Last year\u2019s world champion Jorge Martin (Aprilia), his 2025 successor Marc Marquez (Ducati), 2018 Australian Grand Prix winner Maverick Vinales (KTM) and \u2013 potentially \u2013 last year\u2019s Moto2 champion Ai Ogura (Aprilia) will all be missing from the Phillip Island weekend, the quartet recovering from injuries that are either new, recurring or lingering.<\/p>\n
MORE MOTOGP NEWS<\/p>\n
BAGNAIA\u2019S BUMPY RIDE<\/a> Why Ducati star went from first to worst, and what happens at Phillip Island<\/p>\n CHAMP SIDELINED<\/a> Marquez avoids surgery, but will miss Australia<\/p>\n With many of their rivals who feature prominently in the top 10 of this year\u2019s riders\u2019 standings either out of form or with no previous experience of fighting for the biggest prizes at the Island, the only guarantee is that this year\u2019s running of the Australian Grand Prix looks to be the most open in memory. <\/p>\n That\u2019s not for debate; what is open to conjecture is the identity of the rider who succeeds Marc Marquez as the Australian Grand Prix winner<\/a> this Sunday afternoon.<\/p>\n Here, Fox Sports looks at who is missing and why at the Island, and the five riders with the strongest possibilities to step into the void left by the seven-time MotoGP champion\u2019s absence.<\/p>\n Marquez won in Australia last October, but his absence this weekend makes for a race of uncertainty. (Photo by Robert Cianflone\/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n INJURIES FOR SOME, OPPORTUNITIES FOR OTHERS<\/p>\n By the time you get to October and round 19 of a 22-round MotoGP season, there\u2019s always a chance the regular line-up of 22 riders could look a little different with the bruising nature of ever-expanding calendars; add another 22 race starts at every round since the advent of sprint races since 2023, and more manic first laps leads to more peril, and a longer list of absentees. <\/p>\n The way MotoGP contests unfold in the modern era \u2013 forthright risk-taking early on before races become more processional and strategic as riders balance tyre pressure boundaries with riding in the wake of a rival whose bike is creating dirty air through its assortment of aerodynamic excrescences \u2013 only adds to the early mayhem. <\/p>\n Of the four big names either confirmed as or suspected to be missing in Australia this weekend, three of them were injured in first-lap incidents. <\/p>\n Aprilia\u2019s Ogura \u2013 the one rider on this list with an asterisk \u2013 has missed the past two Grands Prix in Japan and Indonesia after a massive 260km\/h crash on the opening lap at Misano for the San Marino Grand Prix, which left him with \u2013 miraculously, given the speed of the spill \u2013 with right hand and wrist injuries, two body parts you\u2019d like to be working as they should around Phillip Island\u2019s high-speed 4.445km layout. <\/p>\n Unsurprisingly, given the violence of his crash, Ogura must pass a medical check at Phillip Island on Thursday to be declared fit to compete. <\/p>\n Marquez Out after Horrifying crash | 01:35<\/p>\n Definitely out are three other riders who \u2013 if fully fit and available \u2013 would have claims to victory at the Island; after all, they were the entire front row of last year\u2019s Australian Grand Prix grid. <\/p>\n Ogura\u2019s Aprilia stablemate and 2024 MotoGP champion Martin fractured his right collarbone \u2013 his fourth major injury of a horror title defence that never really got out of first gear \u2013 after he crashed on the first lap of the sprint race in Japan<\/a>, the rider who has sat on pole in Australia for the past three years and owns the all-time circuit record lap (1min 27.246secs set in qualifying in 2023) out of action. <\/p>\n Four-time Australian Grand Prix winner Marquez, who succeeded Martin as world champion on that same Motegi weekend \u2013 will miss Australia and Malaysia after fracturing his right shoulder<\/a> after being taken out by Martin\u2019s teammate Marco Bezzecchi on the first lap of the Indonesian GP, while KTM\u2019s Vinales \u2013 the 2018 Phillip Island winner for Yamaha \u2013 remains sidelined after the dislocated and fractured left shoulder from a crash in a wet German Grand Prix qualifying session in July has lingered.<\/p>\n Vinales is always a rider liable to spring an Australian surprise, while Martin is Phillip Island\u2019s fastest man, and Marquez the most successful of the current crop. It\u2019s a huge hole to fill but, equally, one that only adds to this weekend\u2019s intrigue.