{"id":214916,"date":"2025-10-15T09:47:16","date_gmt":"2025-10-15T09:47:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/214916\/"},"modified":"2025-10-15T09:47:16","modified_gmt":"2025-10-15T09:47:16","slug":"unemployment-going-higher-unless-interest-rates-go-lower","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/214916\/","title":{"rendered":"Unemployment going higher unless interest rates go lower"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The NAB survey out yesterday was not very encouraging.<\/p>\n<p>The pent-up demand released by RBA rate cuts delivered a significant increase in consumer expenditure in the June quarter.<\/p>\n<p>However, business investment stayed low, indicating that companies were not inclined to make significant investments until they see more proof of a revival in domestic demand.<\/p>\n<p>Businesses are still wary in yesterday\u2019s NAB survey<\/p>\n<p>The headline business conditions index remained steady at 8, the highest level since about mid-2024. This implies that circumstances were only somewhat better than they had been in the past.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/1-16.png\" width=\"896\" height=\"658\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>Under the bonnet, things were still soft, with the employment index falling by 2 points to 3, implying that businesses are in no hurry to expand their workforce.<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/2-10.png\" width=\"898\" height=\"660\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Forward orders were also weak, and inventories were quite high.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>I put this stuttering rebound down to two factors.<\/p>\n<p>First, the new shock underway in energy prices is sapping consumer spending power and making households doubt further interest rate relief.<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/8-17.png\" width=\"911\" height=\"670\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Second, the fiscal spigot has been tightened.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Australian-budget-deficits.png\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p>And it was very employment-centric.<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Filled-jobs-by-sector.png\" width=\"660\" height=\"578\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" alt=\"filled jobs by sector\"\/><\/p>\n<p>With Indian Albo pumping immigration again, I am skeptical that the private sector will deliver enough jobs to soak up supply.<\/p>\n<p>Unemployment is going higher unless interest rates go lower.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The NAB survey out yesterday was not very encouraging. The pent-up demand released by RBA rate cuts delivered&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":214917,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,99,164],"class_list":["post-214916","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/214916","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=214916"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/214916\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/214917"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=214916"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=214916"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=214916"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}