{"id":210405,"date":"2025-10-13T14:39:13","date_gmt":"2025-10-13T14:39:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/210405\/"},"modified":"2025-10-13T14:39:13","modified_gmt":"2025-10-13T14:39:13","slug":"predicting-the-2025-26-nba-mvp-plus-we-preview-the-lakers-and-bucks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/210405\/","title":{"rendered":"Predicting the 2025-26 NBA MVP. Plus, we preview the Lakers and Bucks"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Bounce Newsletter\u00a0\":basketball:\"\u00a0| This is The Athletic\u2019s daily NBA newsletter.\u00a0Sign up here<\/a>\u00a0to receive The Bounce directly in your inbox.<\/p>\n

This is a phenomenal date of birthdays for some NBA players you\u2019ll definitely have nostalgia for. Nat \u201cSweetwater\u201d Clifton, Reggie Theus, Doc Rivers, Derek Harper, Paul Pierce, Jermaine O\u2019Neal, Norris Cole, Yuta Watanabe, Cam Thomas and Matas Buzelis all celebrate today.If you\u2019re new to The Bounce, we\u2019re here every weekday. Welcome!<\/p>\n

Most Valuable Prediction System<\/p>\n

Which of the likely MVP contenders will win it?<\/p>\n

Would you like to know who the 2025-26 NBA MVP will be? Well, do I have the system for you! It\u2019s called the Most Valuable Prediction System (or MVPS for short). MVPS is determined by many different factors that have been studied for centuries, broken up into six categories (all scores are out of 10, with 10 being the strongest):<\/p>\n

Narrative score: How good is the story your season will tell? Bonus points if you are a bit of an underdog and create a top team with your play.
\nExpected ridiculous stats score: How historic and rare are your stats?
\nTeam quality score: Are you doing this for an elite team? Are you propping up a weak team? It\u2019s tricky and subjective. Playing for a team that\u2019s too good can actually hurt a bit, unless the record is historic.
\nClutch score: Do you get it done in the closest moments?
\nPlayer impact score: Does the team fall off a cliff when you\u2019re on the bench or missing games?
\nPerceived value score: This is kind of a combination of the narrative and the impact in its own way.<\/p>\n

Putting all of these together will help us figure out who is the next MVP out of the most likely candidates. Betting odds from BetMGM are included next to the player name for perspective on expectations:<\/p>\n

Returning MVPs<\/p>\n

These four players share seven prior MVP awards, and that doesn\u2019t even count each one having an NBA Finals MVP award..<\/p>\n

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder (+250): The reigning MVP is looking to become the 14th player to go back-to-back (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and LeBron James did it twice).<\/p>\n

Narrative: Other than trying to go back-to-back in both MVP and winning a championship, there isn\u2019t a great story here at the beginning. 6\/10
\nExpected ridiculous stats: Nobody had averaged at least 32 points, five boards, six dimes, 1.5 steals and a block before SGA last season. And he can do better. 9\/10
\nTeam quality: Best, deepest team in the league. 8\/10
\nClutch: One of the clutchest the last three seasons. 10\/10
\nPlayer impact: For most of last season, OKC was historic with him on the floor and just OK without him. 10\/10
\nPerceived value: Despite his impact, many seem to believe the team is great no matter who is on the floor. 7\/10<\/p>\n

Total MVP Score: 50\/60<\/p>\n

Nikola Joki\u0107, Denver Nuggets (+275): He\u2019s a three-time MVP and the best player in the world, and his team got reloaded this summer.<\/p>\n

Narrative: His team was gutted for frugality last season, and he still took OKC to a Game 7 last May. 8\/10
\nExpected ridiculous stats: He could easily average a 30-point triple-double with a 65 true shooting percentage. 10\/10
\nTeam quality: He finally has a real backup center, and they have a legitimate nine-man rotation again. 8\/10
\nClutch: Finished second in Clutch Player of the Year voting last year. 10\/10
\nPlayer impact: Previously, Denver couldn\u2019t survive Joki\u0107 sitting for eight minutes. But now they have Jonas Valan\u010di\u016bnas. 9\/10
\nPerceived value: Everybody knows he\u2019s the best and thinks he has the biggest impact. 10\/10<\/p>\n

Total MVP Score: 55\/60<\/p>\n

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (+1000): Would winning a third MVP in Milwaukee make him less likely to leave<\/a>?<\/p>\n

Narrative: He will be the reason the Bucks are good, and he\u2019s playing the role of superhero. 8\/10
\nExpected ridiculous stats: Only Joki\u0107 makes his line look vaguely pedestrian. 9\/10
\nTeam quality: They\u2019re desperate for a good Kyle Kuzma season. More on the Bucks below. 9\/10
\nClutch: He\u2019s not bad in the clutch, but a lack of jumper makes him tough to trust. 6\/10
\nPlayer impact: Especially this season, I\u2019d be shocked if Milwaukee can compete with him on the bench. 10\/10
\nPerceived value: If Giannis gets this team to 50 wins, it\u2019ll be through the roof. I just don\u2019t think he can. 8\/10<\/p>\n

