{"id":199381,"date":"2025-10-09T03:29:30","date_gmt":"2025-10-09T03:29:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/199381\/"},"modified":"2025-10-09T03:29:30","modified_gmt":"2025-10-09T03:29:30","slug":"ufc-rio-odds-best-betting-props-parlays-and-picks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/199381\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Rio odds: Best betting props, parlays and picks"},"content":{"rendered":"

UFC Rio <\/a>goes down this weekend (Sat., Oct. 11, 2025) inside Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The main event features Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot<\/a>. Gamrot slides in on just about one week\u2019s notice<\/a>, replacing the injured Rafael Fiziev (details here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

The co-main has former Flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo, taking on the red-hot Montel Jackson in a Bantamweight battle. Figueiredo will be trying to get back to winning ways at 135 pounds, having lost to Cory Sandhagen earlier this year (watch highlights<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Rounding out ESPN+\u2019s main card on Saturday are Vicente Luque vs. Joel Alvarez<\/a>, Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto, Ricardo Ramos vs. Kaan Ofli and Lucas Almeida vs. Michael Aswell Jr.<\/p>\n

UFC Rio\u2019s \u201cPrelims\u201d are headlined by Jafel Filho vs. Clayton Carpenter. The undercard also has Vitor Petrino vs. Thomas Petersen, Valter Walker vs. Mohammad Usman and Julia Polastri vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz.<\/p>\n

As always, there\u2019s lots to bet on this card and we\u2019ve got odds for all the fights below:<\/p>\n

UFC Rio Main Card Money Line Odds<\/p>\n

\"Mateusz<\/a><\/p>\n

Mateusz Gamrot comes in on short notice to \u2018save\u2019 UFC Rio. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Charles Oliveira (-102) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (-118)<\/p>\n

Oliveira is coming off a KO loss to Ilia Topuria for the vacant UFC Lightweight title. That was the first KO loss for Do Bronx since Cub Swanson put him away in 2012 (not counting that weird injury he suffered against Max Holloway). Oliveira is on a 2-2 run right now, following that epic 11-fight win streak that saw him become a UFC champion.<\/p>\n

Gamrot totally overwhelmed L\u2019udovit Klein in May. He needed that, after being hurt by Dan Hooker and route to dropping a split decision. The loss to Hooker snapped Gamrot\u2019s winning streak that included wins over Rafael dos Anjos, Rafael Fiziev and Jalin Turner.<\/p>\n

This is a hard fight to call and I think it really depends on how much you think Oliveira may have fallen off in the last few years. He\u2019s 35, which is not ancient. But his fight years are off the chart. He\u2019s had 46 pro bouts now and he\u2019s taken a fair bit of damage over the years (though, far less than most would given his level of activity and opposition).<\/p>\n

His three losses over the past seven years are respectable, to say the least. His most recent KO loss might be against someone we end up calling an all-time great. His other losses were to Arman Tsarukyan and Islam Makhachev. Makhachev is already one of the greats at Lightweight and Tsarukyan is the best fighter in UFC who is yet to fight for a title.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve scrutinized the losses, so we should do that for the wins, too. His wins are somewhat so-so, with decisions over an over-the-hill Michael Chandler and Beneil Dariush.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think Do Bronx has fallen off much, personally, but I do think this is a bad match-up for him. I fear this is a fight where Gamrot is going to get takedowns and then sit in top position for minutes at a time. The result would be the best career win for \u2018Gamer\u2019 and a terrible viewing experience for us all.<\/p>\n

I think we\u2019re heading here because Oliveira does not have very good takedown defense. He does have a sensational guard, though. I think these things mean that Gamrot will take him down, but not be able to finish him. And Oliveira\u2019s submissions off his back are dangerous, but Gamrot is good enough to avoid those. That leaves us with lots of laying around together on the mat.<\/p>\n

Gamrot\u2019s wrestle-pressure game was exposed by Hooker recently. Hooker was able to hurt him on the feet and that really turned the intensity down on Gamrot\u2019s takedown attempts. Gamrot went 4-8 on takedowns in rounds one and two and then 1-7 in round three.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think Oliveira has the offense, on the feet, to change Gamrot\u2019s wrestling as dramatically as Hooker did. Oliveira does have a four inch reach advantage, but I think Gamrot is good enough to avoid his long strikes and get inside. That\u2019s another reason why I think we\u2019re going to get that prolonged wrestling attack from Gamrot (who normally lands a way above average 5.33 takedowns per 15 minutes).<\/p>\n

