{"id":235736,"date":"2025-10-23T19:12:08","date_gmt":"2025-10-23T19:12:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/235736\/"},"modified":"2025-10-23T19:12:08","modified_gmt":"2025-10-23T19:12:08","slug":"early-verdict-on-every-afl-clubs-2026-chances-premiership-contenders-finals-hopefuls-bottom-six-predictions-who-will-rise-and-fall-analysis-latest-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/au\/235736\/","title":{"rendered":"Early verdict on every AFL club\u2019s 2026 chances, premiership contenders, finals hopefuls, bottom six predictions, who will rise and fall, analysis, latest news"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The 2026 AFL season is still an eternity away, but with the trade period over and done with, fans and pundits now for the first time can get a gauge on where their club stands going into next season.<\/p>\n<p>A whopping eight clubs we believe fit the bill of being flag contenders, another four more loom as finals contenders, while a further six sides will be hopeful of separating themselves from the bottom third of the ladder.<\/p>\n<p>Foxfooty.com.au assesses all 18 clubs and predicts whether they\u2019ll challenge for the top-eight race, or face a dip in fortunes.<\/p>\n<p>Watch live coverage of the 2025 Telstra AFL Draft on Kayo Sports 19-20 Nov | New to Kayo? <a href=\"https:\/\/kayosports.com.au?pg=afl&amp;extcamp=fsaeditoriallinkafl-edt-fsp-lnk-awr-grc-afl-kyo&amp;channel=fsa&amp;campaign=fsacontra&amp;voucher=\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Join now and get your first month for just $1.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>WHAT&#8217;S GAMBLING REALLY COSTING YOU? Set a deposit limit. For Free and confidential support call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.<\/p>\n<p>ADELAIDE CROWS \u2014 FINALS CONTENDER<\/p>\n<p>This year\u2019s minor premiers could hardly have done more during the 2025 home-and-away season, but their September performance was well below par. Their rapid rise up the ladder was remarkable, but a tougher 2026 fixture will now reflect that success, making it harder to cement themselves as a top-eight mainstay. Coupled with their straight-sets finals exit, it\u2019s difficult to label Adelaide as genuine flag contenders just yet. Had they secured a marquee midfielder to address their engine room concerns, the outlook might be different. But, for now, it feels like they\u2019re at least another season away from truly challenging for the premiership.<\/p>\n<p>BRISBANE LIONS \u2014 FLAG CONTENDER<\/p>\n<p>The least surprising verdict of any club in the league. Having now won back-to-back premierships, Chris Fagan\u2019s troops have somehow got even stronger with Oscar Allen and Sam Draper joining their changerooms this off-season. The loss of two-time flag hero Brandon Starcevich will be sorely felt, but given a handful of genuine guns missed their grand final win this season, there\u2019s no doubt over their depth in any line. No one since Hawthorn last decade has won three in a row, but it is very hard to not have the Lions as the favourites once more in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>CARLTON \u2014 BOTTOM SIX<\/p>\n<p>The Blues are perhaps the unluckiest of the half a dozen teams stuck with the \u2018bottom six\u2019 label. But, with as much turnover as they\u2019ve had this off-season \u2014 plus the departure of a two-time Coleman Medallist \u2014 there is scepticism about. As they know all about these last two years, the competition is as strong as it\u2019s ever been at the top; only making their route to finals harder. The output from stars such as Jacob Weitering, Harry McKay and Sam Walsh will be as critical as ever, while the inclusion of Swans duo Will Hayward and Ollie Florent is certainly handy. Add in Jagga Smith, and if the Blues can maintain a healthy list, this prediction could be far from the mark, but the questions at this stage are valid.