{"id":180666,"date":"2025-09-30T18:49:07","date_gmt":"2025-09-30T18:49:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/180666\/"},"modified":"2025-09-30T18:49:07","modified_gmt":"2025-09-30T18:49:07","slug":"nfl-week-5-betting-power-ratings-adjusting-projections-for-lamar-jackson-tyreek-hill-malik-nabers-injuries","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/180666\/","title":{"rendered":"NFL Week 5 betting power ratings: Adjusting projections for Lamar Jackson, Tyreek Hill, Malik Nabers injuries"},"content":{"rendered":"

Two major injuries in Week 4 are set to affect the long-term outlook for two teams that likely already weren’t going to push for a playoff spot this season. On Sunday, Malik Nabers<\/a> suffered a torn ACL<\/a> in the Giants<\/a>‘ upset win over the Chargers<\/a>, leaving new starter Jaxson Dart<\/a> without his No. 1 receiver for the remainder of the year. Then on Monday, Dolphins<\/a> star and potential trade deadline target Tyreek Hill<\/a> dislocated his knee and tore multiple ligaments<\/a> in the process, ending his season and likely his tenure in South Florida.<\/p>\n

It’s terrible news for both players first and foremost, but bettors will now have to react to what it means for those teams moving forward. We grabbed the Saints<\/a> +2.5 hosting the Giants early Monday before the worst was confirmed, figuring that while the Giants deserved an upgrade in the ratings from last week due to the QB switch, they had to be marked down enough with the Nabers injury that the Saints should probably be favored. One day later, the Saints are 1.5-point favorites across the board.<\/p>\n

The Dolphins saw a nice upgrade in rating last week after competing with the Bills<\/a> on national TV for much of that game, but the Hill injury is just as big a blow to their outlook moving forward. The roster isn’t deep so there’s a reliance on the stars staying healthy, and without Hill the pass game becomes much easier to defend. Throw in a defense that has looked like one of the worst in the league this season and there isn’t a ton of hope that Miami will be competitive against any non-basement team moving forward.<\/p>\n

I have moved both teams to -4 in my spread power ratings, which measure how much better or worse a team is than average and allow us to create a spread for the game on a neutral field that we can then adjust to account for home field advantage and get the spread we believe should be offered by sportsbooks<\/a> for this game. Where that number significantly differs from the market provides a potential betting opportunity depending on the confidence of our ratings.<\/p>\n

The rating puts the Dolphins and Giants tied at 25th in my ratings, which might seem high on the surface. The problem is that there are several teams I would still make underdogs on a neutral field against either. The five who are right there with a slightly lower rating include the two losers from Monday, the Bengals<\/a> and Jets<\/a>. The former may be on track to sink to the bottom, but I’m still holding out hope the results will look better against easier defenses. The Panthers<\/a>, Browns<\/a> and Saints are all in that group just below, while the Titans<\/a> are in a class of their own at No. 32.<\/p>\n

We also have a former MVP likely to miss his Week 5 matchup, which we’ll dive into in the next section.<\/p>\n

Week 5 power ratingsBUF7776.57DET55322.5LAR4.54.53.521PHI4.54.566.57GB45553.5KC422.537LAC3.54420DEN2.51.5122IND2.51.51-1.5-2WAS22221.5TB11111SEA10-1-1.5-1SF01001.5JAC0-100-1.5ATL0-10-1-1.5PIT0-1.5-1.5-1-1.5ARI-10001MIN-1-1-111HOU-1-1-1-10NE-1-1.5-1.5-2-2CHI-1.5-1-1.5-10DAL-1.5-2-1.50-1.5BAL-27777LV-3-2.5-1.5-1.5-2.5MIA-4-2.5-3.5-2.5-2NYG-4-4-3.5-4.5-3.5CIN-4.5-3.5-300NYJ-4.5-3.5-3.5-1-2CAR-5-5-5.5-5-4CLE-5-5-5.5-5.5-6.5NO-5-5.5-4-7-7.5TEN-7 -4.5-4-4-4<\/p>\n

The Bills sit well atop the ratings not because they look like the clear best team in football, but because the issues they have on defense that have been exposed over the last few weeks haven’t seemed as dire as what some other teams are going through. The Lions<\/a> seem to be the team most capable of joining them at the top in the short term, and we’ll see if the issues that cropped up against the Packers<\/a> in Week 1 come back around at some point in the next few weeks.<\/p>\n

The Eagles<\/a> again win a game where special teams plays a major part and the offense fails to impress with just 200 yards against the Buccaneers<\/a>. I have them even with the Rams<\/a> because the talent is so good but if this continues we’re going to have to start treating them as merely above average rather than great, despite their record.<\/p>\n

