{"id":183413,"date":"2025-10-01T21:08:08","date_gmt":"2025-10-01T21:08:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/183413\/"},"modified":"2025-10-01T21:08:08","modified_gmt":"2025-10-01T21:08:08","slug":"grammy-nominations-predictions-2026-kendrick-gaga-sabrina-carpenter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/183413\/","title":{"rendered":"Grammy Nominations Predictions 2026: Kendrick, Gaga, Sabrina Carpenter"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tLast year at this time, fans were excited that the 2025 Grammys<\/a> looked to be a real horse race, with super-divas Beyonc\u00e9, Billie Eilish<\/a>, Taylor Swift and Chappell Roan all destined to compete in the top categories. But what a difference a year makes: After such a blockbuster-packed slate, it\u2019s not surprising that the 2026 Grammys will not have that kind of competitive heat.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tBut although the months between September 2024 and August 2025 may have been light on the kind of superstar releases that seem preordained for Grammy sweeps, plenty of other contenders have emerged \u2014 and in such circumstances, obvious choices are in short supply.<\/p>\n

\n\tIf it\u2019s a clear and present front-runner you want, there\u2019s really only one: Kendrick Lamar<\/a>. That would be a more exciting development if he hadn\u2019t dominated the 2025 Grammys just seven months ago, with five wins, including song and record of the year, for his smash \u201cNot Like Us.\u201d If he does it again on Feb. 1, 2026, any headlines along those lines will have a serious tinge of d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu. And it\u2019s certainly possible: His most recent release cycle, which includes several singles and his \u201cGNX\u201d album (including the likely top song of the year, the SZA duet \u201cLuther\u201d), straddles two eligibility periods. Grammy voters might be tempted to spread the love and give top awards to somebody else this time, just to mix it up \u2014 except he\u2019s so far ahead, it\u2019s hard to assess who the nearest dark horse might be.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tGrammy followers do love redemption stories, so even though it might be considered a bit of a yawn for Lamar to dominate across categories yet again, there is still one \u201che\u2019s overdue\u201d narrative in play. He has never won album of the year, despite having had four of his previous albums nominated (and he picked up two additional album of the year nominations besides, one as a featured star of the \u201cBlack Panther\u201d soundtrack, the other as guest on a Beyonc\u00e9 record). In any case, a Lamar triumph will still come as good news to most Grammy veterans \u2014 they arguably have a lot of catching up to do on hip-hop, and a Lamar sweep would help put some more drops in that bucket.<\/p>\n

\n\tApart from Lamar, Sabrina Carpenter<\/a> slipped in a strong album right under the Aug. 30 eligibility wire, \u201cMan\u2019s Best Friend,\u201d to join her \u201cManchild\u201d single in putting some heat into the top races, right on the heels of having been a major contender in last February\u2019s contest. <\/p>\n

\n\tOtherwise, pop\u2019s greatest Grammy-hoarding luminaries were mostly off-cycle. Swift and Bey released nothing during the eligibility period. Eilish returns to the competition in a more limited way this year because she is eligible for \u201cWildflower,\u201d a late-breaking single from her previously eligible album. Roan released two non-album singles (or at least non-album-for-now), \u201cThe Giver\u201d and \u201cThe Subway\u201d; either one could\u2019ve been a contender, but it\u2019s the latter being submitted in top categories to avoid vote-splitting.<\/p>\n

\n\tBut there are some strong contenders from superstar artists who haven\u2019t always been Academy pets in recent years. Lady Gaga<\/a> is foremost among them, with the extremely well-reviewed \u201cMayhem\u201d likely to go places that \u201cChromatica\u201d (which was released at the height of the pandemic) did not. Could similarly strong kudos for her U.S. tour push her to a surprise victory in a top division this time? That\u2019s a vindication story that would really make millions of viewers monstrously happy. <\/p>\n

\n\tAs for some of the other possible nominations, it will be fascinating to see what kind of love Justin Bieber\u2019s low-key \u201cSwag\u201d era gets from voters; whether Latin music is allowed back into the big house with major noms, after seeming underrepresented last year; and whether the year\u2019s most commercially formidable freshman, Alex Warren, can pick up some Grammy gold to go along with his multiplatinum single, \u201cOrdinary.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tOnce again, Variety is forecasting the likely nominees in the Grammys\u2019 top four all-genre categories. Barring any ties, there will be eight artists or tracks nominated in each of these four divisions (versus five for all the down-ballot categories). In each case, we more than doubled our possible luck by supplementing the eight picks with an additional 10 possibilities, to cover a wide range of outcomes. Keep in mind that the Grammys are the least predictable of all the major entertainment awards, with usually at least one or two picks in each major category that completely blindside everyone bold enough to make predictions. Set your calendars for when the nominations are announced on Nov. 7 to see how we fared.<\/p>\n