<\/p>\n<p>COLLINGWOOD \u2014 FLAG CONTENDER<\/p>\n<p>How long is a piece of string? The oldest team in V\/AFL history will go around again in 2026 \u2014 only with even less time on their side. No one doubts Collingwood\u2019s ability to win it all, as they did in 2023, but unlike most rivals, they remain a ticking time bomb given their veteran-heavy list profile. The loss of Brody Mihocek has been partly offset by the arrival of Sydney forward Jack Buller, more than eight years his junior. However, with Mason Cox and Tom Mitchell among those delisted, Craig McRae and his staff are clearly backing their next wave of talent to provide adequate depth. With their first draft selection not until pick 39, it\u2019s unlikely they\u2019ll unearth an instant flag difference-maker&#8230; but stranger things have happened!<\/p>\n<p>Cox keen to continue career at new club | 01:03<\/p>\n<p>ESSENDON \u2014 BOTTOM SIX<\/p>\n<p>Amid all the criticism directed at Essendon in 2025, their inability to keep a healthy list was undoubtedly their biggest hurdle. In fact, their best 23 in 2026 will look almost unrecognisable compared to what they fielded in the back half of this season. That doesn\u2019t necessarily elevate them into genuine finals contention, but they should clearly rise above the bottom three. Concerns remain around the make-up of their midfield, with no obvious gamebreaker to consistently support Zach Merrett. Their best defensive unit however is more than serviceable, while their forward line, when it clicks, has the potential to cause serious problems for opposition coaches. The delistings of senior players in Todd Goldstein, Dylan Shiel and Jayden Laverde will open the door for greater exposure at youth level, though it comes at the cost of on-field experience and leadership.<\/p>\n<p>FREMANTLE \u2014 FLAG CONTENDER<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxsports.com.au\/afl\/afl-2024-early-verdict-on-every-afl-clubs-2025-chances-finals-contenders-bottom-four-premiership-favourites-who-will-rise-and-fall-analysis-latest-news\/news-story\/bb4d0cbc64737b56cbc0a9323df4cfbb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">12 months ago, we listed Fremantle as a flag contender<\/a> \u2014 despite their absence from finals since 2022. They achieved that first step this year, but again fell short of a semi-final berth. The recruitment of Judd McVee is a valuable addition to their defensive half, but it\u2019s now clear the Dockers must rise on the strength of their current list. With arguably the best spine in the competition, 2026 looms as go time for Justin Longmuir and his squad. The retirements of Nat Fyfe, Michael Walters, James Aish and Quinton Narkle may stretch their depth, but at full health they should be firmly in the top-four frame. After three seasons of teasing their potential, Longmuir still enters 2026 under pressure to convert promise into a genuine premiership tilt \u2014 even on the back of a strong 16-win home-and-away campaign.<\/p>\n<p>GEELONG \u2014 FLAG CONTENDER<\/p>\n<p>The 2025 grand finalists will be among the league\u2019s elite again in 2026, but in a similar (but less extreme) way to Collingwood, the clock is quietly ticking. Captain Patrick Dangerfield leads a core of Cats veterans \u2014 Rhys Stanley, Mark Blicavs, Tom Stewart and Jeremy Cameron \u2014 all set to be 33 or older by next April. While Geelong has plenty of talent entering or just entering their prime to keep them at the top, Connor O\u2019Sullivan is the only player under 21 on their list to have logged more than two AFL games. Once more, it looks like the Cats are walking a tightrope of sorts with their player profiles, but after years of sustained excellence, we really can\u2019t question it until their results suggest so too!<\/p>\n<p>Scott full of optimism for Origin | 02:23<\/p>\n<p>GOLD COAST SUNS \u2014 FLAG CONTENDER<\/p>\n<p>After 15 long seasons, the Suns are officially (and finally) in the premiership window. Damien Hardwick\u2019s second year at the helm was a commendable success, and with their list set to strengthen further in 2026, they have a genuine shot at the crown. The acquisitions of Christian Petracca and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan bring enormous upside, and are arguably a surplus given the club\u2019s already strong depth through the midfield and forward line. That said, their inclusion has come at the cost of several depth players lost to rival clubs. While Gold Coast\u2019s list was healthier than most in 2025, injuries could expose a few gaps through the centre of the ground if luck doesn\u2019t go their way.