Total MVP Score: 50\/60<\/p>\n

The Houston Rockets\u2019 Kevin Durant (+4000) has the seventh-highest odds on the board, but he\u2019ll probably split some credit with Alperen \u015eeng\u00fcn. So we\u2019ll keep him out of the MVPS for now. For this group,Joki\u0107 has the edge unless Milwaukee wins a bunch or OKC wins 70 games.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n Could Anthony Edwards be ready for an MVP breakthrough? (Alonzo Adams \/ Imagn Images)<\/p>\n

First-time candidates<\/p>\n

Two foreign-born players have not won MVP yet, but they both could easily put themselves into the conversation. And then the 24-year-old Minnesota star with the biggest personality in the game throws his hat into the ring.<\/p>\n

Luka Don\u010di\u0107, Los Angeles Lakers (+360): He\u2019s finished top-five in MVP voting three times in seven years. Is it finally time?<\/p>\n

Narrative: He\u2019s the new face of the Lakers, and Rob Pelinka has forced the passing of the torch. 8\/10
\nExpected ridiculous stats: He\u2019s a 30-point triple-double threat every night. 9\/10
\nTeam quality: The Lakers should finish top six in the West, but they\u2019re not contenders. 7\/10
\nClutch: He\u2019s one of those guys you expect to make the big shot no matter what. 8\/10\\
\nPlayer impact: The LeBron James part of it will make things murky on how to judge it. 7\/10\\
\nPerceived value: That tone will be set early with LeBron James dealing with the sciatica. But it should be relatively high. 7\/10<\/p>\n

Total MVP Score: 46\/60<\/p>\n

Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs (+1300): It\u2019s only his third year and he\u2019s never sniffed the playoffs, yet his odds are fifth-highest.<\/p>\n

Narrative: He\u2019s the guy who is expected to bend or ruin basketball next. 7\/10
\nExpected ridiculous stats: There\u2019s going to be a year when he averages 25 points, 10 rebounds, five assists, and five blocks. Just not yet. 9\/10
\nTeam quality: This team is possibly a Play-In Tournament team, so it might not even be good enough to boost this. 7\/10
\nClutch: Too early to know if he\u2019s clutch, but we haven\u2019t seen much. 4\/10
\nPlayer impact: The Spurs can\u2019t really survive defensively without him so far. 8\/10
\nPerceived value: If the Spurs take the leap this year, Wemby will get the credit. 8\/10<\/p>\n

Total MVP Score: 43\/60<\/p>\n

Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves (+1900): We haven\u2019t had a U.S.-born MVP since James Harden in 2018. Can Ant do it?<\/p>\n

Narrative: He might not care, but a lot of people consider him the next face of the NBA. 8\/10
\nExpected ridiculous stats: If he can get up to 30-5-5 each night, that\u2019s a great step. 8\/10
\nTeam quality: A healthy Wolves team should be firmly in the top four of the West conversation. 8\/10
\nClutch: He\u2019s been good but not great so far. Will his new post game solve it? 6\/10
\nPlayer impact: Wolves were less reliant on him last year, but he\u2019s big for the offense. 7\/10
\nPerceived value: If the Wolves challenge for the top three in the West, it\u2019ll be because of him. 8\/10<\/p>\n

Total MVP Score: 45\/60<\/p>\n

The Detroit Pistons\u2019 Cade Cunningham (+5500) has the seventh-highest odds, while the New York Knicks\u2019 Jalen Brunson (+8000) and the Cleveland Cavaliers\u2019 Donovan Mitchell (+10000) round out the top 10. Of those three, Brunson should have the best chance, with the Knicks expected to be in the running for the No. 1 seed. Luka still has the best chance of the potential first-timers.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This probably comes down to Shai against Joki\u0107, once again. The MVPS says so. My gut says go with Ant. \ud83d\udc1c\ud83d\udc40<\/p>\n

The Last 24<\/p>\n

LeBron\u2019s injury clears things up for the Lakers<\/p>\n

\u231b Acceleration. We knew the Lakers were Luka\u2019s team. LeBron\u2019s injury speeds that up<\/a>. More on the Lakers below.<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udfc0 Super subs. How do you maximize your role in the NBA? Shane Battier has your answers<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udd2e Cellar Dwellers? John Hollinger is predicting the bottom of the West. Will Dallas be left out<\/a>?<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udfc0 Brotherly love. Steph and Seth Curry swapped jerseys. It was at practice<\/a>?<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udfc0 Cleveland rocks?\u00a0Hollinger also predicts the top of the East. Can the Cavs grab the No. 1 seed again<\/a>?<\/p>\n

