{"id":203433,"date":"2025-10-10T17:15:15","date_gmt":"2025-10-10T17:15:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/203433\/"},"modified":"2025-10-10T17:15:15","modified_gmt":"2025-10-10T17:15:15","slug":"ufc-rio-preview-oliveira-vs-gamrot-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/203433\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Rio preview: \u2018Oliveira vs. Gamrot\u2019 predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will once again venture away from the familiarity of its APEX facility and ship its cast and crew across the world for the upcoming UFC Rio fight card<\/a>, locked and loaded for tomorrow night (Sat., Oct. 11, 2025) from inside Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, featuring a 155-pound headliner between former lightweight champion, Charles Oliveira, and No. 8-ranked<\/a> contender, Mateusz Gamrot.<\/p>\n

Like most \u201cFight Night\u201d cards, you\u2019ll need a subscription to ESPN+<\/a> to stream this weekend\u2019s event (sign up here<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the 135-pound showdown between former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo and red-hot bantamweight contender Montel Jackson, check out Andrew Richardson\u2019s \u201cX-Factor\u201d breakdown for the rest of the UFC Rio main card by clicking here<\/a>. Get all the latest \u201cOliveira vs. Gamrot\u201d odds and betting props courtesy of FanDuel right here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s get down to business.<\/p>\n

155 lbs.: Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot<\/p>\n

Charles \u201cDo Bronx\u201d Oliveira
Record: 35-11, 1 NC | Age: 35 | Betting line: -105
Wins: 10 KO\/TKO, 21 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 5 KO\/TKO, 4 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 5\u201910\u201d | Reach: 74\u201d | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.41 | Striking accuracy: 55%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.26 | Striking Defense: 48%
Takedown Average: 2.23 (39% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 56%
Current Ranking: No. 3 | Last fight: Knockout loss to Ilia Topuria<\/p>\n

Mateusz \u201cGamer\u201d Gamrot
Record: 25-3, 1 NC | Age: 34 | Betting line: -120
Wins: 8 KO\/TKO, 5 SUB, 12 DEC | Losses: 0 KO\/TKO, 0 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 5\u201910\u201d | Reach: 70\u201d | Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.35 | Striking accuracy: 51%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.04 | Striking Defense: 59%
Takedown Average: 5.33 (36% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 90%
Current Ranking: No. 8 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Ludovit Klein<\/p>\n

Charles Oliveira was supposed to fight Rafael Fiziev atop this weekend\u2019s UFC Rio fight card and that felt like the kind of matchup that put \u201cDo Bronx\u201d in the driver\u2019s seat. Then \u201cAtaman\u201d got hurt and bailed on the bout<\/a>, forcing matchmakers to scramble for a new opponent; which was not an easy task, according to Oliveira<\/a>. In fact, the only lightweight to accept the short-notice fight was Polish powerhouse Mateusz Gamrot, forcing \u201cDo Bronx\u201d to do some second guessing of his own<\/a>. Probably because Gamrot is a formidable wrestler who averages more than five takedowns per fight and holds victories over the likes of No. 2-ranked<\/a> Arman Tsarukyan and former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos, among others.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s been a long time since I felt such strong butterflies in my stomach,\u201d Oliveira told UFC.com<\/a>. \u201cBeing able to fight in Brazil again after so long is fantastic. My last time here was during the pandemic, with no crowd. Now, with the hype and the fans watching me up close, that motivates me a lot. I\u2019m happy, focused, and that energy pushes me every single day. To return as the main event, at this stage of my career, with this kind of hype, it\u2019s going to feel special, no doubt. I don\u2019t even want to think too much about it because I get emotional already. On fight night, it\u2019s going to be something magical. So many people cheering, shouting, vibing. I think it\u2019ll be something the UFC has never seen in Brazil.\u201d<\/p>\n