<\/p>\n<p>GWS GIANTS \u2014 FLAG CONTENDER<\/p>\n<p>Consistency. Consistency. Consistency. If the Giants can produce their best football more regularly in 2026, they\u2019re capable of beating anyone. The prime example: their explosive third quarter in this year\u2019s elimination final against Hawthorn, where they slashed a seven-goal deficit in under half a term. The bonus addition of Clayton Oliver and the unexpected retention of Leek Aleer significantly bolster their depth; now it\u2019s about translating that talent into week-to-week performance. At their peak, they\u2019re as dangerous as any side in the competition \u2014 which is why we still rate them as a genuine premiership contender.<\/p>\n<p>HAWTHORN \u2014 FLAG CONTENDER<\/p>\n<p>Sam Mitchell\u2019s side has now shown tangible progress over two seasons, positioning themselves firmly in the premiership window for a second consecutive pre-season. However, the club will feel they missed a major opportunity to make an impact during the recent trade period, with their all-in approach for Zach Merrett ultimately falling short. The result leaves their midfield still one genuine match-winner short \u2014 a gap only a fully fit Will Day can hope to bridge. While Day\u2019s absence earlier exposed their on-ball brigade, the departure of James Worpel to Geelong further reduces the pool of ready-made midfield options. Many will expect the Hawks to go deep once more in September, but can they topple the likes of Brisbane and Geelong come crunch time?<\/p>\n<p>Dunstall backs Hawks Merrett decision | 01:16<\/p>\n<p>MELBOURNE \u2014 BOTTOM SIX<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s not impossible for Melbourne to rebound from their underwhelming 2025 campaign, but new head coach Steven King has a significant challenge on his hands. Although the club encouraged Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver to explore opportunities elsewhere, their exits have left a glaring midfield void. On the positive side, Jack Steele shapes as a valuable inclusion both on and off the field, while Brody Mihocek provides much-needed support in attack alongside Jake Melksham and Jacob van Rooyen. Still, the question marks are too substantial right now to confidently project the Demons finishing outside the bottom third of the ladder. It\u2019s not that they lack capability, but on paper, at least a dozen clubs appear better positioned heading into 2026.<\/p>\n<p>NORTH MELBOURNE \u2014 BOTTOM SIX<\/p>\n<p>Sorry Roos fans, we just haven\u2019t seen enough yet to re-label you yet. The upside within the four walls art Arden Street remains, but a relatively inactive trade period and no first-round pick in this year\u2019s draft doesn\u2019t quite set the tone. Of course, the likes of Harry Sheezel, George Wardlaw, Colby McKercher and Finn O\u2019Sullivan will pocket another pre-season under their belt and lead Alastair Clarkson\u2019s youth. List manager Brady Rawlings was adamant during the trade period that their key defensive stocks are<\/p>\n<p>PORT ADELAIDE \u2014 FINALS CONTENDER<\/p>\n<p>By the barest of margins, the Power have made the cut as a finals contender. The nucleus of their side is just far too good to not be pushing for a September birth, with the likes of Zak Butters, Connor Rozee, Jason Horne-Francis, Miles Bergman and Mitch Georgiades all certified stars or guns. That being said, there are still notable flaws within their list that were easily exposed in 2025 amid an injury crisis. Their key defensive stocks are thin beyond Aliir Aliir, while the retirement of Willie Rioli leaves an even greater void in their small forward stocks. Plus, they still haven\u2019t found an effective replacement for Dan Houston off half-back. It leaves new head coach Josh Carr with a lot to work out from the get-go, but with an easier fixture next year, there is a world where they sneak into the top eight.