I hope Oliveira can do something to make this more exciting, but I think Gamrot is going to take this opportunity to back up his talk about being a legitimate contender in the division (even if I don\u2019t think he is one, with or without this win over Oliveira).<\/p>\n

The round total for this is 3.5. The under is -120 and the over is -110. I, of course, see this going over. I think the over is a pretty good bet, actually. I\u2019m a little surprised to not see this set at 4.5, due to Gamrot\u2019s lack of finishing (48 percent of wins coming by decision). Oliveira is a famed finisher, but him not being able to get Chandler out of there last year might be a sign that those days are over.<\/p>\n

With me betting with my head, over my heart, the appealing bets all relate to this one going the distance. Fight to go the Distance is +150, which is quite lovely. Gamrot by decision is +250. Oliveira by decision is +600.<\/p>\n

There are few conservative round props, which I also like. Fight to Start Round 4 is -125 and Fight to Start Round 5 is +110. Fight to Start Round 4 is going to be my play here, because I\u2019m a wuss.<\/p>\n

Gamrot +5.5 at -165 is a good bet, in my opinion, but I am loathe to straight up bet on Gamrot given how repellent his style is (and how much joy I\u2019ve had watching Oliveira over the years).<\/p>\n

Best bet: Fight to Start Round 4 (-125)<\/p>\n

\"Deiveson<\/a><\/p>\n

Deiveson Figueiredo gets a step down in competition at UFC Rio. Josh Hedges\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Deiveson Figueiredo (+250) vs. Montel Jackson (-310)<\/p>\n

Figueiredo is returning to action a lot quicker than I was expecting. He went for a leg lock on Cory Sandhagen in May and ended up getting his knee popped. Based on what I saw, I thought he might have damaged his ACL (which would result in a year or so on the sidelines). I guess it wasn\u2019t that bad. Before that Figueiredo lost to Petr Yan, by decision. Those are his first losses since moving up to Bantamweight.<\/p>\n

Jackson is on a six fight winning streak. Most recently he took a confident decision over Daniel Marcos. Before that he stopped Da\u2019Mon Blackshear with a 18-second KO (see it here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

The oddsmakers have, it seems, moved on from Figueiredo. This is his second longest odds since he fought Sandhagen (where he opened at +300). This is despite Figueiredo being 3-2 as a Bantamweight with losses only to premier opponents. Other than a loss to Jussier Formiga in 2019, Figueiredo has only ever lost to UFC champions\/title challengers.<\/p>\n

He is 37 years-old, though. I don\u2019t like to pick fighters who are that old, but 37 isn\u2019t 40. And there are vets still getting wins at that age in the Octagon. Also, Jackson is no spring chicken himself, at 33.<\/p>\n

Jackson does have a ton of size on Figueiredo. He\u2019s five inches taller with seven inches of reach on him. I think that\u2019s much more significant than their ages. Historically, Figureido has used his takedowns to steal rounds and those have helped him very big fights in his career. It\u2019s going to be hard for him to outwrestle Jackson, though. Even if you take away the size disparity, Jackson lands a very high 3.24 takedowns per 15 minutes. That\u2019s just behind what Umar Nurmagomedov does (3.26).<\/p>\n

Jackson is currently fifth in the Bantamweight division for takedowns landed and number one for takedown accuracy (60 percent). Second in the accuracy stat is Yan at just 48.2 percent. Jackson is also top ten in total control time, control time percentage, total top position time and top position percentage.<\/p>\n

I guess Figueiredo should strike with Jackson then, right?<\/p>\n

Jackson is first in the division with knockdowns landed (11) and knockdown average per 15 minutes (1.46). He\u2019s also first in fewest sig. strikes absorbed per minute (1.35), fourth in sig. strike defense, sixth in striking accuracy and tenth in striking differential.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s an incredible body of work stats. And, he\u2019s not all over these stat lists for just a couple of good performances. He\u2019s fought 11 times in UFC and has won his last six.<\/p>\n

