Have you heard about Big Pat\u2019s back? You must have by now. The eyes and ears of the cricketing world are zeroed in on a locus of about 10 inches of Pat Cummins\u2019s lumbar region. Hushed whispers about the Australia Test captain\u2019s \u201cstress injury\u201d after his side\u2019s tour to the West Indies in July became a rumbling concern as the weeks passed and there was no reassuring statement from the Cummins camp. Ideally it would have been delivered by the man himself with a megawatt smile, just letting everyone know that he was locked in for a full part in the Ashes series.<\/p>\n
By contrast, this week a more circumspect Cummins put his chances of playing at Perth<\/a> in the first Test on 21 November as \u201cprobably less likely than likely\u201d.<\/p>\n Things may well change in the next six weeks but if they don\u2019t then it is a tremendous shame for him personally and for the wider cricketing public as the Ashes is shorn, to some degree, of one of the greatest fast bowlers in cricket history. If he does manage to get on the park at some stage then it remains to be seen how quickly he can get back to his best.<\/p>\n Cummins\u2019s overall record in Tests already puts him in the conversation as an all-time great \u2013 309 wickets from 71 matches. On average his wickets cost a little more than 22 runs apiece and he gets one every 47 balls: \u201cserious numbers\u201d is believed to be the correct statistical expression.<\/p>\n To say England are in a better position to regain the Ashes, or even win a Test in Australia for the first time in 14 years, without having to face Cummins goes without saying. Or not. As various pundits, journalists, players, former players and social media slingers have made that exact point this week with varying levels of sympathy, a few caveats and something bordering on unfettered glee: zero Test wins in 14 years will do that to some.<\/p>\n No bowler gives England\u2019s top order more reason to panic than Cummins. He has 91 wickets against England in 19 matches. No one has dismissed Joe Root more times in Tests.<\/p>\n Who\u2019s likely to replace him? Scott Boland. Well, there\u2019s nothing to fear there then surely? England laid Boland and his redoubtable low-mid-80s seam to waste at home in the 2023 Ashes series. Knocking him off his nagging line and length, Boland went at nearly five runs an over and picked up only two wickets in the couple of matches he played.<\/p>\n Root reverse\u2011ramped Boland for six in the first Test at Edgbaston, a shot that seemed to symbolise England\u2019s new way and contrasted dramatically with how Root and the rest of England\u2019s batters had approached Boland in Australia a couple of years earlier. In the 2021-22 Ashes Boland did for six English batters as the local lad ran amok in the most bashful way imaginable on his Test debut in front of a delirious home crowd at the MCG<\/a>.<\/p>\n