\n Magny took advantage of age-appropriate matchmaking last time out, putting away fellow lifer Elizeu Zaleski late in the second round. He has to figure out how to overcome an athleticism gap Saturday and should expect Matthews to favor his wrestling over his striking. I expect this to play out like many of Magny\u2019s fights, in which he falls behind on the scorecards before surging in the second half of the fight. Only Matthews won\u2019t fade, instead finishing strong and putting Magny\u2019s Hall of Fame campaign on hold for now.<\/p>\n Tom Nolan vs. Charlie Campbell<\/p>\n Tom Nolan has a wonderfully aggressive style and he takes advantage of his lanky frame well, poking away from range and aggressively searching for submissions when he locks on to his opponents. He keeps a good pace, which helps to separate him from the middle of the pack at welterweight as his skills continue to grow. There\u2019s big things ahead for Nolan, a Contender Series signing that our own Jed Meshew ranked as the best prospect from Season 7<\/a>.<\/p>\n On the other side, Charle Campbell employs a steady diet of kicks to control the opposition, and he\u2019ll match Nolan takedown for takedown if this becomes a wrestling contest. The name of the game will be distance control and if Campell can lure Nolan into boxing range, he could turn the standup battle in his favor.<\/p>\n Nolan\u2019s physical tools give him the edge by a hair and I\u2019ll be surprised if this doesn\u2019t go the distance. I have Nolan winning this matchup of a pair of lightweights that should be mainstays on the UFC roster for at least the next five years.<\/p>\n Navajo Stirling def. Rodolfo Bellato<\/p>\n Andre Petroski def. Cameron Rowston<\/p>\n Rolando Bedoya def. Jamie Mullarkey<\/p>\n Colby Thicknesse def. Josias Musasa<\/p>\n Luana Carolina def. Michelle Montague<\/p>\n Brando Pericic def. Elisha Ellison<\/p>\n Loma Lookboonmee (14) def. Alexia Thainara<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In the next seven days, the UFC light heavyweight division could have a new No. 1 contender. 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