The caveat on Jackson\u2019s stats is that he\u2019s not fought many big names during his long stretch in the promotion. And he\u2019s actually lost to two of the best fighters he\u2019s faced; Ricky Simon in his 2018 debut and Bret Johns in 2020.<\/p>\n

That being said, I think his talent (and his size advantage) will get him through this test and show him to be worthy of fights with some more top ten Bantamweights (preferably some closer to his age).<\/p>\n

With Jackson being such a big favorite, and for good reason, I\u2019m forced to hunt for some better value bets.<\/p>\n

Figueiredo\u2019s toughness and experience leads me to think this will probably go to a decision, even with Jackson being such a potent striker. \u2018Figgy Smallz\u2019 has only been finished three times in his career and two of those were \u2018injury TKOs\u2019.<\/p>\n

Jackson by decision at +110 is the best bet out there, as far as value and lack of risk (in my opinion). Fight to go the distance is -160.<\/p>\n

Jackson -3.5 is -120. I think he\u2019s going to get a shut out on the scorecards in this fight, but I\u2019d want plus odds on that given Figueiredo\u2019s resume.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ll just stick with Jackson getting his hand raised after 15 minutes of fighting.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Montel Jackson by decision (+110)<\/p>\n

\"Joel<\/a><\/p>\n

Joel Alvarez returns at UFC Rio. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Vicente Luque (+380) vs. Joel Alvarez (-500)<\/p>\n

Luque was submitted by Kevin Holland, via anaconda choke, in June (see it here<\/a>). Prior to that he finished Themba Gorimbo with an anaconda choke (see that here<\/a>). Before that he was TKO\u2019d by Joaquin Buckley. He\u2019s now 16-7 in UFC (with five of those losses being stoppages).<\/p>\n

Alvarez has looked sensational lately. In December he finished Drakkar Klose in the first round with a flying knee (see it here<\/a>). Last August he used knees to finish Elves Brener (see it here<\/a>). He\u2019s 7-2 in UFC now with all finishes. His only losses are to Arman Tsarukyan (he\u2019s pretty good) and Damir Ismagulov (he wasn\u2019t half bad).<\/p>\n

I believe Alvarez is just a few wins away from being mentioned in the same breath as our main eventers on Saturday. I believe he\u2019s good enough to be in the mix for a title, thanks to his brutal striking and slick submissions.<\/p>\n

Alvarez is ninth in the division for sig. strike accuracy (53.8 percent) and tenth for submissions per 15 minutes (1.18). The only other fighters who appear in the top ten of those lists are Charles Oliveira, Benoit Saint Denis (who Alvarez was booked to fight in Montreal earlier this year) and Paddy Pimblett.<\/p>\n

There was a time when Luque was feared for both his hands and his jits. But too much time has passed and, significantly, too much damage has been done to Luque since then.<\/p>\n

I think Alvarez is going to be way too quick and creative for Luque, both on the feet and on the ground (if we get there). Alvarez is also a very big Lightweight. He\u2019s 6\u20193\u201d (four inches taller than Luque) and he has a 77 inch reach (two inches longer than Luque).<\/p>\n

Our guys in the main event are both 5\u2019 10\u201d with reaches of 74\u201d (Oliveira) and 70\u201d (Gamrot).<\/p>\n

I do think Luque has plenty of fight left in him, but I just think this is a terrible match-up against a guy who is rising (potentially to the top). This is also a change of opponent for Luque. Previously he was matched against the far more appropriate Santiago Ponzinibbio.<\/p>\n

The hometown crowd won\u2019t like it on Saturday, but I think Alvarez is going to get a big win here and potentially springboard himself into the conversation at 155 lbs.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m so confident in Alvarez that I\u2019m willing to consider some pretty wild bets.<\/p>\n

Sadly, Vegas is also extremely high on Alvarez. The point spread is Alvarez -7.5! And even that\u2019s just -280.<\/p>\n

Alvarez by KO\/TKO\/DQ is +140 and by submission is +165. The fact Alvarez seems equally capable of both types of finishes is keeping those odds in check. However, because of that fact I can\u2019t comfortably bet on those.<\/p>\n

The round props for Alvarez to win are somewhat interesting. He\u2019s +125 to win in round 1, +350 to win in round 2 and +800 to win in round 3.<\/p>\n

