It was seven years ago that the most dynamic player in the NFL first saved John Harbaugh from speculation about his job security. Can he do it again \u2014 and show that Derrick Henry is not washed up? Why not?<\/p>\n
There are certainly believers out there \u2014 at 25-1, the Ravens have the same odds to win the Super Bowl as the 5-2 Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. (I think you\u2019re better off just taking Jackson to win MVP at 35-1 \u2014 c\u2019mon, Baker Mayfield and Drake Maye? \u2014 but what do I know.)<\/p>\n
The defense has to get a lot better, and I don\u2019t even like the Ravens that much against the Chicago Bears on Sunday, despite it being a best bet (shhh, we\u2019ll explain in a bit). But at least the players won\u2019t have cornhole to distract them. Maybe the coaches are sneaking in and playing for beers late at night, too.<\/p>\n
Hey, we happened to get the bag in the hole on four of our five best bets last week to make it two straight winning weeks. Our one loser scored 33 points in the fourth quarter. The ugly overall record? Nobody cares about that but the people in the comments section.<\/p>\n
Last week\u2019s record: 7-8 against the spread, 4-1 on best bets<\/p>\n
Season record: 48-56-4 against the spread, 18-17 on best bets<\/p>\n
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here<\/a> for live odds.<\/p>\n Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) | 8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, Amazon Prime<\/p>\n Carson Wentz is starting again for the Vikings, who yelled \u201cshort week\u201d as they look for any possible reason to not play J.J. McCarthy<\/a>. Amazing that they had Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones last year. The Chargers\u2019 defense will show some pride at home after getting blown out by the Colts.<\/p>\n The pick: Chargers <\/p>\n Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n The Bears have won four in a row (3-0-1 ATS), and we have had them every week. Feels like a bad time to jump off, as this spread seems way too big for a 1-5 team hosting a 4-2 team, but we\u2019re glad you asked \u2014 since 2003, teams with a win percentage of .200 or worse and favored by three or more points over a team with a winning record have gone 30-14-2 ATS, per Bet Labs.<\/p>\n So, throw out the fact that Caleb Williams completed 7 of 8 passes for 102 yards against Saints blitzes last week, and that the Ravens rank 13th in blitz rate but are the only team without a sack when sending an extra rusher. As a wise man named Fast Fat Frank once told me, if there is no reason to lay 6.5 points, sometimes you gotta lay 6.5 points.<\/p>\n The pick: Ravens<\/p>\n New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n The shoddy Bengals defense was overshadowed by the punchless Steelers defense last week, and old man Joe Flacco got all the flowers. He might not be 40 like Flacco, but new (not official yet) Jets QB Tyrod Taylor is no spring chicken, and he would like a moment in the sun, too. He actually poses a threat when throwing the ball.<\/p>\n The Bengals don\u2019t stop or cover running backs \u2014 they have the league\u2019s lowest stuff rate, and RBs average 7.8 yards per target against them (fifth-most) \u2014 so Breece Hall is about to have quite the trade-showcase game. Trey Hendrickson was back at Bengals practice Wednesday, while Jets receiver Garrett Wilson was not. That should push this spread up past 7, and we\u2019re all in if Taylor plays.<\/p>\n The pick: Jets <\/p>\n Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (-7.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa apparently sat down Monday for a chat. Probably to discuss the best tapas spots in Madrid. The Dolphins hit Spain to play the Commanders in Week 11, and the brass must not want to fire McDaniel before the bye the following week.<\/p>\n The only thing worse than Tua is the run defense \u2014 it\u2019s on pace to allow 2,707 yards (the 1978 Bills somehow allowed 3,228) and now has a date with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.<\/p>\n The pick: Falcons <\/p>\n Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-7) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n Mike Vrabel got his ounce of blood in Tennessee last week (such an easy pick), and you would think the 5-2 Patriots might be in for a letdown here. Even going against big, bad Dillon Gabriel. The last quarterback to throw the ball 100 times with two touchdowns and zero interceptions in his first three starts was Raiders owner Tom Brady.<\/p>\n But we think more than 4-yard dump-offs will be required here, as the Patriots can stop the run, and Gabriel won\u2019t jump on someone\u2019s shoulders and throw off Vrabel\u2019s impressive first-year march to the playoffs.<\/p>\n The pick: Patriots <\/p>\n San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-1.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n Maybe the biggest matchup edge on the whole board: Niners play caller Kyle Shanahan versus Texans offensive coordinator Nick Caley. The 49ers lost another pass rusher in Bryce Huff but somehow do it again as Mac Jones improves to 5-1.<\/p>\n The pick: 49ers <\/p>\n Buffalo Bills (-7.5) at Carolina Panthers | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n The Bills have lost two in a row and haven\u2019t covered the spread in four straight, and here we are laying more than a touchdown against a hot Panthers team (three consecutive wins and also 3-0 at home). Hmmm. Andy Dalton is starting for an injured Bryce Young and will be asked to hand the ball off against a Bills defense allowing a league-worst 5.8 yards per carry. Hmmm. See our Ravens logic earlier and just take Josh Allen and lay the points.<\/p>\n The pick: Bills <\/p>\n New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n I loved the Eagles against the Giants two weeks ago, and they got throttled. You\u2019d like to think some lessons were learned. Last week, Jalen Hurts went 5 for 5 for 216 yards and three TDs on passes of 20-plus air yards. Also, the Eagles got some guys back from injury to help prevent Giants running back Cam Skattebo from taking off his shirt and going all WWE again.<\/p>\n The pick: Eagles<\/p>\n \n Can the Eagles contain Cam Skattebo this time around? (Al Bello \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) at New Orleans Saints | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox<\/p>\n Monday night was a rough one for Baker Mayfield. He lost Mike Evans again and then took a beating \u2014 the Buccaneers allowed 30 total pressures to the Lions, the most in any NFL game this season. It\u2019s a short week, and we think the Bucs aren\u2019t going to bounce back physically or mentally against a plucky Saints team that they can\u2019t possibly take seriously. Oh, and the Buccaneers have allowed a league-high 441 receiving yards to running backs. Spencer Rattler to Alvin Kamara for the cover.<\/p>\n The pick: Saints <\/p>\n Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-14) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n Being a linemaker in Las Vegas is not all glamorous stuff. It\u2019s not all late-night steak-and-egg specials, discount tickets to ABBA cover bands and hearing about everyone\u2019s bad luck. Sometimes you have to work hard and come up with a number for the hottest team in the league against the second-worst. And 14 points isn\u2019t big enough.<\/p>\n The pick: Colts <\/p>\n Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos (-3.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS<\/p>\n I have no idea why the allegedly great Broncos defense, with two top corners and Nik Bonitto, is giving up 32 points to the receiver-less Giants. Someone mentioned they have had a rough travel schedule all around the world, and are finally back on a regular schedule at home. Fine. I will also take them because the Cowboys\u2019 defense is allowing 29.4 points per game.<\/p>\n The pick: Broncos <\/p>\n Green Bay Packers (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC<\/p>\n Aaron Rodgers said Wednesday that this is not a revenge game<\/a> because he loved it in Green Bay, except for his last year. Well, in that case, we\u2019re out. And we really wanted no part in the Steelers\u2019 defense again anyway. Especially against Mr. Sunday Night \u2014 Jordan Love has the highest career passer rating on NBC\u2019s \u201cSunday Night Football\u201d (minimum five games) at 121.1, with 12 touchdown passes and no interceptions.<\/p>\n The pick: Packers <\/p>\n Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5) | 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC\/ESPN<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/GettyImages-2240191307-scaled.jpg\")
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