{"id":233950,"date":"2025-10-23T02:33:13","date_gmt":"2025-10-23T02:33:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/233950\/"},"modified":"2025-10-23T02:33:13","modified_gmt":"2025-10-23T02:33:13","slug":"five-signs-that-generative-ai-is-losing-traction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/233950\/","title":{"rendered":"Five signs that Generative AI is losing traction"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Earlier today I wrote about <a href=\"https:\/\/open.substack.com\/pub\/garymarcus\/p\/is-vibe-coding-dying?r=8tdk6&amp;utm_campaign=post&amp;utm_medium=web&amp;showWelcomeOnShare=false\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">how vibe coding seemed to be losing steam<\/a>, with usage declining, quite likely because people are growing disenchanted with the results.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!Xuc2!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c75a8ba-08f0-4600-b869-c3fcf0faaa4e_565x411.webp\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/0c75a8ba-08f0-4600-b869-c3fcf0faaa4e_565x.jpeg\" width=\"565\" height=\"411\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/0c75a8ba-08f0-4600-b869-c3fcf0faaa4e_565x411.webp&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:411,&quot;width&quot;:565,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:15804,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/webp&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/garymarcus.substack.com\/i\/176820231?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0c75a8ba-08f0-4600-b869-c3fcf0faaa4e_565x411.webp&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\"   fetchpriority=\"high\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>I just saw something that should be even more unsettling to anyone contemplating trillion dollar AI infrastructure plays:<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!BUOf!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Febf021f2-b0ca-4437-b08a-5e217b87f4d6_1405x1698.jpeg\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/ebf021f2-b0ca-4437-b08a-5e217b87f4d6_1405.jpeg\" width=\"1405\" height=\"1698\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/ebf021f2-b0ca-4437-b08a-5e217b87f4d6_1405x1698.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:1698,&quot;width&quot;:1405,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:290212,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/garymarcus.substack.com\/i\/176820231?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Febf021f2-b0ca-4437-b08a-5e217b87f4d6_1405x1698.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\"   class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This also fits with this graph <a href=\"https:\/\/garymarcus.substack.com\/p\/openais-future-foretold?utm_source=publication-search\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">from Apollo Global Management\u2019s Chief Economist Torsten Slok, based on Census Data, from early September<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!E3JS!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F33068432-8a78-4b67-bb06-06dc03cd0372_1456x825.webp\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/33068432-8a78-4b67-bb06-06dc03cd0372_1456.jpeg\" width=\"1456\" height=\"825\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/33068432-8a78-4b67-bb06-06dc03cd0372_1456x825.webp&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:825,&quot;width&quot;:1456,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:53030,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/webp&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/garymarcus.substack.com\/i\/176820231?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F33068432-8a78-4b67-bb06-06dc03cd0372_1456x825.webp&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\"   class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>TechCrunch just reported that \u201cChatGPT\u2019s mobile app is seeing slowing download growth and daily use\u201d based on data from Apptopia<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!jia0!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed8ecf18-0222-4ca5-a889-fae6d6ca23d3_1388x803.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/ed8ecf18-0222-4ca5-a889-fae6d6ca23d3_1388.jpeg\" width=\"1388\" height=\"803\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/ed8ecf18-0222-4ca5-a889-fae6d6ca23d3_1388x803.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:803,&quot;width&quot;:1388,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:169113,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/garymarcus.substack.com\/i\/176820231?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fed8ecf18-0222-4ca5-a889-fae6d6ca23d3_1388x803.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\"   loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>I would bet a lot of money that OpenAI\u2019s Sora 2-driven competitor to TikTok will experience a similar rise and fall.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, just as I writing this, MSNBC reported that  Airbnb CEO Chesky said on CNBC that \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/technology\/artificial-intelligence\/airbnb-ceo-chesky-says-chatgpt-isn-t-quite-robust-enough-to-integrate-into-travel-app\/ar-AA1OYNMy\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ChatGPT isn\u2019t \u2018quite robust enough\u2019 to integrate into travel app<\/a>\u201d. <\/p>\n<p>\u00a7 <\/p>\n<p>If and when the whole generative AI edifice comes crashing down, it will be in no small part because too many otherwise smart investors read too many graphs\u2014from \u201cLLM scaling\u201d to usage statistics\u2014too naively, assuming that things had been going up for a while would continue to go up at the same pace, indefinitely.   <\/p>\n<p>This is, of course, a version the trillion pound baby fallacy I have mentioned before:.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/$s_!YD3Y!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe80e582b-b30e-4729-b37d-3ea43f7f895b_1279x903.png\" data-component-name=\"Image2ToDOM\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" class=\"image-link image2 is-viewable-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/e80e582b-b30e-4729-b37d-3ea43f7f895b_1279.jpeg\" width=\"1279\" height=\"903\" data-attrs=\"{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com\/public\/images\/e80e582b-b30e-4729-b37d-3ea43f7f895b_1279x903.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:903,&quot;width&quot;:1279,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1659985,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image\/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/garymarcus.substack.com\/i\/176820231?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe80e582b-b30e-4729-b37d-3ea43f7f895b_1279x903.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}\" alt=\"\"   loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>I will close with something that a financial analyst named Ross Hendricks wrote on X  a couple days ago that may well turn out to be prophetic: \u201cUS tech co\u2019s spending half a trillion each year is not bullish\u2026 it\u2019s the single greatest exercise of capital destruction in history\u201d.  Investors might wise up, any day now\u2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Earlier today I wrote about how vibe coding seemed to be losing steam, with usage declining, quite likely&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":233951,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[256,254,255,64,63,105],"class_list":{"0":"post-233950","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-artificial-intelligence","8":"tag-ai","9":"tag-artificial-intelligence","10":"tag-artificialintelligence","11":"tag-au","12":"tag-australia","13":"tag-technology"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/233950","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=233950"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/233950\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/233951"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=233950"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=233950"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=233950"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}