Gamrot is 8-3 under the UFC banner and sports five post-fight performance bonuses, including three \u201cFight of the Night\u201d honors. He\u2019s far more dangerous than his No. 8 ranking<\/a> would suggest and a tall hurdle to clear for Oliveira when you consider how easily Oliveira was taken down in losing efforts to other powerhouse wrestlers like Islam Makhachev and the aforementioned Tsarukyan. The counter to that threat is the Brazilian\u2019s perilous ground game, good enough for 16 wins by submission \u2014 a UFC record. Gamrot has never been finished in 29 professional fights but then again, he\u2019s never faced a prolific finisher like Oliveira, who also holds the promotion\u2019s record for stoppages at 20 (and counting).<\/p>\n

\u201cHe tapped like almost nine times in the UFC,\u201d Gamrot told MMA Junkie<\/a>. \u201cSo, I see holes on the ground, and I always represent wrestling style in the cage. So, it\u2019s gonna be fireworks from the beginning, high pace, and I really can\u2019t wait to exchange submissions with him. Long time I try to get a fight with him because (he\u2019s) one of the greatest, one of the most dangerous guys on the planet. This was my dream, when I signed contract with the UFC. I want to challenge with the guys like Charles Oliveira or the biggest names. So, (I\u2019m) more than ready. Super excited. This is going to be a great show.\u201d<\/p>\n

Gamrot only has one finish over the last four years and that came against Fiziev when \u201cAtaman\u201d blew out his knee. In addition, \u201cGamer\u201d has two decision losses during that span against Dan Hooker and Beneil Dariush, two fighters ranked below Oliveira in the official lightweight rankings<\/a> (Oliveira finished Dariush at UFC 289). It\u2019s not outrageous to suggest that \u201cDo Bronx\u201d \u2014 who has never lost a fight in Brazil \u2014 could do enough damage on the feet to sway the judges, particularly if he manages to keep Gamrot stymied in guard. I\u2019m just not sure Oliveira can pull it off against a tireless takedown machine who is equally effective in Round 5 as he is in Round 1.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Gamrot def. Oliveira by decision<\/p>\n

135 lbs.: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson<\/p>\n

Deiveson \u201cDaico\u201d Figueiredo
Record: 24-5-1 | Age: 37 | Betting line: +235
Wins: 9 KO\/TKO, 9 SUB, 6 DEC | Losses: 2 KO\/TKO, 1 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 5\u20195\u201d | Reach: 68\u201d | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.82 | Striking accuracy: 54%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.64 | Striking Defense: 49%
Takedown Average: 1.69 (35% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 58%
Current Ranking: No. 6 | Last fight: Technical knockout loss to Cory Sandhagen<\/p>\n

Montel \u201cQuik\u201d Jackson
Record: 15-2 | Age: 33 | Betting line: -290
Wins: 8 KO\/TKO, 1 SUB, 6 DEC | Losses: 0 KO\/TKO, 0 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 5\u201910\u201d | Reach: 75\u201d | Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.22 | Striking accuracy: 53%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 1.39 | Striking Defense: 62%
Takedown Average: 3.24 (62% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 68%
Current Ranking: No. 15 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Daniel Marcos<\/p>\n

Deiveson Figueiredo was too fat for flyweight and is now too small for bantamweight. In addition, the former 125-pound titleholder turns 38 in December, which is probably why he\u2019s such a big underdog for this weekend\u2019s co-main event against Montel Jackson. \u201cQuik\u201d \u2014 a nickname that hearkens back to the days of pink milk<\/a> \u2014 will enter the cage with a five-inch advantage in height and seven-inch advantage in reach. Jackson also averages more than three takedowns per fight and should have little trouble grounding the much smaller Figueiredo, whose shoddy takedown defense dates back to his days at flyweight. At the same time, I don\u2019t want to turn this into a eulogy for the hard-hitting \u201cDaico,\u201d who did score decision victories over grizzled bantamweight veterans Rob Font and Marlon Vera.<\/p>\n