\n\tALBUM OF THE YEAR<\/p>\n

\n\tEight leading contenders, listed alphabetically:<\/p>\n

Bad Bunny, \u201cDeb\u00ed Tirar M\u00e1s Fotos\u201d<\/p>\n

Jon Batiste, \u201cBig Money\u201d<\/p>\n

Sabrina Carpenter, \u201cMan\u2019s Best Friend\u201d<\/p>\n

Elton John & Brandi Carlile, \u201cWho Believes in Angels?\u201d<\/p>\n

Lady Gaga, \u201cMayhem\u201d<\/p>\n

Kendrick Lamar, \u201cGNX\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Laufey, \u201cA Matter of Time\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Weeknd, \u201cHurry Up Tomorrow\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00a0 \u00a0Ten more that could get in: <\/p>\n

Justin Bieber, \u201cSwag\u201d<\/p>\n

Bon Iver, \u201cSable Fable\u201d<\/p>\n

Tyler Childers, \u201cSnipe Hunter\u201d<\/p>\n

Coldplay, \u201cAll My Love\u201d<\/p>\n

Cynthia Erivo, \u201cI Forgive You\u201d<\/p>\n

Sombr, \u201cI Barely Know Her\u201d<\/p>\n

Leon Thomas, \u201cMutt,\u201d<\/p>\n

Tyler, the Creator, \u201cChromakopia\u201d<\/p>\n

Kali Uchis, \u201cSincerely\u201d<\/p>\n

Alex Warren, \u201cYou\u2019ll Be All Right, Kid\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tThis award is very much Lamar\u2019s to lose: All of his previous major albums have been nominated, without a win. Boosting the chances of Lamar breaking that also-ran streak in the category: \u201cGNX\u201d was universally seen as highly enjoyable and a step forward again, after 2022\u2019s dense and polarizing \u201cMr. Morale and the Big Steppers\u201d\u2026 and there is just nothing obviously in line to beat him. That said, the Carpenter and Gaga albums both enjoyed near-unanimous critical acclaim as well as huge populist profiles. The problem is, will they cancel each other out, attracting the same poptimist voters?\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tMost everything else is possible for a nom but not so much a win. Batiste and Coldplay get into this category every time, so it\u2019s hard to count either of them out for another successive nomination. Bad Bunny is hard to figure, since he got passed over on his last album, after getting into the category the time before; the very fact that there was so much controversy over him missing out last time may help bolster a greater groundswell for his latest. Carlile has been a recent Grammy mainstay, and it\u2019s hard to imagine a well-reviewed partnership with Elton dragging her down, even if the collab wasn\u2019t a commercial smash. Bieber is hard to say for sure; the Grammys have run hot and cool on him in the past, with his detour from either straight pop or a heavy hip-hop lean into a vibe-ier sound may well broaden his bona fides with voters. <\/p>\n

\n\tLaufey is easily the boldest of our album picks here, having missed out on an album of the year nom last time (or ever), but she\u2019s worth going out on a limb for in predicting a bigger look. The recording community adores her as a musical role model, and, having graduated to arena shows (like her very sold-out Crypto two-nighter), she seems overdue for a big, wet kiss outside the traditional pop vocal category. (Plus, her throwback style may score votes from the still-significant senior Grammy voters, even if her core demo is mostly collegiate.)<\/p>\n

\n\tFor those not keeping score at home, the oft-snubbed Morgan Wallen\u2019s camp already announced he is not submitting music from his latest blockbuster, \u201cI\u2019m the Problem,\u201d which was the year\u2019s biggest album\u2026 so there\u2019s one potential perception problem the Academy doesn\u2019t have to worry about either way. But it goes both ways sometimes with artists who don\u2019t feel they\u2019ve gotten their proper respect: the formerly estranged Weeknd and Drake have come back into the Grammy fold.<\/p>\n

\n\tRECORD AND SONG OF THE YEAR <\/p>\n

\n\t\u00a0Eight leading contenders, listed alphabetically: <\/p>\n

Gracie Abrams, \u201cThat\u2019s So True\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Justin Bieber, \u201cDaisies\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Sabrina Carpenter, \u201cManchild\u201d<\/p>\n