I think he\u2019s probably going to win in round 1. However, he is returning from a somewhat lengthy time out and is coming off an injury that cancelled his fight with Saint Denis. Maybe that means we\u2019ll get somewhat of a slow start out of him. Also 40 percent of his finishes have come after the first round.<\/p>\n

DraftKings does have Alvarez to Win And Under 1.5 for -145. That covers my bases with regards to the two things I think are most likely to happen (Alvarez getting a quick finish or Alvarez starting a little slowly and then getting the finish early in round two). I\u2019ll go for that.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Joel Alvarez and Under 1.5 rounds (-145)<\/p>\n

\"Jhonata<\/a><\/p>\n

Jhonata Diniz gets a stiff test at UFC Rio.<\/p>\n

Jhonata Diniz (-110) vs. Mario Pinto (-110)<\/p>\n

Diniz got a win over Alvin Hines in his last fight. He was the clear winner in that one, but he certainly didn\u2019t cruise past the debut fighter. That was his rebound fight after getting beat down by Marcin Tybura last year (see that here<\/a>). That Tybura defeat was the first loss of his MMA career.<\/p>\n

Pinto moved to 10-0 after KOing Austen Lane in his UFC debut (see it here<\/a>). He came off Contender Series with a TKO win, too. The Portuguese fighter is a former champion in Levels Fight League, which is one below the top European MMA organizations (KSW, OKTAGON, Cage Warriors).<\/p>\n

This is a very interesting and close fight (as represented by the odds).<\/p>\n

I was expecting to see Pinto measure much bigger than Diniz. However, they actually have the same reach at 79 inches.<\/p>\n

Pinto hasn\u2019t shown it yet, but he is more than just a striker. He\u2019s been able to get wins outside UFC using wrestling. Diniz is still very much a kickboxer with MMA gloves on. He\u2019s getting better at stopping the takedown, but his get-ups are still pretty atrocious.<\/p>\n

Pinto being more rounded has me siding with him here, but I\u2019m not going to back him on the moneyline. The odds are too short for me, when the risk is so high. That risk being that Diniz, for all his faults, is still a very good striker \u2014 the best Pinto has ever seen.<\/p>\n

The round total is very low here, a sign of the times in current MMA oddsmaking. It\u2019s 1.5 rounds and I think that\u2019s low. Yes, these guys have lots of finishes in their careers. But, for both these guys, the only first round finish they have in the Octagon came on Contender Series.<\/p>\n

For Pinto, three of the past four fights he had before signing with UFC, went to a decision.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-195)<\/p>\n

\"Kaan<\/a><\/p>\n

Kaan Ofli is likely fighting for his contract at UFC Rio. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Ricardo Ramos (-185) vs. Kaan Ofli (+154)<\/p>\n

Ramos dropped a decision to Chepe Marsical in March. Before that he got a split decision over Josh Culibao. Ramos becomes a 15-fight UFC veteran with this bout, despite only turning 30 in August. His lack of renown is due to his mediocre 8-6 record in the organization. He\u2019s fought (and lost to) tough guys, though. That includes Lerone Murphy, Charles Jourdain, Julian Erosa and Said Nurmagomedov.<\/p>\n

Ofli is pretty desperate for a UFC win. He was KO\u2019d by Mairon Santos in TUF finale last year (see it here<\/a>). He was then well-beaten by Muhammad Naimov.<\/p>\n

I think Ofli is fighting in the wrong division. He\u2019s giving up two inches of height and a massive six inches of reach to Ramos here.<\/p>\n

I like Ramos because of that, but I also like him because I have a lot of respect for his losses in the Octagon. Santos and Naimov are OK, but it wasn\u2019t like Ofli came anywhere close to beating either of them.<\/p>\n

Ramos, an Octagon veteran who is only two years older than Ofli, should have more than enough to get the win here. His striking is suspect, but his wrestling and grappling will be able to bail him out if Ofli is somehow able to make an impact in spite of his T-Rex arms.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Ricardo Ramos moneyline (-185)<\/p>\n

\"UFC<\/a><\/p>\n

Sao Paulo\u2019s Lucas Almeida figures to get a lot of support at UFC Rio. Photo by Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images<\/p>\n

