{"id":212393,"date":"2025-10-14T09:34:10","date_gmt":"2025-10-14T09:34:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/212393\/"},"modified":"2025-10-14T09:34:10","modified_gmt":"2025-10-14T09:34:10","slug":"queenslands-bizarre-coal-keeper-matrix-slams-the-door-on-renewables-and-everyone-will-pay-the-price","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/212393\/","title":{"rendered":"Queensland’s bizarre coal-keeper matrix slams the door on renewables, and everyone will pay the price"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

They sure know how to celebrate a win in Queensland, and there\u2019s been a few big wins in recent weeks: First the Brisbane Lions won the AFL flag, and a week later the Brisbane Broncos snatched a remarkable victory in the NRL grand final, hours after the club\u2019s women\u2019s team had won the NRLW flag.<\/p>\n

In the green energy race, however, Queensland is coming stone, motherless last, even if \u2013 according to its own treasurer and energy minister \u2013 it has the best talent (the wind and solar resources) in the country, if not the world. <\/p>\n

It remains, however, the most coal dependent state in the country, and the LNP government has condemned it to stay that way \u2013 possibly for decades. And yet the LNP seems to be just as triumphant over winning that wooden spoon as they have been with their sporting glories.<\/p>\n

None of this should be a surprise. But the brazenness of the state LNP government and its attack on renewables and its defence of a dying and polluting industry does take the breath away. Again.<\/p>\n

The LNP started off by promising to scrap the state renewable energy targets, introduced new planning laws, reneged on several wind farm approvals and \u201ccalled in\u201d others, promised $1.6 billion to keep coal operating and finally on Friday unveiled its roadmap that \u2013 based on its own numbers \u2013 shuts the door on renewables.<\/p>\n

As we reported on Friday, energy minister and treasurer David Janetzki had tried to paint the picture that the state is still open for business for large scale renewables \u2013 a \u201cpragmatic plan \u2026 for affordable, reliable and sustainable energy,\u201d he told about 500 energy industry people gathered at Brisbane convention centre on Friday.<\/p>\n

But his own speech, and the roadmap document itself, betray his words.<\/p>\n

All the new capacity that the LNP says will be built between now and 2030 (6.5 gigawatts) is either already under construction, contracted by Rio Tinto to replace the state\u2019s biggest coal generator at Gladstone, or underwritten by the federal government\u2019s Capacity Investment Scheme.<\/p>\n

The LNP\u2019s own numbers indicate that it expects zero \u2013 yes zero \u2013 other new wind and solar capacity to be built in that time. <\/p>\n

And when new wind and solar capacity is built, 4.5 GW in the five years from 2030 out to 2035 according to its own modelling, it will be far away and out of sight, in the state\u2019s north west where the first stage of the Copperstring transmission line will be built and is expected to be complete in 2032.<\/p>\n

The scale of the destruction is illustrated by QCC\u2019s Dave Copeman, who notes that the LNP\u2019s roadmap assumes eight gigawatts (GW) less wind capacity over the next decade (to 2035) than Labor\u2019s Queensland Energy Jobs Plan, and a whopping 13 GW less than the Australian Energy Market Operator\u2019s Integrated System Plan.<\/p>\n

It also assumes 8 GW less large scale solar than the QEJP, and 5 GW less than the ISP. <\/p>\n

\u201cThis Energy Roadmap is designed to pander to fossil fuel loving party members and donors, it\u2019s not the sensible plan ordinary Queenslanders need to manage and replace Queensland\u2019s struggling coal-fired power stations,\u201d Copeman says.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Treasurer\u2019s savings claims crumble under the slightest bit of scrutiny. Their modelling doesn\u2019t factor in that we have to replace coal at some point, and completely ignores costs associated with burning coal and gas for longer. It\u2019s a nonsensical number designed to hide that this is a plan built on ideology, not economics.\u201d<\/p>\n