<\/p>\n<p>Have we seen the AFLW Mark of the Year? | 01:03<\/p>\n<p>RICHMOND \u2014 BOTTOM SIX<\/p>\n<p>Almost no one predicted Richmond would finish 2025 with just five wins, and even with another year of development, a finals tilt still feels unlikely in 2026. If Adem Yze\u2019s side can again separate themselves from West Coast and remain on pace with North Melbourne, the season will be viewed as a success \u2014 unless the Kangaroos unexpectedly fall apart. Delisted Cat Patrick Retschko arrived via an unprecedented trade as their sole off-season addition, but with picks 3 and 4 in this year\u2019s draft, the Tigers are well placed to inject more elite youth and set their sights on a more serious surge in 2027.<\/p>\n<p>ST KILDA \u2014 FINALS CONTENDER<\/p>\n<p>No club faces a sharper rise in external expectation next season than St Kilda. After adding a suite of reliable recruits and successfully retaining star wantaway Rowan Marshall, Ross Lyon\u2019s side has run out of excuses. With emerging talent progressing and a genuine superstar in Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera to build around, it\u2019s finals or failure. The lingering question is who will consistently fire in attack alongside (or in place of) Max King. Until that\u2019s answered, their forward-line structure looms as the Saints\u2019 most pressing vulnerability heading into Round 1.<\/p>\n<p>SYDNEY SWANS \u2014 FLAG CONTENDER<\/p>\n<p>Sydney\u2019s underwhelming 2025 can partly be attributed to a disastrous run with injuries to key personnel. But heading into 2026, there are no excuses \u2014 particularly with the addition of dual Coleman Medallist Charlie Curnow. A full season under head coach Dean Cox also bodes well for his own confidence at the helm, with continuity sure to only grow. Last year marked the first time since 2020 that the Swans missed finals, but their strong form in the back half of the season suggests that outcome shouldn\u2019t strike twice. With Curnow now in the fold, the only potential weakness lies in their key defensive stocks \u2014 an area that could be exposed if injury troubles return.<\/p>\n<p>Cox &#8216;honoured&#8217; to lead WA Origin side | 01:49<\/p>\n<p>WEST COAST EAGLES \u2014 BOTTOM SIX<\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately for Eagles fans, 2026 may not look markedly different from 2025. While the defensive additions of Brandon Starcevich and Tylar Young are astute, the departures of Oscar Allen, Liam Ryan and Campbell Chesser \u2014 who was beginning to show promising development \u2014 further deplete their depth. Add the retirements of Mitch McGovern, Dom Sheed and Jayden Hunt, and there\u2019s no guarantee things won\u2019t get worse before they improve. On a more optimistic note, the club will hope Elliot Yeo can finally move past his injury struggles, while potentially welcoming two top-end draft picks. It\u2019s also worth noting that as part of the AFL\u2019s assistance package, West Coast will receive four additional rookie list spots, which they are expected to use on delisted, ready-made AFL talent. Bottom six? Yes. A chance to move off the bottom of the ladder? Sure!<\/p>\n<p>WESTERN BULLDOGS \u2014 FINALS CONTENDER<\/p>\n<p>The Bulldogs were cruelly denied a finals berth in 2025 despite finishing with 14 wins and a percentage of 137, but unfortunately, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foxsports.com.au\/afl\/afl-2025-every-clubs-list-chasm-list-problems-and-weaknesses-analysis-areas-of-need-draft-delisted-free-agency-and-ssp-targets-latest-news\/news-story\/99f023d15c98362041d3cfde6b098d14\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">they haven\u2019t filled their biggest list chasm<\/a> \u2014 a dependable key defender. Combined with their track record of struggling against top-tier opposition, it raises serious doubts about how much damage Luke Beveridge\u2019s side can do even if they force their way into September. Their star-studded midfield remains intact, while the continued rise of Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton in attack hints at another level still to come. Yet, as 2025 demonstrated, that alone isn\u2019t enough to elevate them into true premiership contention. A significant shift in their defensive profile may be required before they can genuinely enter the competition\u2019s top bracket.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The 2026 AFL season is still an eternity away, but with the trade period over and done 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