Lucas Almeida (+124) vs. Michael Aswell (-148)<\/p>\n

Almeida missed weight and then lost a split decision over Danny Silva in March. Before that he got a decision over Timmy Cuamba. Before that, he was TKO\u2019d by Andre Fili (see it here<\/a>) and submitted by Pat Sabatini.<\/p>\n

Aswell is best known for his war with Bogdan Grad on Contender Series (which did not net him a contract). He was signed on short notice in May and dropped a decision to Bolaji Oki. He went up to Lightweight for that fight, but has come down to Featherweight again for this fight.<\/p>\n

Aswell has landed a ridiculous 9.10 sig. strikes a minute in his last two fights. You need five UFC bouts to be considered in the official stats, but for comparison\u2019s sake the fighter right now with the most sig. strikes a minute is Joshua Van with 8.86.<\/p>\n

Aswell\u2019s gaudy stat is thanks to him landing 118 sig. strikes on Oki and a whopping 155 sig. strikes on Grad. It kind of says a lot that he out struck both those opponents (by 52 when it comes to Grad) and still lost a decision.<\/p>\n

Almeida doesn\u2019t offer that kind of volume (he\u2019s landed 144 sig. strikes in his last two fights combined). Though, he does average a perfectly respectable 4.94 sig. strikes a minute. Almeida does absorb more than he lands, though (5.04). That\u2019s always a red flag for me.<\/p>\n

Almeida does have nice counter-striking. He\u2019ll have lots of opportunities to show that against Aswell. He also has a two inch reach advantage, so he might be able to slip and rip here.<\/p>\n

I slightly favor Almeida in this striking match-up, because of that counter-striking and his power. However, I think it\u2019s too close to call. Because of that I\u2019ll go with the over, expecting this to be another close fight for Aswell that goes to the judges.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-175)<\/p>\n

UFC Rio \u2018Prelims\u2019 Under Card Odds<\/p>\n

\"Jafel<\/a><\/p>\n

Jafel Filho heads to UFC Rio off a loss. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Jafel Filho (+100) vs. Clayton Carpenter (-120)<\/p>\n

Filho came out second best in a mostly-grappling fight with Allan Nascimento in May. Prior to that, he got submissions wins over Ode\u2019 Osbourne and Daniel Barez. He debuted with a submission loss to Muhammad Mokaev in 2023.<\/p>\n

Carpenter gave a good account of himself opposite Tagir Ulanbekov, but nonetheless lost a unanimous decision. Prior to that he submitted Lucas Rocha and won a Performance of the Night bonus.<\/p>\n

This fight will be determined via grappling. Both men are good on the ground, but with games that look completely different. Carpenter is a classic American wrestler who can go beast mode in top position. Filho is more nuanced and dangerous with submissions from the top and off his back.<\/p>\n

I think Filho is going to have success with takedowns in this fight. He lands 2.45 per 15 minutes at a 42 percent accuracy. He took Nascimento down four times on seven attempts and held his opponent to 1 of 6 takedowns.<\/p>\n

Carpenter was taken down on 3 of 6 attempts by Ulanbekov in his last fight. Granted, Ulanbekov might be the best wrestler in the Flyweight division.<\/p>\n

In the war over takedowns I think both Filho and Carpenter will land a couple each. This, to me, means Filho is going to be on the ground a lot and I think he\u2019s going to do enough down there to earn a decision (both on top and off his back). Carpenter doesn\u2019t have much off his back, so I don\u2019t think he\u2019s going to be able to bank enough scoring criteria in those moments when he\u2019s got Filho on top of him.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Jafel Filho moneyline (+100)<\/p>\n

\"Vitor<\/a><\/p>\n

Vitor Petrino returns to Brazil for UFC Rio. Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Vitor Petrino (-298) vs. Thomas Petersen (+240)<\/p>\n

Petrino scored a submission win over Austen Lane in July, after moving up to Heavyweight. He needed that after back-to-back losses to Dustin Jacoby and Anthony Smith. The Jacoby loss was a late knockout (see it here<\/a>) and the Smith loss was an early, rather boneheaded, submission (see it here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Petersen looked okay when he beat Don\u2019Tale Mayes by unanimous decision in May. Before that, he was wiped out by Shamil Gaziev (see it here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Despite being a former Light Heavyweight, Petrino comes into this fight with size and reach over Petersen. The reach is most significant, though, at three inches.<\/p>\n