It will have an impact on all levels of society, and not just in the Sunshine State. In Queensland, it will mean higher wholesale electricity prices, and higher bills, although Janetzki indicated that the government is already scrambling to make payments to reduce the burden on consumers.<\/p>\n

\u201cMake no mistake, when coal and gas win, consumers pay,\u201d Smart Energy Council CEO John Grimes says. \u201cThis energy roadmap will increase Queensland consumers\u2019 energy bills, and will damage the national capacity to respond to climate change for decades to come.\u201d<\/p>\n

It means that the state\u2019s emissions reduction target \u2013 75 per cent cut by 2035 \u2013 is all but dead in the water. If you can\u2019t green your grid, you\u2019ve got buckleys of achieving widespread emissions reduction in the rest of the economy. Janetzki is not ready to admit that in public, but the impact is obvious.<\/p>\n

It will impact Australia\u2019s ability to meet its newly released 2035 emissions reduction target, and it makes it even more difficult for federal energy and climate minister Chris Bowen to achieve his 82 per cent renewables target. It may require a rethink of the ISP\u2019s main step change scenario.<\/p>\n

The appalling irony of this is that Janetzki, and much of the LNP, know that their claims, and their strategy are completely bogus, and contradicted by their very own plans and what\u2019s happening around them.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s look at Rio Tinto and Gladstone, in central Queensland, the heart of the state\u2019s industrial and fossil fuel base, and where Rio operates the giant aluminium smelters and associated refineries, and is the biggest energy consumer in the state.<\/p>\n

You\u2019d have to assume Rio Tinto knows a bit about energy \u2013 about economics, about engineering, and about costs. And it does. And its assessment is crystal clear \u2013 those smelters and refineries have no future beyond the end of the decade if they have to rely on coal. <\/p>\n

So Rio has taken a systematic approach and contracted multiple gigawatts of giant wind, solar and battery storage to replace that ageing coal fired power station.<\/p>\n

The one interesting piece of Janetzki\u2019s roadmap \u2013 support for a gas generator and a grid upgrade around Gladstone \u2013 are important pieces of Rio Tinto\u2019s energy puzzle, and it seems pretty clear that it has the clout to bring pressure to bear on the government to support its plans.<\/p>\n

Rio Tinto is saying it can make this transition in just a few years \u2013 it has signalled the early closure of Gladstone in 2029 and will have the wind, solar and battery projects operating by then.<\/p>\n

If that\u2019s the case, then why the hell can the LNP not see that the rest of the state can and should do so as well, if not by 2035 as Labor wanted to do, then at least by 2040.<\/p>\n

Look, for example, at what it the LNP is proposing in the state\u2019s north-west. Janetzki talks with some wonder about the prospect of unlocking half a trillion dollars worth of mineral riches in the region between Townsville and Mt Isa.<\/p>\n

Is he going to be providing electricity to this vast province of riches with coal, gas or nuclear? Of course not \u2013 just like Rio\u2019s massive industrial assets, it will be based largely around wind, solar and battery storage, and some firming capacity, as its own modelling reveals.<\/p>\n

Janetzki is so excited about the the prospect that he has even agreed to fund the creation of renewable based micro-grids to support those new mines while the government wrestles with the soaring cost of new transmission for the western half of Copperstring.<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s about the last place where the roadmap makes sense. The government has dumped the coal closure timelines announced by Labor \u2013 they were to be all gone by 2035, although government ownership would allow the flexibility much envied in NSW and Victoria should the rollout of wind, solar and transmission be too slow.<\/p>\n

In its place, Janetzki has outlined a mysterious \u201cmatrix\u201d. It appears to show that each of the state\u2019s remaining coal generators, even the ones that regularly explode or fail in the summer heat, are expected to run until the end of their \u201ctechnical life\u201d, and then some.<\/p>\n

