My Week 6 picks went 15-15 overall and included correct cover picks for Carolina, Cincinnati, Atlanta and the New York Giants. Here are my Week 7 picks.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m giving two picks for each game: One is which team I predict to win outright, the other is which team I predict will cover the point spread. Each pick has a confidence level of 1-10, with 10 being the most confident. For more information on the pick methodology, check out the Week 1 edition of this series<\/a>.<\/p>\n Keep in mind that since the idea here is to make high-percentage plays, my picks tend to lean chalk-heavy. I am also very judicious in giving out higher confidence level scores.<\/p>\n If you want to see my confidence picks ranked 1-15 (pick to win), scroll to the table at the bottom.<\/p>\n Here is how my Week 6 picks<\/a> fared, along with my current season record.<\/p>\n Overall picks to win: 7-8 in Week 6 (60-32-1 for the season) Now let\u2019s get into the Week 7 selections.<\/p>\n All odds referenced are courtesy of BetMGM as of publish time.<\/p>\n Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals<\/p>\n It\u2019s tough to find an area where the Bengals are superior to the Steelers. Pittsburgh may have the best rush defense in the NFL; it has superb pass blocking and pass rushing. The Steelers also have momentum in this series. They have won three of the past four games against the Bengals and three straight games in Cincinnati. The biggest negative is that this is a Thursday night road game for Pittsburgh. But all that does is lower my confidence level a bit.<\/p>\n Pick to win: Pittsburgh (Confidence level: 7) The big question for Los Angeles is what its offense looks like if Puka Nacua misses this game due to his ankle injury. Davante Adams can take up some of that production slack<\/a>. These teams will be mostly evenly matched if Brian Thomas Jr. can equal Adams\u2019 production. The wild card is pass rush. Los Angeles has strong numbers here, while Jacksonville has only four sacks in the past four games. That\u2019s enough for me to take the Rams for the win. I\u2019ll take Jacksonville for the cover.<\/p>\n Pick to win: Los Angeles (CL: 2) Patrick Mahomes has skyrocketed back to being the NFL MVP odds leader<\/a>. Those odds could go even more in his favor with Rashee Rice returning to the Chiefs\u2019 lineup. Kansas City has major stat advantages in pass blocking, rush defense and pass coverage. That should lead to another interception-filled day for Geno Smith. The Raiders will also be without Brock Bowers for this game. I\u2019ll take the Chiefs for both the outright win and cover.<\/p>\n Pick to win: Kansas City (CL: 9) The Bears don\u2019t have great special teams numbers, but their figures are much better than the Saints. New Orleans rates last in special teams EPA since Week 3 by a wide margin. The Bears have a more dangerous passing game even if DJ Moore can\u2019t return from his Week 6 groin injury. Chicago also has better pass coverage and is the home team. It\u2019s enough for me to pick the Bears for the win and a very close cover.<\/p>\n Pick to win: Chicago (CL: 4) This is one of the toughest games on the Week 7 board. Miami has what should be a superior offense, but the Dolphins are also dealing with what looks like more infighting between players and coaches. That\u2019s not a good trend when going on the road to face a talented Cleveland defense that is better than its numbers suggest. Those nullify each other. There isn\u2019t a nullifying element for the Browns\u2019 offensive ineptitude<\/a>. As bad as Miami can be, they have a lot more offensive talent. I\u2019m picking the Dolphins in a road upset.<\/p>\n Pick to win: Miami (CL: 3)
Picks to win with 1-5 confidence: 3-8 (37-26-1)
Picks to win with 6-10 confidence: 4-0 (23-6)
\nOverall to cover the spread: 8-7 (46-44-3)
Cover the spread picks with 1-5 confidence: 8-5 (40-36-2)
Cover the spread picks with 6-10 confidence: 0-2 (6-8-1)<\/p>\n
\nPick to cover the spread:\u00a0Pittsburgh (Confidence level: 6)
\nLos Angeles Rams (-3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)<\/p>\n
\nPick to cover:\u00a0Jacksonville (CL: 2)
\nLas Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-12)<\/p>\n
\nPick to cover:\u00a0Kansas City (CL: 6)
\nNew Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (-5.5)<\/p>\n
\nPick to cover:\u00a0Chicago (CL: 1)
\nMiami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-3)<\/p>\n
\nPick to cover:\u00a0Miami (CL: 5)
\nNew England Patriots (-7) at Tennessee Titans<\/p>\n