\u201cWe\u2019re unlikely to see much from them this month,\u201d he said. \u201cThe monthly CPI indicator was a bit higher for August, which makes a cut even less likely.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe RBA will want to wait for the next quarterly CPI release at the end of next month, which will come a little before the November meeting. That will give them more information on how inflation is tracking, particularly as they are not putting as much weight on the monthly CPI indicator.\u201d<\/p>\n
Interest rate predictions from the big four banks<\/p>\n
2.03pm<\/p>\n
Having previously anticipated further rate cuts this year, National Australia Bank<\/a> has now backtracked and does not expect any more changes to the cash rate until 2026.<\/p>\n Australia\u2019s largest lender Commonwealth Bank has forecast the next rate cut for November, though its economists warned this week that the latest CPI indicator could change the outlook. Westpac says a November interest rate cut is now less certain, though it remains their base case. Neither bank has forecast a cut for today.<\/p>\n Economists at ANZ are also forecasting one more rate cut in November but say there is now a \u201creal risk\u201d that won\u2019t happen.<\/p>\n Read more: It\u2019s over: Big bank bombshell warns no more rate cuts coming<\/a><\/p>\n REIA calls for interest rate cut<\/p>\n 1.46pm<\/p>\n The Real Estate Institute of Australia is urging the Reserve Bank to plough on with rate relief today, despite the recent rise in headline inflation confirmed last week by the ABS.<\/p>\n While the August data marked the highest annual inflation rate in 13 months, deputy president Hannah Gill noted annual trimmed mean inflation is still within the RBA\u2019s 2-3% target range and low enough for the bank to cut.<\/p>\n The industry body said balance in the property market is crucial, adding that actions that help with tackling the core property market problems of affordability and lack of housing supply continue to be important.<\/p>\n Read more: Aussie property big names rally to tackle homelessness<\/a><\/p>\n Home prices continue to rise<\/p>\n 1.29pm<\/p>\n Australians are continuing to grapple with rising property prices, with the latest PropTrack Home Price Index<\/a> confirming August was the eighth consecutive month of price growth.<\/p>\n Home values rose 0.5% last month to reach a fresh record high for the nation<\/a>. Property prices have jumped 5.3% in the last year, with the median value of a home in Australia now sitting at $835,000.<\/p>\n Sydney continues to be the most expensive city in the country to buy a home, followed by Perth and Brisbane. Darwin, Brisbane and Perth are the capitals which have seen the largest price growth increases over the last 12 months.<\/p>\n RBA governor Michele Bullock will announce whether interest rates will drop again. Picture: Monique Harmer<\/p>\n Markets anticipating a hold<\/p>\n 1.14pm<\/p>\n Market expectations of a rate cut have been dropping progressively over the second half of the month, taking a clear dive following the release of the June quarter national accounts data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).<\/p>\n While the economy grew slightly more than economists were expecting, the data confirmed 2024-25 was the weakest financial year for growth in Australia since the early 1990s, excluding Covid.<\/p>\n The likelihood of a cut has been declining daily since 17 September, with the Australian Stock Exchange RBA rate indicator showing 96% of the market do not expect a cut from the bank today.<\/p>\n Read more: Revealed: Surprising number of Aussies expect RBA rate cut today<\/a><\/p>\n Treasurer confident on inflation<\/p>\n 1.02pm<\/p>\n Treasurer Jim Chalmers says he is still confident in the inflationary outlook for the country, despite the uptick observed for August.<\/p>\n \u201cMonthly inflation figures can be volatile and are less reliable than the quarterly figures,\u201d he said. \u201cProgress on inflation has given the RBA confidence to cut rates three times.<\/p>\n \u201cDespite increased volatility in the global economy, underlying inflation is within the RBA\u2019s target and that\u2019s a promising result in uncertain times. These results come at a time where inflation has ticked up in parts of the world including the United States, Canada and New Zealand and remains stubbornly high in places like the United Kingdom.\u201d<\/p>\n RBA warns the economy is \u2018at risk\u2019<\/p>\n 12.47pm<\/p>\n This afternoon\u2019s cash rate decision comes a week on from RBA governor Michele Bullock\u2019s appearance in Canberra in front of the House of Representatives\u2019 Standing Committee of Economics.<\/p>\n Ms Bullock was largely positive when recapping Australia\u2019s progress in curbing high inflation and the nation\u2019s move into a sustained period of lower inflation. Despite this, she suggested the board\u2019s outlook for Australia\u2019s economy is weakening \u201cthe further into the future we look\u201d.<\/p>\n The comments follow continuing international market volatility off the back of geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East, as well as the fallout from the introduction of global tariffs by the United States.<\/p>\n Read more: RBA says Australian economy is at risk despite its strength<\/a><\/p>\n Cut, hold, cut, hold, cut\u2026?<\/p>\n 12.29pm<\/p>\n September marks seven months since the RBA began its first rate cutting<\/a> cycle in more than four years.<\/p>\n Since that welcome relief for Aussie homeowners and borrowers, the bank has yo-yoed between holding the cash rate steady and cutting it. Cuts of 0.25% in February, May and August were interspersed with rate holds in April and July.<\/p>\n While it may feel like things are moving more slowly than anticipated at the start of the year, the approach aligns with the RBA\u2019s plans to gradually provide easing while inflation softens.<\/p>\n Based on this pattern, we\u2019re in line for a hold\u2026 but the RBA doesn\u2019t make decisions based on patterns.<\/p>\n Inflation uptick concern<\/p>\n 12:13pm<\/p>\n The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) monthly indicator last week showed headline inflation jumped to 3.0% in August.<\/a> That is right at the top of the RBA\u2019s desired 2-3% target range where it has been fighting to keep inflation since Covid.<\/p>\n While the bank has been expecting a small rise in headline inflation to coincide with electricity rebate roll offs, the latest data marks the highest annual inflation rate seen in 13 months.<\/p>\n The bank\u2019s preferred figure is trimmed mean inflation, which strips out the effects of one-off and volatile price movements. It rose slightly to 2.7% in August but is still in target.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n