Pelton\u2019s model projects 34.7 wins.<\/p>\n
Why they project to be better than their total:\u00a0I get the logic that Phoenix won 36 games last season then subtracted Kevin Durant. However, the Suns were probably due for some degree of bounce-back after underperforming their projections a season ago, and Durant\u2019s value at this stage of his career is likely overstated. It\u2019s also worth remembering that Phoenix will have no incentive to accumulate losses late in the season because the team\u2019s draft pick has been swapped to the point of irrelevance.<\/p>\n
In other words, the bar is set pretty low \u2014 where overachieving might be pretty easy.<\/p>\n
Pelton has the Suns ranked 13th out of 15 teams in the Western Conference, finishing ahead of win total predictions for the New Orleans Pelicans (32.6 wins) and Utah Jazz (20.2 wins).<\/p>\n
Phoenix\u2019s 34.7-win projection is chasing the Portland Trail Blazers (35.8), San Antonio Spurs (40.1) and Sacramento Kings (43.5).<\/p>\n
The Suns are one preseason game in, but there is already a slight recalibration about how competitive their team might be despite being stuck in a heavyweight conference without much offensive punch alongside Devin Booker. Former NBA guard Patrick Beverley said on his podcast<\/a> this week that \u201cthe Suns can be super competitive.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cI think they can get in a situation at the end of the year \u2014 if Suns win the last three out of five, they can make the play-in,\u201d Beverley said. \u201cI think they\u2019re a team that can do that.<\/p>\n \u201cOver a seven-game series, are they the best team I would put my money on? Probably not. But if you was to bet on the Suns in a play-in game, I would be on the Suns.\u201d<\/p>\n How did Kevin Pelton project the Suns to finish in 2024-25?<\/p>\n Pelton last season had Phoenix tabbed for 45.4 wins<\/a>, good for the sixth-best record in the NBA.<\/p>\n They fell well short of that by nine games to finish 36-46 and 11th in the conference.<\/p>\n The basics of Pelton\u2019s 2025-26 NBA win projection model<\/p>\n Pelton builds his model by using his SCHOENE stats-based projections for players and then a luck-adjusted regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM).<\/p>\n He puts that in a team context by using injury statistics for the players over the past three seasons, then maps that information out by guessing on playing time distributions for the upcoming season.<\/p>\n Pelton\u2019s model spits out a win total based on \u201caverage health.\u201d<\/p>\n Where are we projecting the Suns in preseason power rankings for 2025-26?<\/p>\n
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