{"id":205398,"date":"2025-10-11T12:23:11","date_gmt":"2025-10-11T12:23:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/205398\/"},"modified":"2025-10-11T12:23:11","modified_gmt":"2025-10-11T12:23:11","slug":"ufc-rio-predictions-mma-fighting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/205398\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Rio predictions | MMA Fighting"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">What was supposed to be a homecoming celebration fight for Charles Oliveira suddenly feels like it has a lot more on the line.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">\u201cDo Bronx\u201d was originally scheduled to fight Rafael Fiziev in Saturday\u2019s UFC Rio main event, and while Fiziev is no pushover by any stretch, his replacement, Mateusz Gamrot, presents a different stylistic challenge and seems even more eager to play spoiler. Oliveira has never lost in Brazil and now, just four months after being brutally knocked out by Ilia Topuria, would be an awful time to see that trend ruined.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">It\u2019s a risky fight for Gamrot, too, though a risk he had to take. The sting of a streak-busting loss to Dan Hooker still lingers despite Gamrot having already gotten back on the winning track, and he\u2019s well-aware the opportunity to knock off a former UFC champion still occupying a top 5 ranking doesn\u2019t come along too often. A loss likely relegates to the realm of the also-rans, but victory could move him within range of the title shot he\u2019s been chasing for so long.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">The co-main event features a similar storyline, with former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo hanging on to his bantamweight title hopes despite two straight losses, and Montel Jackson finally getting the opportunity to add an elite name to his r\u00e9sum\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">In other main card action, Vicente Luque welcomes Joel Alvarez to the welterweight division, heavyweights Jhonata Diniz and Mario Pinto go knockout hunting, and featherweights Ricardo Ramos and Kaan Ofli look to start the show with a bang.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Where: Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">When: Saturday, Oct. 11. The seven-fight preliminary card begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a five-fight main card at 10 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mmafighting.com\/2025\/7\/6\/24460561\/mma-divisional-rankings-which-dominant-ufc-champion-is-most-at-risk-of-losing-their-title\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">MMA Fight<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mmafighting.com\/ufc-events-ppv\/399853\/mma-divisional-rankings-who-is-the-true-no-1-ufc-contender-at-middleweight\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">i<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mmafighting.com\/ufc-events-ppv\/399853\/mma-divisional-rankings-who-is-the-true-no-1-ufc-contender-at-middleweight\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ng Global Rankings<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mmafighting.com\/ufc\/448740\/mma-pound-for-pound-rankings-alex-pereira-merab-dvalishvili-make-big-moves-after-ufc-320-triumphs\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Pound-for-Pound Rankings<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>Charles Oliveira (4, P4P-19) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (9)<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Did I mention Charles Oliveira has never lost in Brazil?<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Yes, Oliveira turns 36 next week, and in fight years it feels like he\u2019s about to turn 50 having grown up in front of our very eyes. Fifteen years ago, Oliveira made his UFC debut as a 20-year-old featherweight with enormously high expectations and despite the rockiest of roads, he somehow met and arguably surpassed them. He remains one of the most exciting fighters in the history of a division packed with future Hall of Famers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Is the chin gone? One has to ask, was it ever really there? Oliveira has been getting knocked down and made to get back up again since his first walk to the octagon. Remember \u201cCharles Oliveira can\u2019t overcome adversity?\u201d There\u2019s a golden oldie. Ilia Topuria won\u2019t be the last fighter to rock Oliveira. It could happen tonight.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Mateusz Gamrot is known for his grappling, but he\u2019s never shied away from striking and he has plenty of power in those hands. The Oliveira that walked in to Topuria\u2019s fists will fall just the same if he employs that strategy against Gamrot. And I see this as a standup fight, with the fighters neutralizing each other in the wrestling and submission game. So throwing hands it is.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Even then, I like Oliveira\u2019s chances. Yeah, he gets hit, but so does Gamrot, and Oliveira has put plenty of opponents on their butts with his aggressive striking style. Precedent is going to be set and it won\u2019t be Oliveira suffering a Brazilian blemish, but rather Gamrot losing inside the distance for the first time.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Make it 18-0 at home for Oliveira.<\/p>\n<p>Deiveson Figueiredo (7) vs. Montel Jackson<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Now if you want to count out a Brazilian veteran, well, Montel Jackson over Deiveson Figueiredo might be the way to go.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">As My Best Friend Mike Heck so eloquently outlined on our preview show, based on betting value, Figueiredo is more than a sensible pick as a +260 underdog according to <a href=\"https:\/\/sportsbook.fanduel.com\/mma\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">FanDuel<\/a>. This is a former UFC champion whose only losses since moving to bantamweight are to Cory Sandhagen and Petr Yan. He\u2019s faced far better competition than Jackson has and is, on paper, the toughest test yet for Jackson.