\u201cI always tell myself that whenever I lose it\u2019s because I made some mistake in my life,\u201d Figueiredo told MMA Fighting<\/a>. \u201cBetween the Petr Yan and Cory fights, I made some mistakes. Against Cory, I came in dealing with serious injuries, and even so I still fought and didn\u2019t let the fight get cancelled. Now, on Saturday, I want to go in 100 percent, show what I\u2019m capable of and get that win. And of course, I\u2019ll definitely ask for a title shot \u2014 especially because, among the big names in the division, I\u2019m the only one who hasn\u2019t fought Merab (Dvalishvili) yet. I hope I get that opportunity. If I go in there and deliver a great performance, that could get me a title shot. That\u2019s what I\u2019m after.\u201d<\/p>\n

Jackson cut his teeth on Season 2 of Dana White\u2019s \u201cContender Series\u201d back in June 2018 and stumbled out of the gate, losing his Octagon debut to Ricky Simon at UFC 227. That was followed by a three-fight win streak before coming up short against the venerable Brett Johns at UFC Fight Island 2. That was the last time Jacks0n saw the loss column and his current six-fight win streak includes three victories by way of knockout, good enough to land the one-time King of the Cage (KOTC) combatant at No. 15 in the official bantamweight rankings<\/a>. The only knock on \u201cQuik\u201d is that his level of competition has been mediocre, at best, and four of his last six opponents \u2014 including Julio Arce and Jesse Strader \u2014 are no longer competing for UFC.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is the fight we\u2019re always looking for,\u201d Jackson told UFC.com<\/a>. \u201cWe got to continue to do what we did to get us here and we got to continue to do what we need to get us forward. You turn it up more and more as you go along. [The hostile crowd] means nothing. [The fans] can\u2019t fight for him. I\u2019m only fighting one person. I\u2019ll figure [the gameplan] out at the first exchange. Usually, you see how the fight will go after the first exchange.\u201d<\/p>\n

Figueiredo is getting old \u2014 and certainly looked it during back-to-back losses to Petr Yan and Cory Sandhagen. At the same time, those are two of the best bantamweights on the planet, so maybe it\u2019s too early to jump ship just yet. He\u2019s certainly got the power and the experience to handle Jackson, who remains untested against the upper echelon of the division, I just think this is a bad matchup for Figueiredo and that \u201cDaico\u201d will be unable to handle the size of his younger, more athletic opponent.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Jackson def. Figueiredo by technical knockout<\/p>\n

Remember to catch the rest of the UFC Rio main card predictions RIGHT HERE<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

LIGHTWEIGHT HOSTILITIES!<\/a> Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Sat., Oct. 11, 2025, for UFC Rio<\/a>, with a stacked ESPN+<\/a> fight card. In the main event, resurgent former Lightweight champion, Charles Oliveira, faces rising contender<\/a>, Mateusz Gamrot, in a high-stakes clash scheduled for five, five-minute rounds. In UFC Rio\u2019s co-headliner, Brazilian fan-favorite, Deiveson Figueiredo, takes on American powerhouse<\/a>, Montel Jackson, both of whom are vying for a pivotal win in the 135-pound division. All that and SO MUCH MORE!<\/p>\n

Read More<\/p>\n

MMAmania.com<\/a> will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Rio fight card on fight night, starting with the ESPN+<\/a> preliminary card matchups scheduled for 4 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN+<\/a> at 7 p.m. ET.<\/p>\n

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Rio news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here<\/a>. For the updated and finalized \u201cOliveira vs. Gamrot\u201d fight card and ESPN+<\/a> lineup click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will once again venture away from the familiarity of its APEX facility and ship…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":203434,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[570],"tags":[64,63,786,40762,785,85,1396,45879,19457,7990],"class_list":["post-203433","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-mma","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-fighting","tag-latest-ufc-mma-news","tag-mma","tag-sports","tag-ufc-news","tag-ufc-on-espn-fight-night","tag-ufc-predictions","tag-ufc-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/203433","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=203433"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/203433\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/203434"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=203433"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=203433"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=203433"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}