Petersen likes to throw combos, but he\u2019s prone to getting bink\u2019d on the chin by big single shots.<\/p>\n

Petrino\u2019s durability is questionable, too. But I think his speed advantage in this fight is going to help him land a lot of damage before any gets through to him.<\/p>\n

The round total for this one is 1.5 with the over at -200 and the under at +154.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m liking the over in this one, since both of these guys are pretty willing wrestlers\/grapplers. Petersen might also be quite motivated to take this to the ground.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-200)<\/p>\n

\"UFC<\/a><\/p>\n

Irina Alekseeva will take her funky style to UFC Rio. Ed Muholland\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Irina Alekseeva (+425) vs. Bia Mesquita (-575)<\/p>\n

Aleksseva saw her pro record drop to 5-3 after she lost a decision to Klaudia Sygula in July. That followed her loss to Melissa Mullins in 2023. Her only UFC win is her kneebar on Stephanie Egger in 2023 (see it here<\/a>). Despite the losses, she\u2019s a pretty fun watch. She did her best Leonard Garcia impression in the Sygula fight.<\/p>\n

She\u2019s got a tough assignment here, though.<\/p>\n

Mesquita is just 5-0 in her pro career, despite being in her mid-thirties. That\u2019s because she spent most of her athletic prime winning BJJ World Championships. She\u2019s a second degree black belt under Leticia Ribeiro. She\u2019s been using that to school girls over in LFA recently.<\/p>\n

Mesquita should win this. As soon as she steps foot in the Octagon she can lay claim to being one of the best BJJ player in the women\u2019s divisions. And that\u2019s pretty big, considering how many great grapplers there are in those divisions (Mackenzie Dern, Virna Jandiroba, Erin Blanchfield, Jaqueline Amorim, etc.).<\/p>\n

Alekseeva could make things difficult for her, though. Alekseeva is a wild brawler and if she starts tagging Mesquita she might be able to overwhelm her with pressure and, as a result, make Mesquita\u2019s takedown entries slow, sloppy and telegraphed.<\/p>\n

I think that\u2019s a possibility, but I don\u2019t think that\u2019s more likely than Mesquita getting a bodylock, trip and then whatever submission she wants.<\/p>\n

The round total is 1.5. That\u2019s pretty bullish from Vegas, believing Mesquita is the real deal despite her never stepping foot in an Octagon.<\/p>\n

I think I\u2019ll shade on the side of caution here and expect Mesquita to get the submission in the second round instead. After all, Alekseeva is quite larger than her (and is possibly stronger than her, too) and that might make things a little more difficult on the ground.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-154)<\/p>\n

Betting on sports involves risk, so please only wager amounts you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know if struggling with gambling help can be found with the organizations listed below:<\/p>\n

USA: National Problem Gambling Helpline \u2014 Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER to receive support and learn about available services.UK: GamCare – Call 0808 8020 133 to speak to an advisor about gambling (or visit gamecare.org.uk for live chat and forum options).Canada: Visit responsiblegambling.org for resources on helplines in Canada\u2019s various provinces and territories.Australia\/New Zealand: National Gambling Helpline \u2014 Call (800) 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.\"Stewart<\/a><\/p>\n

Stewart Nicoll gets an away game at UFC Rio. Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Lucas Rocha (-122) vs. Stewart Nicoll (+102)<\/p>\n

Rocha is coming off a submission loss to Clayton Carpenter one year ago. That was his first fight since coming off Contender Series. Prior to that he had bouts with Jose Johnson and Joshua Van fall through.<\/p>\n

Nicoll debuted down in Australia in Aug. 2017. He was the favorite against Jesus Aguilar, but ended up getting put to sleep with a guillotine (see it here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

It\u2019s hard to forecast this fight since we\u2019ve seen so little of Nicoll. I appreciate that he took a year off to re-assess things after that disappointing debut fight, though. That being said, he\u2019s not a young prospect at 30. Whatever he gained, mentally, from a year on the sidelines he might be cancelled out by what he lost athletically.<\/p>\n

