When Jazz basketball returns this week, it ushers back into our collective attention a number of pretty fun story arcs.<\/p>\n
And honestly, by virtue of the Jazz\u2019s offseason moves, this season will be the most earnest attempt yet at a true youth movement \u2014 and a chance to explore the potential of nine recent draftees and a one-time All-Star.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s one writer\u2019s power ranking of the most interesting subplots about the Jazz as they prepare for on-court action with yet another young group of players.<\/p>\n
\u200d<\/p>\n
His Airiousness<\/p>\n
It\u2019s pretty unfair to heap this kind of pressure on a kid who just barely turned 19, but the reality is that nothing about this season will reveal as much about the club\u2019s medium-term future as Ace Bailey\u2019s trajectory.<\/p>\n
He doesn\u2019t even have to look super amazing as a rookie, or add a lot of winning value (something precious few rookies do). Rather, if during the grind of an 82-game season there are moments of brilliance that hint at a path to some degree of stardom down the line, then the future starts to feel instantly more promising.<\/p>\n
Plenty of talented and toolsy, 6\u20198\u2033 to 6\u201910\u201d\u00a0wing stars didn\u2019t have amazing rookie seasons. Some Bailey\u2019s predraft comps included Paul\u00a0George, Tracy McGrady, Michael Porter Jr. and Rashard Lewis. None of those guys averaged double figures in their debut seasons or made an all-rookie team, and only MPJ\u00a0shot particularly well out of the gate. So there\u2019s really no floor he needs to hit to preserve the possibility of turning out special. It\u2019s just about finding moments in which the raw talent just can\u2019t be ignored, even if it those moments don\u2019t add up to great stats or wins right away.<\/p>\n
If he has enough of those moments, it\u2019s not hard to start getting tempted to think about the Jazz\u2019s future differently. They already have one impact player on the roster, and they should be poised to draft early again next June. So any indication that Ace is on his way as a foundational piece means the Jazz might have their new core identified sooner than most folks imagine.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s why Bailey will have a lot of eyeballs pointed in his direction.<\/p>\n
\u200d<\/p>\n
The return of Taylor Hendricks<\/p>\n
Until Bailey walked across the Barclays Center stage last June, Hendricks had been the Jazz\u2019s highest draft pick in this rebuild cycle. But after an uneven rookie season and an injury that cost him virtually all of year two, we still need to see him operate as more than an idea.<\/p>\n
It took a while for Hendricks to earn regular minutes as a rookie, but once he did, there was some pretty encouraging stuff. His shooting improved to 38% from three, 43% from the corners, and 57.8% overall true shooting. He showed potential as an on-ball defender even against some pretty lofty competition. He was ready for a bigger role in year two, but a gruesome injury just nine quarters into the season derailed that.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s now back and not being at all shy when talking about his goals; he proudly announced on media day that he wants to be a top NBA\u00a0defender. That\u2019s a pretty bold aspiration for someone still under 1,000 career minutes, but the instincts were there, and the body may have caught up since we saw him last. The leg injury didn\u2019t keep him from the weight room, it appears, as he\u2019s visibly bigger in the upper body.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s already used the preseason to answer some questions about how fluid and\/or timid he might look after a missed year.\u00a0But there\u00a0are more reasons why he\u2019ll be an intriguing watch:\u00a0How will he move with his healed leg and bigger upper body?\u00a0Will the injury have affected his psyche or his appetite for contact? Can he channel the outside shooting again? Can he occasionally dribble a basketball too? Will there be rhythm calibrations? Can he still guard the best opposing player, almost regardless of position?<\/p>\n
\u200d<\/p>\n
The minutes battle at guard<\/p>\n
The Jazz\u2019s second selection in each of the last three drafts has been a point guard. Now all three need reps to continue to grow, which is why the questions around these three very different guards are all very interconnected. So we\u2019ll tackle Keyonte George, Isaiah Collier and Walt Clayton Jr. as a group.<\/p>\n