Billie Eilish, \u201cWildflower\u201d<\/p>\n

Huntr\/X, \u201cGolden\u201d<\/p>\n

Kendrick Lamar & SZA, \u201cLuther\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Rose & Bruno Mars, \u201cAPT.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Alex Warren, \u201cOrdinary\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00a0 Ten more that could get in: <\/p>\n

Coldplay, \u201cAll My Love\u201d<\/p>\n

Miley Cyrus, \u201cEnd of the World\u201d<\/p>\n

Doechii, \u201cAnxiety\u201d<\/p>\n

Lady Gaga, \u201cAbracadabra\u201d<\/p>\n

Ariana Grande, \u201cTwilight Zone\u201d<\/p>\n

Laufey, \u201cLover Girl\u201d<\/p>\n

The Marias, \u201cBack to Me\u201d<\/p>\n

Chappell Roan, \u201cThe Subway\u201d<\/p>\n

Sombr, \u201cBack to Friends\u201d<\/p>\n

Lola Young, \u201cMessy\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tWe\u2019re going to dispense with the formality of offering separate picks for song of the year (honoring songwriters) and record of the year (recognizing producers), since they mostly overlap, even though you can count on a few interesting distinctions in the voting. \u201cLuther\u201d feels like a runaway favorite, between it being Lamar\u2019s year (again), and the strength-in-numbers of having SZA a part of it. But it wouldn\u2019t be crazy if Eilish captured one as a make-good for missing out with the even huger \u201cBirds of a Feather\u201d last time (not to negate the 1.5 billion Spotify streams \u201cWildflower\u201d has racked up on its own).<\/p>\n

\n\tThe real wild cards here are Warren\u2019s \u201cOrdinary\u201d and the \u201cKPop Demon Hunters\u201d standout track \u201cGolden\u201d \u2014 the two real \u201csongs of the summer\u201d in a year that many people said didn\u2019t have one. Neither one exactly feels like Grammy bait, per se. If in the past voters could shut out \u201cBlinding Lights\u201d or \u201cThe Shape of You\u201d from nominations, it is entirely possible they will consider these two singles not cool enough for a top spot. Or will there be factions that give the people what they want?<\/p>\n

\n\tA few of the artists will have made hard decisions about which songs to submit. It\u2019s understood that Roan is submitting the broad-appeal \u201cThe Subway\u201d over the country pastiche \u201cThe Giver,\u201d as the safer bet. On a similar note, Gaga going with \u201cAbracadabra\u201d already has a magic command embedded in the title.<\/p>\n

\n\tBEST NEW ARTIST<\/p>\n

\n\tEight leading contenders, listed alphabetically: <\/p>\n

Ella Langley\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Mar\u00edas\u00a0<\/p>\n

Megan Moroney<\/p>\n

Jessie Murph<\/p>\n

Addison Rae<\/p>\n

Sombr\u00a0<\/p>\n

Alex Warren\u00a0<\/p>\n

Lola Young<\/p>\n

\n\t\u00a0Ten more that could get in:\u00a0 <\/p>\n

BigXthaPlug<\/p>\n

Katseye\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ravyn Lenae<\/p>\n

Mariah the Scientist<\/p>\n

Gigi Perez<\/p>\n

Rene\u00e9 Rapp<\/p>\n

The Red Clay Strays<\/p>\n

Role Model<\/p>\n

Myles Smith<\/p>\n

Zach Top<\/p>\n

\n\tWith Lamar not eligible for new artist (duh), at last we have one of the four top all-genre categories where there is nothing even remotely close to a front-runner\u2026 which isn\u2019t to say that our predictions for the nominees don\u2019t amount to something like an all-bets-are-off eight-way tie.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n\tSpeaking of ties, Langley and Moroney are tied for the most nominations at the upcoming CMA Awards, which speaks to how strongly the Nashville community thinks of them (and probably a lot of voters who only dabble in listening to the genre). Country almost never gets a nomination here \u2026 can Music Row finally land two in one swoop, or three if another newly appointed headliner, Zach Top, could also squeeze in? But if you want an act that appears across genre bases without any vote-split ruining the fun, the Marias may just ever-so-slightly advance to the position of leading candidate \u2014 with Warren, clearly the biggest breakout of the year in strictly commercial terms, looming as a potential behemoth spoiler.<\/p>\n

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