Rocha is just 25. He\u2019s been out for a year, too. But going from 24 to 25 is positive maturation, in my opinion. It\u2019s now known that the human brain doesn\u2019t exit its adolescence phase until around this age.<\/p>\n

Without much to go on, when it comes to these guys\u2019 style in the cage, I need to look more at their biometrics. And I\u2019m siding with youth here, despite Nicoll being slightly bigger. I also like that this is a home game for Rocha, I think a few Brazilians are going to get a home crowd bump in their performances this night.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Lucas Rocha moneyline (-122)<\/p>\n

\"Will<\/a><\/p>\n

Will Valter Walker get his fourth heel hook in a row at UFC Rio? Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Valter Walker (-310) vs. Mohammed Usman (+250)<\/p>\n

You know Walker\u2019s recent record, right? The man has locked up three heel hooks in a row. Junior Tafa, Don\u2019Tale Mayes and Kennedy Nzechukwu have all furiously tapped for fear of their legs snapping like a Slim Jim.<\/p>\n

Usman is coming off a decision over Hamdy Abdelwahab. Before that he lost to Thomas Petersen and Mick Parkin. Those were both by decision, too.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s stopping Walker from making UFC history with his fourth heel hook in a row? Nothing Usman is doing. If Walker can slap this move on Nzechukwu, who is fast and powerful, then he can do it on ninety percent of the Heavyweights in this division. That\u2019s an indictment on the division more than anything else, though.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s too early for the submission prop bets, but it\u2019s probably going to have quite short odds. I think this is where this fight is heading, though. The round total is 2.5, which is surprising. I think Walker gets his favorite hold in the first round and finishes it there (Usman\u2019s not exactly spry enough to evade him for five minutes).<\/p>\n

This way I\u2019m covered if Usman goes all out with ground and pound the second Walker goes to the ground, too.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-140)<\/p>\n

\"Julia<\/a><\/p>\n

Julia Polastri draws a former title challenger at UFC Rio. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Julia Polastri (-455) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+350)<\/p>\n

Polastri lost to Lupita Godinez last time out back in March. She put on a spirited display, though. The same thing happened in her loss to Josefine Knutsson last year. Her only UFC win is her split decision over Cory McKenna, also last year.<\/p>\n

Kowalkiewicz turns forty next week. The former title challenger lost to Denise Gomes in her last fight, back in November 2024. Before that she lost to Iasmin Lucindo. Those were both decision losses against two of the better young fighters in the division.<\/p>\n

Before that she was on a four fight winning streak.<\/p>\n

I think this will be a fight where Polastri is game and tough and\u2026 actually wins this time.<\/p>\n

Polastri has good striking (5.62 sig. strikes landed a minute) and takedowns (80 percent accuracy) and she\u2019s not 40 years-old. Kowalkiewicz was successful because she could stop takedowns and deliver volume on the feet. However, as she gets older all of that is starting to fall off. In her last two fights her opponents have almost doubled her up on sig. strikes landed and Lucindo took her down twice (for 5:56 of control time).<\/p>\n

Polastri should be able to beat her up on the feet and sprinkle in some takedowns for a pretty convincing win here. I only have the moneyline and over\/under available right now. I would take Polastri to win by unanimous decision, if possible, to try and get some better odds.<\/p>\n

Best bet: Julia Polastri moneyline (-455)<\/p>\n

\"Luan<\/a><\/p>\n

Luan Lacerda appears at UFC Rio after a long lay-off. Chris Unger\/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images<\/p>\n

Saim0n Oliveira (+210) vs. Luan Lacerda (-258)<\/p>\n

Oliveira is winless (0-3) in UFC right now. He graduated off Contender Series<\/a> in 2021 and then lost a decision to Tony Gravely. He was then TKO\u2019d by Daniel Marcos (see it here<\/a>) and David Martinez (see it here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Nova Uniao\u2019s Lacerda is winless (0-2) in UFC. His losses are to Cody Stamann and Da\u2019Mon Blackshear, by TKO. Those fights were back in 2023.<\/p>\n

In his two UFC fights Lacerda absorbed an absurd amount of sig. strikes (7.07 per minute). Blackshear hit him 66 times before getting the finish in the second round. Stamann hit him a remarkable 103 times (with zero ground strikes).<\/p>\n

