{"id":219373,"date":"2025-10-17T04:32:13","date_gmt":"2025-10-17T04:32:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/219373\/"},"modified":"2025-10-17T04:32:13","modified_gmt":"2025-10-17T04:32:13","slug":"blind-rba-trashes-jobs-market-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/219373\/","title":{"rendered":"Blind RBA trashes jobs market again"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Under progressive leadership regimes, the Australian central bank has become ever more corrupt and unable to speak truth to power, especially when it comes to the single most important macroeconomic input into the economy: immigration.<\/p>\n<p>Just this week, we had another analysis from RBA boffin Sarah Hunter, which refused to acknowledge the obvious: the immigration-led economy does neither productivity nor wage rises.<\/p>\n<p>This leaves it struggling to sustain an inflation pulse. Goldman wrapped up her speech:<\/p>\n<p>RBA Assistant Governor (Economic Group) Hunter has delivered a speech and media interview highlighting recent RBA downgrades to forecasts for productivity growth, potential growth, and sustainable wages growth \u2013 alongside concerns about upside risks to the RBA\u2019s inflation forecasts. <\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>Dr Hunter\u2019s remarks also linked a re-strengthening in prices for market-services in August to the RBA\u2019s view that the labour market remains \u201ca little tight\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Taken together, we view the Assistant Governor\u2019s comments as confirming a less dovish tone at the RBA over recent weeks. <\/p>\n<p>While Dr Hunter stressed that the RBA is highly data dependent, her remarks suggest upgrades to the RBA\u2019s growth &amp; inflation forecasts at November\u2019s Statement on Monetary Policy. <\/p>\n<p>There was also little focus on downside scenarios to the labour market or inflation or the clear easing biase mbedded in the RBA\u2019s standing forecasts (from August). <\/p>\n<p>The productivity revisions also suggest the RBA\u2019s reaction function will be both less sensitive to weaker economic growth and more sensitive to firm wages.<\/p>\n<p>What firm wages? What tight labour market? Leading indicators are falling, and wages will have a two-handle before long as Indian Albo floods the Labor market with cheap imports again.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/2-14.png\" width=\"933\" height=\"1000\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Just as jobs-centric fiscal spending falls away:<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/1760675530_792_Filled-jobs-by-sector.png\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Q3 inflation did not come from wages. It came from a new energy shock spilling into everything except wages.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/8-17.png\" width=\"911\" height=\"670\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p>The refusal to factor the immigration and labour supply shock into modeling leaves the RBA forever raising unemployment and undershooting the inflation target.<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/1760675532_332_RBA-unemployment-vs-forecast.png\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>For twelve long years, the RBA has persecuted Aussie workers with its productivity claptrap because it refuses to discuss the macroeconomic impact of immigration.<\/p>\n<p><img src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/rbawagesforecasts.jpg\" width=\"585\" height=\"346\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p>In fact, without reference to the actual economic model it is managing, the RBA refuses to discuss anything about the future anymore. Goldman.<\/p>\n<p>Advertisement<\/p>\n<p>Governor Bullock also characterised current monetary policy settings as \u201ca little on the tight side, but not that much\u201d and revisited her reluctance to give forward guidance (describing herself as \u201cgun shy\u201d following the experience of her predecessor Dr. Lowe)<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s not rocket surgery. Weak productivity does not convert to stronger inflation if a permanent labour supply shock causes it.<\/p>\n<p>That is the immigration-led economy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Under progressive leadership regimes, the Australian central bank has become ever more corrupt and unable to speak truth&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":219374,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[64,63,99,164],"class_list":["post-219373","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-au","tag-australia","tag-business","tag-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/219373","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=219373"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/219373\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/219374"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=219373"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=219373"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=219373"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}