Once a week during the NFL season, I dig into the pass-game data and try to figure out what trends matter at wide receiver, tight end and running back. Let\u2019s open up the spreadsheets and see what we find.<\/p>\n
The Diontae Johnson Award watch<\/p>\n
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Raiders<\/p>\n
Stefon Diggs, WR, Patriots<\/p>\n
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Now that Tetairoa McMilan has broken through at the goal line, the Diontae Johnson Award (all the targets, none of the touchdowns) is up for grabs. Let\u2019s look at the three players currently jostling for position.<\/p>\n
Jeudy is probably shipwrecked so long as the Browns don\u2019t have a real quarterback. Dillon Gabriel isn\u2019t the answer, and my hopes aren\u2019t high for Shedeur Sanders, either. Jeudy\u2019s never really been a touchdown source anyway \u2014 his breakout last season only had four spikes, and for his career we\u2019re looking at 15 touchdowns in 80 games. His success rate is down to 33.3% this year along with a catch rate of 41.7% \u2014 those are both career lows. It\u2019s charitable to call Jeudy a WR4 right now.<\/p>\n
At least with Meyers, his efficiency stats are more stable \u2014 he\u2019s had a static catch rate and success rate for his three years in Las Vegas. But we\u2019ve seen two games without Brock Bowers, and Meyers has not capitalized \u2014 a paltry 10 targets and a return of 8-71-0. He\u2019s been targeted six times in the red zone for the year, with just one completion. This comes off as a Geno Smith problem \u2014 while Smith consistently matriculated the ball down the field<\/a> in his Seattle days, too, the red area was always his bugaboo. Throws and decisions are generally harder where the field gets condensed, and some players always seem to struggle there.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n Diggs has been a fantasy winner just once this year, the WR5 smash against Buffalo two weeks ago. Otherwise, he hasn\u2019t cracked the top 20 all season<\/a>. The Patriots are not going out of their way to feature Diggs \u2014 he\u2019s merely holding 21.4% of the targets, and Hunter Henry and Kayshon Boutte have run more routes than Diggs. In fact, Diggs hasn\u2019t played more than two-thirds of the snaps in any game this year.<\/p>\n This type of gradual onboarding made sense in September, when the Patriots perhaps wanted to be cautious with Diggs after last year\u2019s torn ACL, but now that we\u2019re in the middle of October, perhaps the modest usage is more signal than noise. Meandering through his age-31 season, Diggs no longer has an exciting ceiling, even tied to rising star Drake Maye.<\/p>\n Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks<\/p>\n JSN has the yellow jersey among receivers, the presumed No. 1 overall target now that Puka Nacua is hurt. It\u2019s been a glorious ride \u2014 JSN has been the WR7, WR3 and WR3 in three of his last four games.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n What\u2019s funny is Smith-Njigba is getting it done despite Seattle having the lowest pass rate in the league, a modest 50.3%. But when the Seahawks look to throw, JSN is always the first read \u2014 his market share of 36.1% is easily first in the NFL. When Sam Darnold targets Smith-Njigba this year, the result is a juicy 134.2 rating and 12.4 YPA. Even when opponents know what’s coming, they can’t stop it.<\/p>\n Smith-Njigba was not dominant right away when he turned pro in 2023, but this has all the signs of a classic Year 3 breakout. Enjoy the ride.<\/p>\n