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">But all things even, I can\u2019t pick against \u201cQuik.\u201d I\u2019ve been on the Jackson bandwagon for a long time, preaching that if the 33-year-old could get his health on track and book the right opponents, he\u2019d be fighting for a title. It took longer than a lot of us expected, but here he is, with the chance to claim a top 10 spot seven years after being signed off of Dana White\u2019s Contender Series.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Jackson has so many physical advantages in this one. He\u2019s taller, bulkier, an has over seven inches in reach over Figueiredo. Despite Figueiredo fighting up a weight class, I\u2019m not even sure he has a speed advantage over Jackson. This is Jackson\u2019s fight to lose, especially if it stays on the fight, where he will cook Figueiredo for three rounds or as long as it takes to knock out the two-time flyweight champ.<\/p>\n<p>Vicente Luque vs. Joel Alvarez<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Joel Alvarez, it\u2019s time to fulfill your welterweight destiny.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">As mesmerizing as it has been to watch the 6-foot-3 (!!!) Alvarez shamble to the scale and occasionally make weight, then step into the octagon with a comical size advantage over his 155-pound opposition, this has always been the move for \u201cEl Fenomeno.\u201d Is he a top 5 contender in this division? Who knows? But at least the man can enjoy a few more sandwiches during fight week.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">For Vicente Luque, Father Time finally seems to be coming to collect his due. Every year we go into a Luque campaign saying, \u201cHe\u2019s only 30\u201d then \u201cHe\u2019s only 31\u201d then \u201cHe\u2019s only 32\u201d and so on. He turns 34 this November and has kept a steady schedule of fights for a decade. It\u2019s clear to even the biggest Luque supporter that the wear has started to tear this fan favorite down.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">That\u2019s a horrible thought when you consider he\u2019s dealing with an opponent who just so happens to have won all 22 of his fights by knockout or submission. Oh, and Luque\u2019s last three losses? Also by knockout or submission. We can do the math here.<\/p>\n<p>Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Time for some heavyweight optimism.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Jhonata Diniz and Mario Pinto are actually pretty good strikers as far as big boys go. Diniz comes from a kickboxing background and while that hasn\u2019t translated into the most graceful performances in his MMA career so far, he\u2019s still a work in progress, and I choose to believe (there\u2019s that optimism) that he\u2019s grown with each octagon outing.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Speaking of growing, at 26, Pinto is a relative baby on the heavyweight roster. He\u2019s nowhere near a finished product, but he is blessed with that one-punch power the matchmakers love and if he can up his output to fill the space in between his home-run swings, the UFC could have something here.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">I know I\u2019m being way too safe with this pick, but I favor the technique of experience of Diniz to give him the edge here. Let\u2019s just hope that Diniz\u2019s defense doesn\u2019t deter Pinto from taking risks, otherwise this could turn into a dreary three-round affair. Regardless, I\u2019m picking Diniz.<\/p>\n<p>Ricardo Ramos vs. Kaan Ofli<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">As the level of Ricardo Ramos\u2019s competition ramped up, his high-flying style has paid less dividends, but the matchmakers have lined up just the right opponent for him to get back to, as Dominick Cruz would put it, \u201creckless abandonment.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">That\u2019s no disrespect to Ofli, who I actually (incorrectly) picked to win a recent season of The Ultimate Fighter. He\u2019s a solid all-around fighter with some sneaky grappling in his back pocket, I\u2019m just not confident he has the wrestling to impose his will on Ramos. He is a strong 145er so he could utilize some wall-and-stalling to frustrate Ramos, but I think that strategy can only take him so far.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">The matchmakers want to start off the main card broadcast with thousands of roaring Rio fans rallying behind a highlight-reel knockout and that\u2019s exactly what Ramos will deliver.<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Michael Aswell def. Lucas Almeida<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Jafel Filho def. Clayton Carpenter<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Vitor Petrino def. Thomas Petersen<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Bia Mesquita def. Irina Alekseeva<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Stewart Nicoll def. Lucas Rocha<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Julia Polastri def. Karolina Kowalkiewicz<\/p>\n<p class=\"duet--article--dangerously-set-cms-markup duet--article--standard-paragraph _1nfb3k4i _16w9vov1 _16w9vov0 ls9zuh1\">Luan Lacerda def. Saimon Oliveira<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"What was supposed to be a homecoming celebration fight for Charles Oliveira suddenly feels like it has a&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":205399,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[570],"tags":[64,63,786,1347,785,85,787,1396],"class_list":{"0":"post-205398","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mma","8":"tag-au","9":"tag-australia","10":"tag-fighting","11":"tag-latest-news","12":"tag-mma","13":"tag-sports","14":"tag-ufc","15":"tag-ufc-news"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205398","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=205398"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205398\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/205399"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=205398"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=205398"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=205398"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}