The rest of our positive rating teams all have the potential to rise into that Chiefs\/Packers tier if they can keep up their play, while the 49ers<\/a>, Jaguars<\/a> and Falcons<\/a> don’t quite look good enough right now to be considered better than dead average with a zero rating. With the Steelers<\/a> defense starting to get healthier and the offense having surprising success against the Vikings<\/a> defense in Dublin, I’m ready to elevate them to that same rating as well.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, I’m not moving teams like the Cowboys<\/a>, Texans<\/a> and Patriots<\/a> up to that level despite their relative levels of success this week. The Dallas offense was impressive after a slow start against Green Bay, but the defense does not look capable of getting enough stops to turn the Cowboys into an average team. The Texans and Patriots both took advantage of home matchups against bad teams, and I don’t know that we learned much about either this week.<\/p>\n

Then we have the Ravens<\/a>. I marked them down three points following their loss to the Chiefs<\/a> as the injuries are starting to pile up on defense and they’re clearly not playing at the same level as the Bills. With my Chiefs rating rising, I thought at best you could argue the Ravens deserved the same rating as the current iteration of the Chiefs if Lamar Jackson<\/a> was good to go. Unfortunately, it looks like he’s not good to go, with reports indicating he’s likely to miss this week’s action. I have him as seven points better than Cooper Rush<\/a>, so when you combine that decrease with my previous downgrade, I’ve dropped the Ravens a whopping 10 points from where I had them last week and put them alongside the Raiders<\/a> just ahead of the group we discussed at the top. They still have Derrick Henry<\/a> and some healthy stars on defense, but I don’t think this is a competitive team right now without Jackson to save the day.<\/p>\n

Full Week 5 projected lines49ersRams-3-6-6Rating spread is with PurdyVikingsBrowns+4.5+3.5+4MIN could benefit from week overseasCowboysJets+1.5+2.5+1Market overrating DAL?Broncos<\/a>Eagles-5.5-4-3.5PHI metrics don’t match recordTexansRavens-9.5+2.5PKProjections are with Rush at QBRaidersColts<\/a>-6-6.5-7
DolphinsPanthers+1+1.5-1
GiantsSaints+2-2-0.5Big early line move makes NO favoredTitansCardinals<\/a>-8-8.5-7.5
BuccaneersSeahawks<\/a>-1.5-3.5-1.5
LionsBengals+7.5+10+7.5May be easier matchup for BrowningCommanders<\/a>Chargers-3-3-2.5
PatriotsBills-10-8-10.5Market reading a lot into NE blowoutChiefsJaguars+3+3.5+2.5<\/p>\n

This is how I would set each game based on my power ratings and home field advantage data for this week. A large discrepancy between the projected power rating lines and the market lines does not make the game an autoplay, but it gives us a basis for potential strong picks pending further analysis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Two major injuries in Week 4 are set to affect the long-term outlook for two teams that likely…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":180667,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[559],"tags":[1258,1276,64,63,631,615,1261,1257,1252,1238,55558,1234,1256,28654,3055,1243,1255,1246,1237,1274,1240,628,1250,3052,1263,5371,1233,1239,1231,1249,1242,1235,593,116148,56400,116146,59487,116142,116151,116143,59488,116147,116149,116145,116150,116144,1260,1241,1262,1254,85,1247,1253,5385,1272],"class_list":["post-180666","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nfl","tag-arizona-cardinals","tag-atlanta-falcons","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-baltimore-ravens","tag-betting","tag-buffalo-bills","tag-carolina-panthers","tag-cincinnati-bengals","tag-cleveland-browns","tag-cooper-rush","tag-dallas-cowboys","tag-denver-broncos","tag-derrick-henry","tag-detroit-lions","tag-green-bay-packers","tag-houston-texans","tag-indianapolis-colts","tag-jacksonville-jaguars","tag-jaxson-dart","tag-kansas-city-chiefs","tag-lamar-jackson","tag-las-vegas-raiders","tag-los-angeles-chargers","tag-los-angeles-rams","tag-malik-nabers","tag-miami-dolphins","tag-minnesota-vikings","tag-new-england-patriots","tag-new-orleans-saints","tag-new-york-giants","tag-new-york-jets","tag-nfl","tag-nfl-ats-picks","tag-nfl-expert-picks","tag-nfl-expert-rankings","tag-nfl-picks","tag-nfl-power-rankings","tag-nfl-power-rankings-week-5","tag-nfl-power-ratings","tag-nfl-predictions","tag-nfl-spread-picks","tag-nfl-week-5-picks","tag-nfl-week-5-power-rankings","tag-nfl-week-5-predictions","tag-nfl-week-5-rankings","tag-philadelphia-eagles","tag-pittsburgh-steelers","tag-san-francisco-49ers","tag-seattle-seahawks","tag-sports","tag-tampa-bay-buccaneers","tag-tennessee-titans","tag-tyreek-hill","tag-washington-commanders"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/180666","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=180666"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/180666\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/180667"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=180666"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=180666"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=180666"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}