LeWhat\u2019s next?<\/p>\n

2025-26 season preview: It\u2019s Luka\u2019s world now<\/p>\n

Things got awkward in Los Angeles for a bit this summer, and they still might be on some level. At least for now, LeBron James seems to be in a pretty good headspace with the situation. When he picked up his $52 million option this summer, the messaging seemed to be that LeBron and the Lakers weren\u2019t totally aligned on all things present and future. This is Luka Don\u010di\u0107\u2019s franchise now.<\/p>\n

Even though LeBron is still one of the top players in the world, the Lakers are focused on all things Luka and putting a team around him. That eventually (maybe even as soon as summer 2026) won\u2019t include LeBron. So have they done enough to put a contending team around them? Is this season going to be super awkward? Let\u2019s dive in!<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Drama Meter: It\u2019s pretty high but nothing totally detrimental, as of right now. This could easily get to a 10 if Deandre Ayton is still too aloof or LeBron isn\u2019t on the same page as Luka or JJ Redick or this team gets off to a slow start. Then we\u2019ll find out how much drama there can be.<\/p>\n

Hot Seat Meter: One year into the job and his coaching career, Redick received a contract extension through 2030 with the Lakers. This seat is beyond cold.<\/p>\n

Offseason question: We still don\u2019t know! The Lakers will have a lot of roster flexibility this summer, as has been the case in most of Rob Pelinka\u2019s tenure running this franchise. LeBron doesn\u2019t seem to be retiring after this year (as of right now). And the Lakers aren\u2019t committing to him past this season (as of right now).<\/p>\n

2026 free agents: LeBron James | Rui Hachimura | Austin Reaves (player option) | Deandre Ayton (player option) | Gabe Vincent | Maxi Kleber | Marcus Smart (player option) | Jaxson Hayes<\/p>\n

Reaves will absolutely decline his option and make anywhere from $30 million to $40 million annually starting next season. Hachimura and Ayton could be in line for good paydays if they have strong years. And then there\u2019s the LeBron of it all.<\/p>\n

Expectation for this season: I don\u2019t see why they can\u2019t win 50 games again and put themselves firmly in the top six for the playoffs. From there, they have to get the correct matchup to even get out of the first round.<\/p>\n

Time to fight<\/p>\n

2025-26 season preview: Fear the Deer or Deer in Fear?<\/p>\n

The Milwaukee Bucks were already in a precarious position. The Damian Lillard-Giannis Antetokounmpo combination was not yielding championship-level results after two seasons together. There are plenty of reasons\/excuses why, but it wasn\u2019t looking good. Then Lillard ruptured his Achilles tendon, and there was pressure on the Bucks to prove to Giannis they\u2019re still the long-term place for him and Thanasis.<\/p>\n

The Bucks decided to waive and stretch Lillard, giving them some flexibility this past summer, but adding $23 million in dead cap money each year for five years. They brought in Myles Turner because of it. Turner replaces Brook Lopez, but nobody really replaces Dame (maybe Cole Anthony?). So what\u2019s next? Let\u2019s dive in!<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Drama Meter: Everybody is going to wonder aloud all season if this is going to be good enough for Giannis. And if not, does he force his way elsewhere? We already have reports of trade talks (as surface-level or in-depth as you want to believe) between Milwaukee and New York.<\/p>\n

Hot Seat Meter: Doc Rivers seems to have a great way of playing the right politics with people in charge. So I\u2019m not convinced that even a bad season will cost him his job.<\/p>\n

Offseason question: This is the question around the NBA right now. All other 29 teams would love to trade for Giannis. He\u2019s flirted with not being happy and what that could mean in the past. Every time, the Bucks have made a significant move. Do they have enough?<\/p>\n

2026 free agents: Kevin Porter Jr. (player option) | Gary Trent Jr. (player option) | Gary Harris (player option) | Taurean Prince (player option) | Jericho Sims (player option) | AJ Green | Cole Anthony | Thanasis Antetokounmpo<\/p>\n

There is roster flexibility possible moving forward, but not within the Bucks\u2019 control. Green will be someone they want to re-sign. Porter has a great chance at a big payday if he has a monster year, and they need what he can potentially do.<\/p>\n

Expectation for this season: I think this Bucks team is better than people assume. If you can make games ugly on defense and leave it up to Giannis to bully everybody on offense with shooters surrounding him, there\u2019s a winning formula. At least for regular-season games. It\u2019ll take him being Superman in the playoffs for it to work. At least Thanasis is back.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Bounce Newsletter\u00a0\u00a0| This is The Athletic\u2019s daily NBA newsletter.\u00a0Sign up here\u00a0to receive The Bounce directly in your…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":210406,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[557],"tags":[64,63,1662,7232,4620,5665,590,5548,10549,85],"class_list":["post-210405","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nba","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-denver-nuggets","tag-los-angeles-lakers","tag-milwaukee-bucks","tag-minnesota-timberwolves","tag-nba","tag-oklahoma-city-thunder","tag-san-antonio-spurs","tag-sports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210405","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=210405"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210405\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/210406"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=210405"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=210405"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=210405"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}