George has had a ton of opportunity, as the minutes leader on the 2024-25 Jazz (and virtual co-leader in 2023-24, just 52 total minutes behind Collin Sexton). Utah drafted him with the hope of making him more of a lead guard type after he mostly played the two (and even three) in college. It didn\u2019t happen right away and they eventually moved him into more of a bench sniper role midway through last season. But coaches have lauded his offseason work, so maybe he\u2019ll have a fresh chance to show he can engineer an offense.<\/p>\n
Moving him to the bench didn\u2019t just maximize his knack for scoring; it also unlocked Collier\u2019s natural ability to see the court as a creator. Collier supplanted George as a starter, but he never got his 3-point percentage up over 30%. His low free-throw percentage (in college and with the Jazz) could indicate that he\u2019s not really destined to turn around the worrisome outside shooting marks. But his ability to bust defenses open with his driving and passing is a superpower the Jazz could use, especially post-Sexton and post-Jordan Clarkson.<\/p>\n
There was already a tug-of-war on minutes between those two, and now Clayton complicates that with his arrival after a scintillating senior season. He was the head of the snake on an NCAA title team, and he has looked very mature in the preseason. (He is, after all, the oldest of the three, despite being drafted latest.) Clayton\u2019s preseason shooting was less than awesome (34% from the field, 18% from deep), but his collegiate numbers indicate he\u2019ll be fine there eventually.\u00a0Free-throw shooting is also a pretty reliable indicator of pro shooting success, and he was solid from the stripe at Iona and Florida (and went 13-for-13 in preseason).<\/p>\n
It will be hard to give all three of these guys signifcant point guard minutes. Obviously the Jazz can slide someone to the two to create more opportunities, but that has downstream impacts. So the distribution of opportunities here is bound to be a storyline throughout the season.<\/p>\n
\u200d<\/p>\n
Oh yeah, the All-Star<\/p>\n
With all the young guys whose growth could serve as an inflection point, it\u2019s sometimes easy to overlook just how much we could still learn about Lauri Markkanen that would be relevant to an eventual title pursuit. That starts of course with the question of how long he\u2019ll be in Utah at all, but the Jazz continue to insist the suspense there is overblown.<\/p>\n
On the actual court, Markkanen\u2019s base level of awesomeness makes it hard to be more curious here than with the guys listed above, but there are still questions about how the Jazz could and should use him. Last year he was mostly a brazen shot-hunter, and that\u2019s fine given what the goals were then. But it would be interesting to use this interstitial phase to experiment with his potential as more than an elite off-ball weapon.<\/p>\n
In his All-Star season, Markkanen finished 60 possessions directly out of P&R\u00a0action as the ball handler. The subsequent two seasons featured 28 such plays \u2014 combined. That may never be a huge part of his diet, but why wouldn\u2019t the Jazz occasionally sprinkle those in as a fact-finding exercise, since they\u2019re not exactly trying to maximize wins anyway?\u00a0Similarly, isolation attempts represent less than 5% of his possession mix despite the fact that he\u2019s consistently been above average at it, and he hardly ever posts up smaller defenders anymore. So maybe when we say he doesn\u2019t have self-creation in his repertoire, what we really mean is that he just hasn\u2019t had the reps to explore it. He had fewer drives per game last year than Svi Mykhailiuk.<\/p>\n