<\/p>\n The winner this Sunday, then, can\u2019t come from that talented trio, and almost certainly won\u2019t from their injury replacements Lorenzo Savadori (for Martin), Michele Pirro (for Marquez) or Pol Espargaro (for Vinales) respectively. <\/p>\n But it might be \u2026<\/p>\n FRANCESCO BAGNAIA (DUCATI)<\/p>\n 2025 season: 274 points (third), 2 Grand Prix wins, 1 sprint win, 14 total podiums, 2 pole positions, 2 fastest laps. <\/p>\n Phillip Island record (MotoGP only): 4 starts, 3 podiums, best result 2nd (2023). <\/p>\n Wait, what? The rider who finished dead-last in the sprint race at the most recent round in Indonesia and crashed \u2013 again from last place \u2013 in the Grand Prix 24 hours later? A chance in Australia? <\/p>\n Potentially, yes. Because \u2013 to twist a phrase \u2013 if you\u2019re only as good as your second-last race, Bagnaia is pretty damned good. <\/p>\n In Japan, the round before Mandalika, Bagnaia\u2019s nostalgic dominance<\/a> \u2013 pole, sprint win, Grand Prix win, led every lap \u2013 was very 2024-spec \u2018Pecco\u2019, when Marquez was a mere stablemate on a 2023-spec Ducati that wasn\u2019t a title threat, and with the Italian on a bike he gelled with to such a degree that he won 11 of the 20 Grands Prix. <\/p>\n MORE MOTOGP NEWS<\/p>\n \u2018SO MUCH BETTER\u2019 <\/a> How rookie demolished the rest to write name in record books<\/p>\n TALKING PTS<\/a>: First-time winner\u2019s focus, Marquez\u2019s \u2018sad\u2019 return to Spain<\/p>\n The 2025 season \u2013 as has been well-documented \u2013 has largely been painful mentally and poor mathematically<\/a>, but Bagnaia has always been fast in Australia on MotoGP machinery. The best result of his 2019 rookie season by far was fourth place at the Island, and once MotoGP came back to Australia after the pandemic, Bagnaia has never been off the podium, and always inside the top five in qualifying. <\/p>\n Predicting anything Bagnaia might do this season is a fool\u2019s errand, but with Marquez and Martin at home and the riders near him in the championship standings all having question-marks over their Australian prowess, the Italian might surprise. <\/p>\n It wouldn\u2019t be shocking if Bagnaia was then nowhere in Malaysia the following Sunday, but on a track where he\u2019s been rapid from day one in the premier class, a big result isn\u2019t a small chance.<\/p>\n Will Bagnaia be dominant like Japan or devastated like Indonesia this weekend? (Photo by Mirco Lazzari gp\/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images<\/p>\n FABIO DI GIANNANTONIO (DUCATI)<\/p>\n 2025 season: 191 points (7th), six total podiums, best Grand Prix result 3rd (twice), best sprint result 2nd, best qualifying 2nd. <\/p>\n Phillip Island record (MotoGP only): 3 starts, 1 podium, best result 3rd (2023). <\/p>\n If Bagnaia isn\u2019t the fastest Ducati at the Island this year, there\u2019s a good reason to think compatriot Di Giannantonio might be. <\/p>\n Campaigning a GP25 like Bagnaia has this year, \u2018Diggia\u2019 has blown hot and cold, and trails VR46 Ducati teammate Franco Morbidelli \u2013 on a year-old Ducati \u2013 by 16 points in the standings. But when he\u2019s been good, he\u2019s been very good<\/a> \u2013 and Australia is one of his annual sweet spots. <\/p>\n Di Giannantonio took his first premier-class podium in Australia in 2023, then stormed through from 12th on the grid last October to fourth after bulldozing his way into the top six inside 10 laps. The longer Australian races go, the faster he gets \u2013 he took third on the final lap two years ago, while last year, his fastest lap of the race came with tyres that had already done 25 laps and was just a tenth of a second slower than race-winner Marquez. <\/p>\n The 27-year-old hasn\u2019t had a Grand Prix podium since Mugello in round nine, but scored three straight sprint podiums from three starts inside the front two rows of the grid from Hungary to San Marino. If he gets Saturday qualifying right, he\u2019ll be right in the mix. <\/p>\n MARCO BEZZECCHI (APRILIA)<\/p>\n 2025 season: 254 points (4th), 1 Grand Prix win, 2 sprint wins, 10 total podiums, 3 pole positions, 2 fastest laps. <\/p>\n Phillip Island record (MotoGP only): 3 starts, best result 4th (2022).<\/p>\n With Martin in and out of the line-up, Bezzecchi has been Aprilia\u2019s shining light this season, and went toe-to-toe with Marquez as recently as three rounds ago at Misano, where he won the sprint<\/a> and finished second in the Grand Prix. <\/p>\n \u2018Bez\u2019 has race-winning speed on a strong bike, but a pair of big recent crashes \u2013 and his machinery \u2013 might be a bridge too far this weekend. <\/p>\n The 26-year-old was the unfortunate victim of Martin\u2019s out-of-control start in the Japan sprint, heavy contact between the Aprilia teammates leaving Bezzecchi with a right leg where \u201cthe muscle is completely full of blood\u201d. <\/p>\n![](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/1760217130_889_poster-fallback.png\"\/)
<\/p>\n