\"\"\/Coal closures under the Queensland energy roadmap.<\/p>\n

Janetzski must know that this is nonsense, both from an engineering and investment basis. He reportedly pushed for firm dates, but the ultra conservative wing of the LNP wouldn\u2019t have a bar of it, and premier David Crisafulli is seen as a fence sitter and would not back his treasurer in the face of the regional right.<\/p>\n

\u201cQueensland\u2019s coal power stations are increasingly unreliable as they age. They were offline a staggering 78 times over the last summer period because they keep breaking down,\u201d Copeman says.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Government\u2019s announcement of a $400 million renewable energy and gas investment fund is less than we estimate it would cost to extend the life of just one of Queensland\u2019s failing coal power stations by a year.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Treasurer\u2019s savings claims crumble under the slightest bit of scrutiny. Their modelling doesn\u2019t factor in that we have to replace coal at some point, and completely ignores costs associated with burning coal and gas for longer. It\u2019s a nonsensical number designed to hide that this is a plan built on ideology, not economics.\u201d<\/p>\n

In April, 2023, I had the privilege of attending the last day of operations at the ageing Liddell coal fired power station in the NSW Hunter Valley. How that 50-year-old facility had been kept going by its operators is simply beyond belief.<\/p>\n

But they cared for it and they kept it going. It was their workplace for decades, and the centre of their community, and when it finally came time to switch off the last unit \u2013 it didn\u2019t want to go and had to be forced out \u2013 there were tears all round.<\/p>\n

Read: \u201cShe didn\u2019t want to go:\u201d Tears and hugs as oldest coal generator shuts down for last time<\/a><\/p>\n

But as much as they loved that machine, and were proud of their careers, the workers knew that technology was moving on. They wanted a transition plan, and from AGL they got one. <\/p>\n

From the LNP all they get told is that coal is the future, from the sort of politicians you would imagine \u2013 when the transition from horse-drawn carriages to the first motor cars was occurring \u2013 were holding a handful of hay and stuffing it into the petrol tank, and declaring look, it doesn\u2019t work!<\/p>\n

At least the people of Queensland have twigged, They are installing and upgrading rooftop solar systems in record numbers, and leading the charge for home batteries \u2013 knowing that its the best protection against soaring price and power outages.<\/p>\n

And as that grows \u2013 and the LNP has left its rooftop solar modelling largely unchanged from the QEJP and the ISP at around 13 GW by 2035 \u2013 you will wonder just how these ageing coal plants are going to be able to dance around the solar duck curve.<\/p>\n

AEMO, it should be pointed out, has made it very very clear what keeps it up at night, and nervous in the summer heat, is the prospect of large, inflexible, ageing, increasingly unreliable thermal generators failing just when they might be needed most.<\/p>\n

Janetzki says that the LNP energy roadmap is about economics, engineering, and consumer needs.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s quite right. But it\u2019s not the wholesale embrace of those virtues as he claims, it\u2019s the outright rejection of them, cheered on by the vested interests and conservative media. <\/p>\n

The vast majority of the attendees on Friday left crestfallen and disappointed, if not surprised. It\u2019s just so damn tragic that the LNP was never really expected to do anything else. But we will all the price, in one form or another.<\/p>\n

If you wish to support independent media, and accurate information, please consider making a one off donation or becoming a regular supporter of Renew Economy. Your support is invaluable.<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Giles Parkinson is founder and editor-in-chief of Renew Economy<\/a>, and founder and editor of its EV-focused sister site The Driven<\/a>. He is the co-host of the weekly Energy Insiders Podcast<\/a>. Giles has been a journalist for more than 40 years and is a former deputy editor of the Australian Financial Review. You can find him on LinkedIn and on Twitter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"They sure know how to celebrate a win in Queensland, and there\u2019s been a few big wins in…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":212394,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[64,63,75,128],"class_list":["post-212393","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-environment","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-environment","tag-science"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/212393","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=212393"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/212393\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/212394"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=212393"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=212393"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=212393"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}