During his EuroBasket run, Finland trusted Markkanen to create off the bounce<\/a>, a tantalizing thing for a 7-footer with his skill set. It would be fun to revisit his 2022-23 shot profile when he wasn\u2019t exclusively shooting off staggers and pindowns. I\u2019d also love to see him evolve more as a passer; he had two or fewer assists in 41 of his 47 games played last season, and that\u2019s odd for someone who touches the ball as often as he does.<\/p>\n \u200d<\/p>\n Playing time for young wings<\/p>\n Brice Sensabaugh continues to look like a professional bucket-getter. He followed up a ridiculous summer league performance with 56-43-89 shooting splits in the preseason. He might be poised to take over Clarkson\u2019s old role of designated bench gunner, especially if George continues to start. He\u2019s a knockdown shooter, and he has good rim finishing stats despite not being a leaper. It\u2019s not hard to imagine him having something like a 16-ppg season if he plays a few more minutes and gets to the line more often (one clear area for offensive improvement).<\/p>\n Only 15 other players at 6\u20196\u2033 or under have ever posted a stat-qualified season at .610+ true shooting in their first or second year in the league.<\/p>\n Cody Williams, on the other hand, is still struggling on that end:\u00a039-29-83 preseason shooting splits after a 32-26-73 rookie season. He has however shown some defensive ability and an improved body. At this point every minute he plays will be in the name of development, but that\u2019s OK\u00a0given where the Jazz are at.<\/p>\n For now, they\u2019re both specialists in a way:\u00a0Sensabaugh is a scorer\u2019s scorer, and Williams will mostly be on the floor to guard. But both need to round out what they\u2019re lacking if they\u2019re going to be relevant pieces on a playoff team someday. The problem is that it will be hard to get both of them big minutes. Bailey and the three point guards will take up most of the 96 available backcourt minutes each night. Sensabaugh and Williams can both shift to the 3, but then you\u2019re running into Markkanen and Hendricks on the depth chart. And that\u2019s assuming zero minutes for the veteran ball handlers, and it\u2019s just not realistic to expect that Kyle Anderson and Mykhailiuk won\u2019t play at all. Meaning that these two will really have to earn their playing time.<\/p>\n \u200d<\/p>\n What is Flip?<\/p>\n After playing an estimated 83% of his rookie minutes at center, every second of Kyle Filipowski\u2019s preseason was spent next to nominal center. That\u2019s a pretty clear sign that the Jazz think his most fruitful NBA\u00a0path is as a 4.<\/p>\n With Flip\u2019s vision and shooting, he could certainly operate as a floor-spacing 5 at one end. The conundrum with the second-year pro is that he hasn\u2019t looked like someone who can anchor a defense. Opponents are generally unbothered by Flip\u2019s interior presence (71% rim defense), so he may spend the year proving he can move his feet well enough to be considered a credible defensive forward. That might be his key to a long career.<\/p>\n It will be interesting to watch to see Flip\u2019s net rating splits when he\u2019s on the court with different centers:\u00a0Walker Kessler, Jusuf Nurkic, Kevin Love. And then when every blue moon or so they play him as a smallball five, let\u2019s pay extra close attention to how the defense looks in those minutes.<\/p>\n \u200d<\/p>\n Kessler combos<\/p>\n Kessler is of course going to be a really important piece of what the Jazz do. By nature of the fact that he\u2019s already a solid starter-quality big, there\u2019s less mystery around him than his younger brethren. And unlike Markkanen, we already sort of understand the outlines of\u00a0Kessler\u2019s role on an eventual good Jazz team. That\u2019s why I\u00a0have Kessler lower than the others.<\/p>\n But that certainly doesn\u2019t mean he\u2019s a finished product, as evidenced by his sudden burst of outside shots late last season and his eye-popping eight assists in a lone preseason outing. I\u2019m most interested to see Kessler in combination with other players. Which guard will help unlock his prowess as a rim diver? Will it work if the Jazz go super long with Bailey-Markkanen-Hendricks-Kessler and a guard? Can the Walk-Flip combo provide more than it did in 261 minutes last year (-21.1 per 100)?<\/p>\n \u200d<\/p>\n The vets<\/p>\n And then, of course, there are the five non-star vets. Nurkic appears to be the backup center for now and has been kind of interesting as a ball moving big man with some floor spacing. Love, Mykhailiuk and Anderson only played situationally in the preseason, and Georges Niang won\u2019t debut until sometime in November.<\/p>\n Honestly, the season shouldn\u2019t be about these five guys. But there will be times when their involvement will help us learn something new and different about one of the other 10.<\/p>\n \u200d\u200d<\/p>\n \n\tRelated\n<\/p>\n \t\t
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