Fortunately, Oliveira doesn\u2019t exactly pour it on with volume. He\u2019s landed just 2.67 sig. strikes a minute across four fights. In his decision loss to Gravely he landed just 35 sig. strikes. In his losses to Marcos and Martinez he landed 0 sig. strikes.<\/p>\n

So, who wins? The guy who is a magnet for strikes or the guy who doesn\u2019t throw strikes?<\/p>\n

With striking being neither man\u2019s forte, I think we\u2019re due for a grappling bout here. Both are talented BJJ players (both have double digit submission wins). Oliveira is more active in looking for submissions. Lacerda has a size advantage; that might help even some of that out.<\/p>\n

The round total for this is 1.5, which is totally bizarre for me. It\u2019s that way because both these guys have been finished a lot. But it doesn\u2019t take into account that those fights were against way better fighters.<\/p>\n

Neither is a threat to KO the other guy and I think both are too good at BJJ to be submitted early (perhaps at all).<\/p>\n

Best bet: Over 1.5 round (-145)<\/p>\n

\"Does<\/a><\/p>\n

Does Charles Oliveira get back in the win column at UFC Rio? Jeff Bottari\/Zuffa LLC<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a couple of long shots for Saturday\u2019s action \u2026<\/p>\n

Two-Fight Parlay: Lucas Almeida and Jafel Filho to win (+352)<\/p>\n

I like mostly favorites on this card. Here are the two underdogs I like the most. Almeida and Filho both have winnable fights, against Michael Aswell and Clayton Carpenter. The Americans will be getting a heavy dose of, \u201cuh vai morrer,\u201d too. Maybe that has an impact.<\/p>\n

Mario Pinto to win by Submission (+1400)<\/p>\n

I think Mario Pinto vs. Jhonata Diniz is a very close fight to call, with both guys good on the feet. Pinto\u2019s ground game is nothing to write home about. However, he\u2019s an MMA native, not a kickboxing transplant. Theoretically, he should have an advantage over Diniz on the ground and he might be motivated to take the fight there if things feel like a stalemate on the feet (or if he gets cracked).<\/p>\n

Charles Oliveira to win by Submission in Round 5 (+3500)<\/p>\n

I used my head for my best bet. This is me using my heart. Can you imagine Gamrot dominating Oliveira for four rounds, wrestle mugging him while the crowd boos and bays for blood? Oliveira spends that time trying things off his back, only to get those attempts stuffed and ground-and-pound land on his head. What if this happens deep into the fifth round and then, out of nowhere, Oliveira finally snaps on an armbar or a triangle and gets Gamrot out of there as the crowd goes wild? It\u2019s a storybook ending, for sure. But, isn\u2019t \u201cDo Bronx\u201d one of the guys who seems capable of manifesting such a thing?<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

LIGHTWEIGHT HOSTILITIES!<\/a> Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Sat., Oct. 11, 2025, for UFC Rio<\/a>, with a stacked ESPN+<\/a> fight card. In the main event, resurgent former Lightweight champion, Charles Oliveira, faces rising contender<\/a>, Mateusz Gamrot, in a high-stakes clash scheduled for five, five-minute rounds. In UFC Rio\u2019s co-headliner, Brazilian fan-favorite, Deiveson Figueiredo, takes on American powerhouse<\/a>, Montel Jackson, both of whom are vying for a pivotal win in the 135-pound division. All that and SO MUCH MORE!<\/p>\n

Read More<\/p>\n

Remember that MMAmania.com<\/a> will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Rio fight card<\/a>, starting with the ESPN+<\/a> \u201cPrelims\u201d matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 7 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+<\/a>).<\/p>\n

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Rio: \u201cOliveira vs. Gamrot\u201d news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"UFC Rio goes down this weekend (Sat., Oct. 11, 2025) inside Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":199382,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[570],"tags":[64,63,786,785,85,45879,19458,19457,7990],"class_list":["post-199381","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mma","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-fighting","tag-mma","tag-sports","tag-ufc-on-espn-fight-night","tag-ufc-odds","tag-ufc-predictions","tag-ufc-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/199381","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=199381"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/199381\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/199382"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=199381"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=199381"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=199381"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}