{"id":224321,"date":"2025-10-19T04:22:09","date_gmt":"2025-10-19T04:22:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/224321\/"},"modified":"2025-10-19T04:22:09","modified_gmt":"2025-10-19T04:22:09","slug":"game-over-agi-is-not-imminent-and-llms-are-not-the-royal-road-to-getting-there","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/224321\/","title":{"rendered":"Game over. AGI is not imminent, and LLMs are not the royal road to getting there."},"content":{"rendered":"

First slowly, and then all at once, dreams of LLMs bringing us to the cusp of AGI have fallen apart. The last few months have been devastating:<\/p>\n

\u2022 June, 2025: the Apple reasoning paper confirmed that even with \u201creasoning\u201d, LLMs still can\u2019t solve distribution shift<\/a>, the core Achille\u2019s heel in neural networks that I have been writing about for nearly 30 years. Several other papers, include the ASU \u201cMirage<\/a>\u201c paper quickly extended this finding.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2022 August, 2025: GPT-5 came late and fell short<\/a>. <\/p>\n

\u2022 September, 2025: Turing Award winner Rich Sutton, known best for RL and his \u201cbitter lesson\u201d thanked me for my critiques of LLMs and agreed. Seismic. (And astonishingly gracious!)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2022 October, 2025: Andrej Karpathy, a widely-respected machine learning expert who once ran AI for Tesla and twice worked for OpenAI, just said agents aren\u2019t anywhere close, and that AGI is a decade away.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2022 October, 2025: Nobel Laureate and Google DeepMind Sir Demis Hassabis just blew up some wildly overhyped claims from OpenAI\u2019s Sebastien Bubeck about math. Researcher\/Hyperbolic Labs CTO Yuchen Jin explains:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Embarrassing indeed.<\/p>\n

LLMs have their place, but anyone expecting the current paradigm to be close to AGI is delusional.<\/p>\n

Gary Marcus tried to tell you for years that this moment would come for years. Do consider reading his 2020 article Next Decade in AI<\/a>, for an alternative strategy that increasingly looks prescient. <\/p>\n

And please consider joining almost 85,000 others in subscribing to the newsletter that told you so much that has proven true, long before it was fashionable.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"First slowly, and then all at once, dreams of LLMs bringing us to the cusp of AGI have…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":224322,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[256,254,255,64,63,105],"class_list":{"0":"post-224321","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-artificial-intelligence","8":"tag-ai","9":"tag-artificial-intelligence","10":"tag-artificialintelligence","11":"tag-au","12":"tag-australia","13":"tag-technology"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/224321","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=224321"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/224321\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/224322"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=224321"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=224321"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=224321"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}